Oregon vs Notre Dame - 3/26/18

[Shades]

Well, I didn't get there to give it the like it deserved when you posted this. But gotta say this is the spot on post of this thread.

Can you name the adjustments that caused ND to be a +22 on the boards? That was the difference to me.

 

[Blue Huskie]

Lucky UConn...get to play a young USC team with ZERO three point shooters in the elite 8 and a Notre Dame team with like 4 players out with torn ACL's in the national semi's....cake walk to the championship game. MSU on the other hand has to play UCLA with their 5 McDonald's all americans on their roster in the elite 8 and Louisville in the national semi's. Oh well, will make it that much sweeter when we win it all for our first time this season.

"Lucky"? - The overall Number 1 seed earned the easier bracket. And by the way, is that the same "toothless" SC team that beat MSU in the Tourney Final by 11 recently?

 

[Dillon77]

Can you name the adjustments that caused ND to be a +22 on the boards? That was the difference to me.

Gosh, it looked pretty basic to me. Since the Irish were playing man-to-man defense largely, they were boxing out and going for the ball after the shot went up. All of Mabrey's 7 rebounds were defensive, the second most on the team (and she was chasing Oregon's 3-pt. specialists).
But the individual who took this most to heart was wing Jackie Young, who had 9 defensive boards and 4 offensive for a total of 13. And she was on Ionescu most of the 2nd half, to boot.

Jessica Shepard had 9 rebounds, although it seemed like more, and six of those were offensive. I just think she beat Hebard to and on the boards, something Hebard -- to her credit -- alluded to in the post-game press conference. Westbeld was also solid on the defensive boards (7), but she's always good at good old-fashioned boxing out.

 

[Dillon77]

Gosh, it looked pretty basic to me. Since the Irish were playing man-to-man defense largely, they were boxing out and going for the ball after the shot went up. All of Mabrey's 7 rebounds were defensive, the second most on the team (and she was chasing Oregon's 3-pt. specialists).
But the individual who took this most to heart was wing Jackie Young, who had 9 defensive boards and 4 offensive for a total of 13. And she was on Ionescu most of the 2nd half, to boot.

Jessica Shepard had 9 rebounds, although it seemed like more, and six of those were offensive. I just think she beat Hebard to and on the boards, something Hebard -- to her credit -- alluded to in the post-game press conference. Westbeld was also solid on the defensive boards (7), but she's always good at good old-fashioned boxing out.

On defense, McGraw had her forwards (Shepard, Westbeld and Koko Nelson) double team Oregon's guards off the screens and she thought that helped. I thought Mabrey, Young and Arike just did a better job of getting over them; Mabrey, in particular, was hedging and staying in peoples' faces.

But, I agree with you, I think it was the rebounding that really helped. And when ND rebounds, it allows them to run hard in transition and get easier buckets.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Maybe it was on another message board, someone mentioned Oregon played a lot of zone defense, which can lead to rebounding issues. Notre Dame grabbed a ton of O boards in the 2nd half. I saw several occasions where Shepard or Westbeld overpowered one of the Oregon guards who had rotated down into the key for an O board. Seems like Oregon was stuck w/ some schemes that weren't working but didn't make adjustments.

 

[wallman]

Here is a question - what if you switched Graves with Rueck? Anyone think that there would be a different outcome last night?

 

[nwhoopfan]

Here is a question - what if you switched Graves with Rueck? Anyone think that there would be a different outcome last night?

Interesting question. Maybe, maybe not. I think stubbornness is an affliction most coaches suffer from. Rueck is the same coach that went man-to-man defense almost the entire game against UConn in the 2016 Final 4 w/ Hamblin "trying" to guard Tuck out at the 3 point line. She was completely incapable of doing anything in that defensive assignment, Tuck scored at will, but Rueck didn't make adjustments. Sometimes even really good coaches just get stuck. Anybody other than Rueck that was watching the game could see he either needed to switch to zone or get Hamblin out of the game and have someone quicker try to guard Tuck. If he had simply switched Hamblin to guarding Stewie she would've done the same thing Tuck was doing. OSU had very little chance of winning that game but Rueck's approach on D gave them no chance.

 

[wallman]

Good point. My only difference would be that he may have had them play better team ball in the second half.

 

[nwhoopfan]

FWIW Oregon St. led Notre Dame almost the whole game at the beginning of the year. Game was in Corvallis. OSU was up by double digits at some point. ND rallied in the closing minutes and OSU coughed up the lead. This was before Vaughn and Thompson were injured for ND. Gulich is bigger and more physical than Hebard, she matched up better w/ Shepard. McGwire has the size but she's a fairly finesse player.

But of course that's not the same as giving Rueck the Ducks roster and seeing what he would do with them.

 

[LoTrader]

In the end, the PAC12 teams (UCLA, OSU, UO) were outplayed defensively. I was very impressed with Louisville's, MSU's, and Notre Dame's defense. The PAC12 had a great tournament, but, in order to take the next step, they are going to have to be junkyard dogs on defense, and, all five players have to be threats on offense. And, as pointed out, coaches need to step up too, and be able to make in game adjustments on the fly when necessary. I really believe the 4 teams that are in the FINAL 4 are the right 4 teams. Each one of them were awesome during the regular season, their respective tournaments, and, showed up when it counted in this years NCAA Tournament. FINAL 4 will be very fun to watch.

 

[dogged1]

Can you name the adjustments that caused ND to be a +22 on the boards? That was the difference to me.

I’m not a basketball guru like Coco, Bags, CharlieBB, vowelguy, oldedude or even you. Just a Uconn fan who enjoys the game. And I’m certainly no statistician. But I did watch the game, especially in the second half, when ND made its gritty, hard fought comeback. It would seem to me that some of that had to be in the way of adjustments by the coaching staff, and some of it was due to just mental toughness.

So I went back to the box score and confirmed that you were right. ND had a +22 edge in overall rebounding. Certainly more than enough to account for the win. Digging a little deeper, at the end of the half Oregon had 4 offensive rebound and 12 defensive rebounds, total of 16. ND had 7 offensive RB and 10 defensive RB, total of 17. Oregon shot slightly more effectively hence a small lead in the score

That all changed in the second half; Oregon ORB = 2, DRB = 11, total = 13. ND ORB = 12, DRB = 22, Total = 34.

Now you can say it was just ND out willing Oregon or just maybe Muffet got in Shepard’s ear and reminded her to watch her positioning and to box out. Can’t prove it but a dramatic change in the rebounding stats in the second half, no?

 

[j66kicker]

Here is a question - what if you switched Graves with Rueck? Anyone think that there would be a different outcome last night?

No, but if Graves & McGraw switched I think there would have been a different outcome.

 

[Carnac]

The difference in the game. Muffet made the halftime adjustments, and Oregon had no response. Hebard and Ioenscu were lights out in the first half.

Another reason why MM should get COY.

 

[donalddoowop]

Doowop-here's your quote
"Ionescu is going to have to play better against the elite teams outside of the Pac 12 before she can be truly rated a POY type player"

The only way anyone can interpret that is you dismissing the PAC12 as not being so great if Sabrina is to be rated a POY player.

So let's answer your question- How many "elite teams" are in WCBB? Maybe 5. Probably only 4. Oregon is the top team over there, after them is OSU and Stanford, then UCLA.
SEC has one-MSU,
ACC has ND and Louisville.
AAC has UConn. So let's name a superstar who has performed well against those teams. I mean get a bit real on your assessment. She is a sophomore and she definitely struggled at times last night especially after Mabry started her typical chippyness (I am so looking forward to Kia and KLS against her). But she has performed well against OOC teams.

For perspective, Wilson has had what 2 of the 5 games as good against UConn? Vivians shot 35% from the field against SC in the SEC Title game won by SC. Asia Durr was shut down by UConn for 3 quarters when they played. Samuelson has had moments of struggles as well in big games.

My take is for you to say that about Ionescu after 1 game to question her is a bit harsh. That's all.

I agree with most of what you say. I believe Ionescu is the best point guard in the country and I did not realize that she scored over 20 points against ND. There really are not many elite teams in D1 WCBB. I'll leave it at that.

 

[Carnac]

I'm concerned Shepherd is going to be very aggressive with Z.

She can't get too aggressive. She can't afford to get in early foul trouble, no bench depth. It's a problem they've had most of the year, so they know how to gauge their play. If Shepard is forced to sit for any appreciable amount of time, that could be devastating for ND. They could fall so far behind they would be unable to recover. She must remain in the game for them to have any chance to win. She can't be overly aggressive and remain in the game. I expect most of ND's starters to play 34-38 minutes Friday.

 

[Carnac]

Notre Dame suffered those losses but still had the player personnel to make it work. They still have a physical 6-4 Shepard inside to make up for Turner, and Mabrey has been outstanding as PG after a rocky start. Different roster makeup than Mississippi State, so you can't equate losing Turner to losing McCowan. ND had Shepard cleared, while if Mississippi State lost McCowan, they'd have no one close to Shepard's caliber to replace her.

Moreover, if Muffet didn't have any top 20 recruits on her roster, would she have guided her team to a 36-1 record? It works both ways.

Schaefer's team has 0 top 20 recruits on the roster and they're 36-1 and dominated a good SEC conference this year. Notre Dame is short on players and Muffet has done a heck of a job, perhaps her best coaching effort yet, but Shepard/Young/Ogunbowale were all top 10 players coming out of HS, Westbeld and Mabrey in the 15-30 range IIRC. I wouldn't be upset if Muffet wins most of the COY awards, but I think hands down the award should go to Schaefer.

I don't expect everyone to agree with my comments. I took note of your comments, however my opinion has not changed. I was aware of the dynamics of your argument before hand. You can take Muffet's name out of the argument. Any coach that does what she did deserves the award. We'll agree to disagree, and let the selection committee decide. Our respective opinions will not be considered by those charged with voting for that award.

 

[Carnac]

Notre Dame suffered those losses but still had the player personnel to make it work. They still have a physical 6-4 Shepard inside to make up for Turner, and Mabrey has been outstanding as PG after a rocky start. Different roster makeup than Mississippi State, so you can't equate losing Turner to losing McCowan. ND had Shepard cleared, while if Mississippi State lost McCowan, they'd have no one close to Shepard's caliber to replace her.

Moreover, if Muffet didn't have any top 20 recruits on her roster, would she have guided her team to a 36-1 record? It works both ways.

Schaefer's team has 0 top 20 recruits on the roster and they're 36-1 and dominated a good SEC conference this year. Notre Dame is short on players and Muffet has done a heck of a job, perhaps her best coaching effort yet, but Shepard/Young/Ogunbowale were all top 10 players coming out of HS, Westbeld and Mabrey in the 15-30 range IIRC. I wouldn't be upset if Muffet wins most of the COY awards, but I think hands down the award should go to Schaefer.

I took everything you mentioned into consideration when forming my opinion. I'm aware of everything you've incorporated in your response/argument. I dismissed the "IF" in your argument, that's speculation. I remind you, I'm NOT a fan of Muffet or ND. Remove her name and insert any other coach's name if you wish. I'm rewarding the achievements, not the coach.

I also took into account her ability to make in-game and halftime adjustments. We both received "likes" for our comments thus we are not alone in our thinking. You disagree with my post, I'm OK with that. Anyone that posts a comment must understand that there will always be someone that disagrees with it. I also didn't like Shepard being awarded her waiver, but that has noting to do with this.

The committee that awards the COY doesn't give a rat's a** about our opinions, and won't use then in making their decision. So, we'll agree to disagree. I'm OK with whoever they give it to, even Geno. I still think she deserves it more than any other D1 coach THIS year. Let's let them decide who gets it, and live with that decision. I'm not going to lose any sleep over who gets it or not. COY is not that big a deal to me. I'm much more interested in UConn winning the NC.

 

[Dillon77]

She can't get too aggressive. She can't afford to get in early foul trouble, no bench depth. It's a problem they've had most of the year, so they know how to gauge their play. If Shepard is forced to sit for any appreciable amount of time, that could be devastating for ND. They could fall so far behind they would be unable to recover. She must remain in the game for them to have any chance to win. She can't be overly aggressive and remain in the game. I expect most of ND's starters to play 34-38 minutes Friday.

Per the numbers estimate, take a look at what ND did against Oregon: the three guards (Mabrey, Ogunbowale and Young) played the entire game. Inside, Nelson spelled Shepard and Westbeld for 11 minutes. She might've gone a bit longer but picked up 2 fouls in the first half, when she first came in.

Expect pretty much this model against UConn. Maybe a guest spot by Dani Patterson at the end of quarters to limit foul trouble, but that's about it.

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools...o_pdf/2017-18/box_score/stats_20180327aaa.pdf

 

[bballnut90]

I took everything you mentioned into consideration when forming my opinion. I'm aware of everything you've incorporated in your response/argument. I dismissed the "IF" in your argument, that's speculation. I remind you, I'm NOT a fan of Muffet or ND. Remove her name and insert any other coach's name if you wish. I'm rewarding the achievements, not the coach.

I also took into account her ability to make in-game and halftime adjustments. We both received "likes" for our comments thus we are not alone in our thinking. You disagree with my post, I'm OK with that. Anyone that posts a comment must understand that there will always be someone that disagrees with it. I also didn't like Shepard being awarded her waiver, but that has noting to do with this.

The committee that awards the COY doesn't give a rat's a** about our opinions, and won't use then in making their decision. So, we'll agree to disagree. I'm OK with whoever they give it to, even Geno. I still think she deserves it more than any other D1 coach THIS year. Let's let them decide who gets it, and live with that decision. I'm not going to lose any sleep over who gets it or not. COY is not that big a deal to me. I'm much more interested in UConn winning the NC.

Totally understand the argument for Muffet....didn’t mean for the response to come off as attacking if it did.

I won’t be upset if she wins, as think this might be her best coaching job yet (even better than 2013 and 2014). I just think Schaefer should win. Honestly, any of the Final Four coaches are extremely deserving this year. All have greatly exceeded expectations and have been dominant teams. I’m not a UCONN fan by any means, but I agree that if Geno wins, it’ll be well deserved. Lots of great coaching efforts this year.

 

[wallman]

No, but if Graves & McGraw switched I think there would have been a different outcome.

You could be right as then Boley would have been available to Oregon and no Shepard for ND