OT Barkley trashing Daryl Morey on Analytics

[johnhuskies95]

Nobody makes the variance argument about the tournament louder than I do. I'm fairly sure he wasn't the only player on those UConn teams that won regular season titles.

I wouldn't expect the removal of a top 50 player to lead to consistent immediate improvment of team results - but I guess that's possible.

You're kind of moving the goalposts. At first it was that his teams underachieved and now you're saying that he shouldn't get all the credit for the success of those teams.

Rudy is like a poor man's Tracy McGrady. His teams don't win as much as they should, but that doesn't mean he's not a good player.

 

[Chief00]

Everyone on the 2006 team wanted to get drafted, Rudy did not get enough shots. Having said that, at the NBA level he is not the guy on an elite team that will make them win but he would be great as part of a Big 3 in the right situation.

 

[whaler11]

You're kind of moving the goalposts. At first it was that his teams underachieved and now you're saying that he shouldn't get all the credit for the success of those teams.

Rudy is like a poor man's Tracy McGrady. His teams don't win as much as they should, but that doesn't mean he's not a good player.

Fair point - can't blame him for where the team 'underachieved' and not give him a fair amount of credit for the team's regular seasons.

Your analogy is probably accurate. I imagine advanced metrics hated McGrady too.

 

[johnhuskies95]

Also, to the point you were making earlier whaler, not finishing high enough in the lottery is what's hurt Morey the most. For years they were a fringe playoff team, which is no-mans land in the NBA. Lucking into a superstar is what a lot of teams try to do, and it's agreed upon that it's a good strategy, maybe even optimal.

I think Morey's an above average GM, but he's had 8 years now in a big market with a team that has a decent history and they haven't done a whole lot, although granted they've been in a really tough conference.

 

[champs99and04]

@johnhuskies95 I think you are sort of inadvertently making a case for Morey. He didn't luck into a star in the draft, he didn't throw the bank at a free agent, and he didn't stumble into a diamond in the rough. He managed his assets properly and eventually traded for a superstar in James Harden. It seems like a no-brainer now, but at the time sentiment was more divided on Harden - nobody knew if he could be 'the guy' on a great team. Turns out, analytics helped the Rockets make that determination - Harden was among the best in the league at operating out of the pick-and-roll, and the data backed that up.

Incidentally, I think we often fall into these arguments without ever defining "analytics". Barkley and Morey probably agree on more things than they'd expect, but for some, analytics is such an abstruse concept that it's easier to dismiss it.

 

[johnhuskies95]

@johnhuskies95 I think you are sort of inadvertently making a case for Morey. He didn't luck into a star in the draft, he didn't throw the bank at a free agent, and he didn't stumble into a diamond in the rough. He managed his assets properly and eventually traded for a superstar in James Harden. It seems like a no-brainer now, but at the time sentiment was more divided on Harden - nobody knew if he could be 'the guy' on a great team. Turns out, analytics helped the Rockets make that determination - Harden was among the best in the league at operating out of the pick-and-roll, and the data backed that up.

Incidentally, I think we often fall into these arguments without ever defining "analytics". Barkley and Morey probably agree on more things than they'd expect, but for some, analytics is such an abstruse concept that it's easier to dismiss it.

He didn't luck into a star because he didn't try to. That's the point. Smart guys like Rich Cho and Rob Hennigan know that the best way to get good is to be really bad for a little bit. Now it remains to be seen whether or not it will work out, but I think they'll be in a better position than they would've been if they didn't go that route. Maybe Morey figured that being in Houston they'd have a better shot at top tier free agents than those guys, I don't know. If he was being honest I think he'd admit he overestimated the Rockets' draw with free agency. Howard is a nice get I guess even if he's 3-4 years past his peak.

As always, hindsight is 20/20, but sometime around 2009, when Yao started to look like he was on his last legs, they should've started over. Instead they spent three years scratching and clawing to finish 9th in the conference every year.

It's a stock response, but the only reason the Thunder got to the finals is because they piled up 3 top 5 picks in a row, which gave them Durant, Westbrook, and Harden. Obviously getting those guys required a lot of luck, but they put themselves in a position to get lucky.

If Kevin McHale is your head coach(who I think is ok btw, he just isn't Carlisle or Poppovich) you better have some damn good players to take you deep in the playoffs in the West. And I think Morey's figured out over the past few years via the free agent market that guys aren't really lining up to play for Houston(something he should have seen coming), so the draft is your best bet.

Like I said before I think that Morey is certainly fine as a GM. He's smart and talented enough to compile a roster that can win 55 games a year and go to the conference semi finals, which is impressive in the East. I just think he's made some mistakes in trying to get the team to go further than that.