OT – BCS Scenarios

[Jerry1714]

I thought I saw Bama at -3.5 to FSU on the lookaheads last week.

http://www.bettingtalk.com/want-win-national-championship-cover-point-spread/

This is the last I saw. It had it at 5

What I have seen is FSU will be a little under 10 point fav versus oh st

 

[whaler11]

http://www.bettingtalk.com/want-win-national-championship-cover-point-spread/

This is the last I saw. It had it at 5

What I have seen is FSU will be a little under 10 point fav versus oh st

That's the thread I saw - just an old man w bad memory.

 

[Nostical]

OSU will not be playing for the NC. Ain't gonna happen.

 

[SubbaBub]

The eastern division of the SEC is far weaker than the western division is this year so your argument is not valid.[

No it isn't FAR weaker. It's "weaker" only because Alabama is in the west. Both divisions have 2-3 good teams, 1 decent team and 3 absolute dregs. The season is over, the records are in, the teams are what the records say they are.

The SEC is best among equals is different than saying the SEC is so much better than every other league it deserves special consideration. The way the SEC schedule is setup a top team gets 4 automatic OOC wins, 4 automatic league wins a couple trap games and usually 1 or 2 tough games.

Looking back, Auburn had 8 gimmies (games against non-BCS teams or teams .500 or worse in BCS leagues), Bama had 10, Mizzou had 8, and SCar had 8. Other than games against each other, only UGa and LSU qualify as quality wins. As is turned out Auburn and Mizzou had the toughest schedule. The winner will have earned the top 1-loss spot if it comes to that.

FWIW, FSU had 10 gimmes (Clem and Miami the exceptions) and OSU had 10 (Wisc and Iowa). Others (MSU - 9 (Neb, Wisc, ND), Ok St and Baylor had 7 (Tech, Texas, OU, K-state, and each other)

 

[Jerry1714]

No it isn't FAR weaker. It's "weaker" only because Alabama is in the west. Both divisions have 2-3 good teams, 1 decent team and 3 absolute dregs. The season is over, the records are in, the teams are what the records say they are.

The SEC is best among equals is different than saying the SEC is so much better than every other league it deserves special consideration. The way the SEC schedule is setup a top team gets 4 automatic OOC wins, 4 automatic league wins a couple trap games and usually 1 or 2 tough games.

Looking back, Auburn had 8 gimmies (games against non-BCS teams or teams .500 or worse in BCS leagues), Bama had 10, Mizzou had 8, and SCar had 8. Other than games against each other, only UGa and LSU qualify as quality wins. As is turned out Auburn and Mizzou had the toughest schedule. The winner will have earned the top 1-loss spot if it comes to that.

FWIW, FSU had 10 gimmes (Clem and Miami the exceptions) and OSU had 10 (Wisc and Iowa). Others (MSU - 9 (Neb, Wisc, ND), Ok St and Baylor had 7 (Tech, Texas, OU, K-state, and each other)

What's ur definition of a gimme? FSU was a 3 Td fav over Miami, that's a gimme to me.

Bama would be a 4 Td fav over Iowa, so while it may not be a gimme to ohio state it would be to others.

This whole argument doesn't make much sense

 

[whaler11]

No it isn't FAR weaker. It's "weaker" only because Alabama is in the west. Both divisions have 2-3 good teams, 1 decent team and 3 absolute dregs. The season is over, the records are in, the teams are what the records say they are.

The SEC is best among equals is different than saying the SEC is so much better than every other league it deserves special consideration. The way the SEC schedule is setup a top team gets 4 automatic OOC wins, 4 automatic league wins a couple trap games and usually 1 or 2 tough games.

Looking back, Auburn had 8 gimmies (games against non-BCS teams or teams .500 or worse in BCS leagues), Bama had 10, Mizzou had 8, and SCar had 8. Other than games against each other, only UGa and LSU qualify as quality wins. As is turned out Auburn and Mizzou had the toughest schedule. The winner will have earned the top 1-loss spot if it comes to that.

FWIW, FSU had 10 gimmes (Clem and Miami the exceptions) and OSU had 10 (Wisc and Iowa). Others (MSU - 9 (Neb, Wisc, ND), Ok St and Baylor had 7 (Tech, Texas, OU, K-state, and each other)

You are one of the most informed sports posters here but I'm confused by what you are getting at, so I'm trying to understand.

Do you think Ohio State can hang with Florida State? If your point is they just keep winning so they deserve in over a one loss SEC team I think that's a done deal as long as they beat Michigan State.

If they played a neutral site round robin with Alabama, FSU, Ohio State, Missouri and Auburn how would you expect it to go?

I'd propose:
Bama
Florida State
Missouri
Auburn
Ohio State

 

[hthusky74]

No it isn't FAR weaker. It's "weaker" only because Alabama is in the west. Both divisions have 2-3 good teams, 1 decent team and 3 absolute dregs. The season is over, the records are in, the teams are what the records say they are.

The SEC is best among equals is different than saying the SEC is so much better than every other league it deserves special consideration. The way the SEC schedule is setup a top team gets 4 automatic OOC wins, 4 automatic league wins a couple trap games and usually 1 or 2 tough games.

Looking back, Auburn had 8 gimmies (games against non-BCS teams or teams .500 or worse in BCS leagues), Bama had 10, Mizzou had 8, and SCar had 8. Other than games against each other, only UGa and LSU qualify as quality wins. As is turned out Auburn and Mizzou had the toughest schedule. The winner will have earned the top 1-loss spot if it comes to that.

FWIW, FSU had 10 gimmes (Clem and Miami the exceptions) and OSU had 10 (Wisc and Iowa). Others (MSU - 9 (Neb, Wisc, ND), Ok St and Baylor had 7 (Tech, Texas, OU, K-state, and each other)

If Auburn beats Mizzou and FSU wins, that is your title game. If Missouri beats Auburn look for OSU to play FSU. If Auburn wins and FSU loses or doesn't win convincingly, don't be surprised to see an Auburn Bama rematch.

 

[tzznandrew]

If Auburn beats Mizzou and FSU wins, that is your title game. If Missouri beats Auburn look for OSU to play FSU. If Auburn wins and FSU loses or doesn't win convincingly, don't be surprised to see an Auburn Bama rematch.

If there are two undefeated teams, and two one loss SEC teams play for the BCS title, there will be an absolute mutiny. I can see, perhaps, Auburn passing Ohio State, but no one is passing an undefeated Florida State.

Also, this would infuriate me, but is a distinct possibility. Missouri wins the SEC title, Ohio State loses to Michigan State, and Alabama plays Florida State for the BCS title.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Gladly (insert sarcasm), we will not have to worry about Urban Myer developing morals now that he is the coach at B1G Ohio St instead of Florida, neither Ohio St. players in involved in the brawl against Michigan will face any disciple from the team for their roles because it was ‘handled’ internally. So both, middle fingers and all, will get to play in the B1G Championship and a potential BCS title match even if in the long run, some disciple may have done them some good. That ‘internal’ disciple thing has worked for Myer in the past, just ask Hernandez.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/10064394/urban-meyer-ban-ohio-state-buckeyes-players-marcus-hall-dontre-wilson-fight

 

[whaler11]

Maybe I'm wrong but if Ohio State wins I really don't see them being left out of title game.

 

[Jimdish255]

If auburn beats mizzu they will be #1 in the computers per Brad Edwards and that will probably be enough to jump Ohio state.

We already saw a bad Midwestern team blown out in the NC last year, I pray we can avoid it this year and auburn can jump OSU

Auburn Mizzou should be a great game if Auburn can forget what just happened.

Also, this would infuriate me, but is a distinct possibility. Missouri wins the SEC title, Ohio State loses to Michigan State, and Alabama plays Florida State for the BCS title.

Distinct possibility that would be really controversial on Mizzou end.

 

[hthusky74]

Maybe I'm wrong but if Ohio State wins I really don't see them being left out of title game.

If FSU wins and Auburn wins, OSU is sol.

 

[whaler11]

If FSU wins and Auburn wins, OSU is sol.

If you are willing to make an even money wager on that proposition let me know. If Ohio State wins they are playing Florida State.

 

[sportsart]

Maybe I'm wrong but if Ohio State wins I really don't see them being left out of title game.

Genius. You are so smart.

 

[whaler11]

Genius. You are so smart.

Wow you went to war there. Notice how I admitted I might be wrong!

Did you read the part where people posted they wouldn't. Are you going to reply to them?

 

[Chin Diesel]

If FSU wins and Auburn wins, OSU is sol.

No. Even if Auburn wins, they won't jump OSU. OSU is ahead of Auburn in all the human polls and the computers and is playing the BCS #10. Auburn playing the BCS #5 isn't enough to jump OSU.

I don't care either way, but it's a fact. OSU and FSU control their fates right now. Win and they play for the championship.

 

[hthusky74]

If you are willing to make an even money wager on that proposition let me know. If Ohio State wins they are playing Florida State.

You're on. Three scoops of ice cream at the UConn Dairy Bar. The bet is that if FSU, Auburn and OSU win, then FSU and Auburn get the nod.

 

[whaler11]

You're on. Three scoops of ice cream at the UConn Dairy Bar.

I would have preferred three fingers of scotch but deal. Missouri is going to beat Auburn anyway.

 

[hthusky74]

I would have preferred three fingers of scotch but deal. Missouri is going to beat Auburn anyway.

I figured MSU was beating OSU.

 

[Jerry1714]

Aside from all the various scenarios that have been discussed above, what teams mentioned above would be favored over Alabama by the bookies in a national title game? Maybe FSU by a point or two, and I stress maybe. Any of the rest and I am sure Alabama is the favorite. They might make it a pick-em with Auburn.

@RJinVegas13h
Alabama would still be favored over any team in the country (yes, including Florida St) - via bookmaker @JayKornegay

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Curveball, if the Red Sea does part and the state of Florida charges Jameis Winston with sexual assault between Florida St winning the ACC championship and the BCS title game instead of sometime in February, does the winner of the Auburn/Missouri game vault undefeated Florida St and gets into the BCS title game against Ohio St (assuming Ohio St beats arguably the best defense in college football - Michigan St)?