OT - College Admissions Math

[J187Money]

@upstater or someone else - can someone reconcile this for me?

UCONN admissions folks say things like - we are only admitting 3,500 kids, and we have over 35,000 applicants this year.

However, when you look at UCONN's published "acceptance rate" - it is 53%.

So - is it that they end up accepting 18,000 kids by the time they accept kids, and then kids decide to go elsewhere so they take kids off the waitlist, etc?

I know kids apply to 10 schools and only can say yes to 1 even if they get into all 10 - so I'm wondering if that's where the discrepancy is. In which case the exclusivity isn't nearly what they try and say that it is...

 

[upstater]

@upstater or someone else - can someone reconcile this for me?

UCONN admissions folks say things like - we are only admitting 3,500 kids, and we have over 35,000 applicants this year.

However, when you look at UCONN's published "acceptance rate" - it is 53%.

So - is it that they end up accepting 18,000 kids by the time they accept kids, and then kids decide to go elsewhere so they take kids off the waitlist, etc?

I know kids apply to 10 schools and only can say yes to 1 even if they get into all 10 - so I'm wondering if that's where the discrepancy is. In which case the exclusivity isn't nearly what they try and say that it is...

Yes, that is what is happening. But I'm surprised at the numbers still. It is hard to believe they only have one of every 5 admitted coming to UConn. Puts them in a very dangerous place.

53% is a good admittance rate. In a state of Conn's size, with only one state university, 50% is pretty good.

If anything, we're finding that there are a lot of talented kids (good grades, great SATs) who aim lower and end up at schools not as good as UConn. I've seen internal studies like this at my school. Far from what the media is telling, the American high school education system is producing a lot of talented students right now. I'm not sure if that's what the future holds with the radical revisions in primary and secondary education, but this is what the numbers show. SAT averages are down, but more kids than ever are also taking the test. In terms of sheer numbers, more bright students than ever before are produced. I'm talking about this because the slots at schools like UConn haven't risen to meet the demand. Instead, more kids than ever before are being crowded out.

 

[J187Money]

Thanks for clarifying - figured that is how it worked but appreciate your comments.

I think all of the braggadocio that the colleges do actually scares away the "good" applicant because they think they won't get in. By the numbers, my son has everything that UCONN would want, but his SAT scores are slightly below the "average" that UCONN publishes so he thinks he won't get in. I would posit that he won't be in the first 3500 admitted, but by round 3 he probably makes the cut.

Everyone panics about this stuff, but I kept looking at the acceptance rate v. the applications / slots at all of the schools my son applied to and I smelled a rat. I had him apply to a couple of safety schools (SCSU/CCSU) but all of the other schools were "reach" schools based on the "math", but I imagine he gets into 75% of them. With his SATs I kept him away from Ivies and super exclusive schools, but I think once you get away from the top schools it is a lot easier to get in than it appears...

 

[JMick]

Thanks for clarifying - figured that is how it worked but appreciate your comments.

I think all of the braggadocio that the colleges do actually scares away the "good" applicant because they think they won't get in. By the numbers, my son has everything that UCONN would want, but his SAT scores are slightly below the "average" that UCONN publishes so he thinks he won't get in. I would posit that he won't be in the first 3500 admitted, but by round 3 he probably makes the cut.

Everyone panics about this stuff, but I kept looking at the acceptance rate v. the applications / slots at all of the schools my son applied to and I smelled a rat. I had him apply to a couple of safety schools (SCSU/CCSU) but all of the other schools were "reach" schools based on the "math", but I imagine he gets into 75% of them. With his SATs I kept him away from Ivies and super exclusive schools, but I think once you get away from the top schools it is a lot easier to get in than it appears...

Just know that UConn weighs SATs very heavily. I know people that got into Storrs with sub 3.0 gpas but 1400 (Math/Reading) SATs and I also know people who were denied and placed at a branch with 3.9 gpas and 1100 SATs

 

[J187Money]

Just know that UConn weighs SATs very heavily. I know people that got into Storrs with sub 3.0 gpas but 1400 (Math/Reading) SATs and I also know people who were denied and placed at a branch with 3.9 gpas and 1100 SATs

Might be part of their marketing "shtick" - if you only admit people with high GPAs, then you can say that you only admit people with high GPAs.

Ultimately it is what it is, but I did tell the admissions folks - do whatever you like, but if my son doesn't get in, the checks stop coming.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

@J187Money not sure if it's the same as when I applied (fall 04) but they had rolling admissions back then and the earlier you applied the better. I applied to UConn and Penn State and found out I got into Penn State in October and UConn not much after. Would urge him to have everything ready to go by the start of senior year of HS.

 

[J187Money]

@J187Money not sure if it's the same as when I applied (fall 04) but they had rolling admissions back then and the earlier you applied the better. I applied to UConn and Penn State and found out I got into Penn State in October and UConn not much after. Would urge him to have everything ready to go by the start of senior year of HS.

He applied on 11/1. Still waiting. Got first acceptance today (CCSU). I expect he will get in ultimately, but the whole process seems very arbitrary.

 

[JMick]

@J187Money not sure if it's the same as when I applied (fall 04) but they had rolling admissions back then and the earlier you applied the better. I applied to UConn and Penn State and found out I got into Penn State in October and UConn not much after. Would urge him to have everything ready to go by the start of senior year of HS.

there's no early applicant process anymore - at least there wasn't when my sister applied a couple years ago

 

[J187Money]

there's no early applicant process anymore - at least there wasn't when my sister applied a couple years ago

Correct - he wasn't given the option of early decision.

 

[huskypantz]

He applied on 11/1. Still waiting. Got first acceptance today (CCSU). I expect he will get in ultimately, but the whole process seems very arbitrary.

Best of luck!

 

[ConnHuskBask]

He applied on 11/1. Still waiting. Got first acceptance today (CCSU). I expect he will get in ultimately, but the whole process seems very arbitrary.

That still is probably earlier than most kids anyways. Good luck to him and congratulations on CCSU.

there's no early applicant process anymore - at least there wasn't when my sister applied a couple years ago

It wasn't "early decision" but UConn and Penn State started reviewing and sending out acceptances as soon as applications were received. So just on a numbers game it was better to apply earlier when less applications and spots were filled. I only applied to 3 schools though, UConn, Penn State were like that, but North Carolina was not (didn't get into UNC anyways).

 

[kibblesnbits]

Thanks for clarifying - figured that is how it worked but appreciate your comments.

I think all of the braggadocio that the colleges do actually scares away the "good" applicant because they think they won't get in. By the numbers, my son has everything that UCONN would want, but his SAT scores are slightly below the "average" that UCONN publishes so he thinks he won't get in. I would posit that he won't be in the first 3500 admitted, but by round 3 he probably makes the cut.

Everyone panics about this stuff, but I kept looking at the acceptance rate v. the applications / slots at all of the schools my son applied to and I smelled a rat. I had him apply to a couple of safety schools (SCSU/CCSU) but all of the other schools were "reach" schools based on the "math", but I imagine he gets into 75% of them. With his SATs I kept him away from Ivies and super exclusive schools, but I think once you get away from the top schools it is a lot easier to get in than it appears...

It doesn't work that way with multiple rounds of 3500. Statistically, they know pretty closely what percentage of admitted students will accept (1 enrollee per 5 accepted is a 20% "yield"). So they can do the math to figure out roughly how many to accept in order to get the desired class size. If that's 53% of the applicants they might accept 50% and offer the next 5% a spot on the waiting list. That way they can react if the yield is at or below the expected level while not being overwhelmed if it goes up.

Good luck to your son.

 

[formerlurker]

I made the mistake of reading this thread while my girl was "getting ready for bed".

 

[uconnphil2016]

Good luck to your son! I'm sure he'll get in. If he doesn't and is dead set on going to UConn, it's very easy to transfer in after a year if you get good grades at another state university like CCSU, so keep that in mind as well.

 

[J187Money]

It doesn't work that way with multiple rounds of 3500. Statistically, they know pretty closely what percentage of admitted students will accept (1 enrollee per 5 accepted is a 20% "yield"). So they can do the math to figure out roughly how many to accept in order to get the desired class size. If that's 53% of the applicants they might accept 50% and offer the next 5% a spot on the waiting list. That way they can react if the yield is at or below the expected level while not being overwhelmed if it goes up.

Good luck to your son.

Of course you are right. I was just making a point that if the yield were 100% I know he wouldn't make the cut on the numbers. Given the yield and my status he will probably make it.

Thanks. What I wonder now is if he ends up getting into a bunch of other schools and uconn takes forever does he change his mind?

He has some D3 and D2 schools that want him to run. Which may trump his love for UCONN.

 

[J187Money]

Good luck to your son! I'm sure he'll get in. If he doesn't and is dead set on going to UConn, it's very easy to transfer in after a year if you get good grades at another state university like CCSU, so keep that in mind as well.

I'm not a big fan of transferring. Unless you are in a major that requires going to a certain school I'm not sure it is helpful. And if he feels he has to go to UCONN he could branch. But who knows how it will all turn out.

 

[Adios]

Yes, that is what is happening. But I'm surprised at the numbers still. It is hard to believe they only have one of every 5 admitted coming to UConn. Puts them in a very dangerous place.

53% is a good admittance rate. In a state of Conn's size, with only one state university, 50% is pretty good.

If anything, we're finding that there are a lot of talented kids (good grades, great SATs) who aim lower and end up at schools not as good as UConn. I've seen internal studies like this at my school. Far from what the media is telling, the American high school education system is producing a lot of talented students right now. I'm not sure if that's what the future holds with the radical revisions in primary and secondary education, but this is what the numbers show. SAT averages are down, but more kids than ever are also taking the test. In terms of sheer numbers, more bright students than ever before are produced. I'm talking about this because the slots at schools like UConn haven't risen to meet the demand. Instead, more kids than ever before are being crowded out.

Probably because they're not watching TV as much, which would mean they probably read stuff online. Reading goes a very long way.

I am kind of surprised the admittance rate is 53%. I've heard stories of kids with high GPAs from private high schooling being rejected.

 

[kibblesnbits]

Probably because they're not watching TV as much, which would mean they probably read stuff online. Reading goes a very long way.

I am kind of surprised the admittance rate is 53%. I've heard stories of kids with high GPAs from private high schooling being rejected.

Looking back, the admissions rate has varied quite a bit in recent years and has actually increased as UConn added capacity. For 2012-2013 the rate was only 45% as 600 fewer students were enrolled than than 2015-2016. My guess is that it will go back down toward that number as budget crunches constrain capacity combined with greater yields as more students look for more cost effective education options.

 

[upstater]

Looking back, the admissions rate has varied quite a bit in recent years and has actually increased as UConn added capacity. For 2012-2013 the rate was only 45% as 600 fewer students were enrolled than than 2015-2016. My guess is that it will go back down toward that number as budget crunches constrain capacity combined with greater yields as more students look for more cost effective education options.

I see the opposite happening. As the market constricts, UConn and schools like it will be expanding rapidly. I can't even understand why it hasn't happened yet. It should have, to meet demand. Someone posted a graphic about private colleges here the other day showing that children from families of the very top earners largely comprise the students that attend many private colleges. When the demographic numbers go down in 5 years (which is what we're seeing, fewer kids) a lot of those schools will be hurting.

But I can tell you the big state schools like UConn are already there to pick up the pieces. They envision growing tremendously, and they are preparing for it. In fact, the northeast, unlike everywhere else in the country except Arizona and New Mexico, is the only part of the country with a healthy young-to-old ratio that will allow the state schools to survive the coming drop in numbers. Maybe not all the northeast, but I know this is true of New York and I assume Connecticut. When New York loses population, it is about older people leaving for elsewhere, but when it comes to children, New York has a steady stream.

 

[Dizzy21]

I see the opposite happening. As the market constricts, UConn and schools like it will be expanding rapidly. I can't even understand why it hasn't happened yet. It should have, to meet demand. Someone posted a graphic about private colleges here the other day showing that children from families of the very top earners largely comprise the students that attend many private colleges. When the demographic numbers go down in 5 years (which is what we're seeing, fewer kids) a lot of those schools will be hurting.

But I can tell you the big state schools like UConn are already there to pick up the pieces. They envision growing tremendously, and they are preparing for it. In fact, the northeast, unlike everywhere else in the country except Arizona and New Mexico, is the only part of the country with a healthy young-to-old ratio that will allow the state schools to survive the coming drop in numbers. Maybe not all the northeast, but I know this is true of New York and I assume Connecticut. When New York loses population, it is about older people leaving for elsewhere, but when it comes to children, New York has a steady stream.

It is cheaper for a poor/middle class person to go to a place like Harvard than UCONN. They have such big endowments that they give free need based scholarships because all they want are the best and have enough money, over 30 Billion endowment, to just basically give admission away. The average price that the poor/middle class person pays at Harvard is $12,000 per year to attend according to them and that is a large majority of the students included in that population. Only extremely wealthy people actually pay those high rates that you see. If you are smart and poor/middle class, those elite privates are far cheaper than UConn.

 

[upstater]

It is cheaper for a poor/middle class person to go to a place like Harvard than UCONN. They have such big endowments that they give free need based scholarships because all they want are the best and have enough money, over 30 Billion endowment, to just basically give admission away. The average price that the poor/middle class person pays at Harvard is $12,000 per year to attend according to them and that is a large majority of the students included in that population. Only extremely wealthy people actually pay those high rates that you see. If you are smart and poor/middle class, those elite privates are far cheaper than UConn.

Have a look at their demographics. Very few poor to middle class students. A great many rich kids, a lot of legacies. The story about Trump's son-in-law is not unusual.

UConn and the state schools are going to expand massively.

 

[J187Money]

It is cheaper for a poor/middle class person to go to a place like Harvard than UCONN. They have such big endowments that they give free need based scholarships because all they want are the best and have enough money, over 30 Billion endowment, to just basically give admission away. The average price that the poor/middle class person pays at Harvard is $12,000 per year to attend according to them and that is a large majority of the students included in that population. Only extremely wealthy people actually pay those high rates that you see. If you are smart and poor/middle class, those elite privates are far cheaper than UConn.

Agreed - the net cost of attendance is what you need to look at. For me, UCONN is much cheaper than a private because I will likely have to pay full boat unless my son gets any scholarships.

 

[J187Money]

Have a look at their demographics. Very few poor to middle class students. A great many rich kids, a lot of legacies. The story about Trump's son-in-law is not unusual.

UConn and the state schools are going to expand massively.

There was good data in the NY Times a couple of weeks ago, showing that most of the big private schools are mostly 1%ers.

UCONN - to its credit, is only 2.1% 1%ers and 23.1% coming from the bottom 60% economically.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...he-top-1-percent-than-the-bottom-60.html?_r=0

 

[Dizzy21]

Have a look at their demographics. Very few poor to middle class students. A great many rich kids, a lot of legacies. The story about Trump's son-in-law is not unusual.

UConn and the state schools are going to expand massively.

According to Harvard's own stats, so take it for what its worth, 60% of students pay $12,000 a year. So although I do understand that probably means that 40% are wealthy, which I am guessing is much more than the normal public, but I would not call 60% very few students. They actually considered going tuition free so they could just accept the smart kids and not worry about anything a few years back. At the rate their endowment grows and the size of it, they can easily pay for all the expenses with that money.

 

[Dizzy21]

Agreed - the net cost of attendance is what you need to look at. For me, UCONN is much cheaper than a private because I will likely have to pay full boat unless my son gets any scholarships.

Yeah, net cost is key. Also, as not too many people are that fiscally responsible, a lot of people tend to think that getting a cheap loan for expensive college actually makes it affordable. They do find out that when they get out of college it sucks, but I do think the ease of which government backed loans are given out for college plays into people not really caring how much it costs, at least of lot of people, especially those who never took college loans out before...