Orangutan said:
I haven't been following this super closely, but I have a thought I'd like feedback on. Is it possible that ball PSI is explainable by science but also possibly a result of tampering? If it's in a gray area, then the circumstantial evidence would seem pretty relevant and in that context the texts from the equipment guys and the fact that Brady destroyed a phone look pretty bad.
Anyhow, it's (mostly) all moot now as the impending court case will be all about the CBA and labor law.
Yes, the pressure gauges used are likely not all that accurate they could be plus minus a half pound, one pound or more. The condition/calibration of said gauges is also unknown. My company has all kinds of equipment that must be calibrated and certified on a regular basis. Some before each use.
Now assuming the gauges are accurate enough and in good shape, it is the NFL. The other flaw before you even get to the science of pressure and temperature, is that there will be variance between gauges. As the report states the officials who took the pressure at halftime could be say with certainty which gauge they used before the game. So, IMO, there is absolutely no real data to make a decision other that the Pats née Brady liked to use lowly inflated footballs.
Now the science. There are two key parts of a FB in this case. The actual bladder and the stem nozzle. All game FB are used/broken in by the offensive team presumably according to preferences of the QB. Being worn, the seals inside the ball can leak so that might explain why one teams FBs differ from another. The relationship between pressure and temperature is a symbiotic one. As temperatures drop the product of the volume of the container and the pressure inside also drop. Since a FB is essentially a constant volume, then it's the pressure that drops.
That said the pressure isn't dropping by 2 psi, but it could very well make a borderline legal ball, illegal or a slightly illegal ball, more obviously illegal.
Wrap that all up are there are plenty of explanations as to why the balls were under inflated.
What is no in doubt is that Brady likes minimally or slightly under inflated footballs. That the teams have always had the ability to tailor their footballs. That only one or two of the Patriots balls were significantly under inflated and that the NFL never made a big deal about it previously.
So, Brady will win if the judge agrees that the NFL was arbitrary in its suspension. The NFL will win if they followed their past procedures in accordance with the collective bargaining agreement.
My guess is they didn't and Brady will win on appeal if it goes that far.
The phone is a red herring. It's his phone and he had no obligation to turn it over to the NFL. Brady had tens of millions of dollars and I'm sure uses his phone for lots of confidential business communications both NFL related and not. No way in heck should he turn it over, and any sane person would destroy it the minute he got a new one.