Oregon (3) @ UCLA (7) - 2/14/20

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Who will win this game?


  • Total voters
    24
  • Poll closed .

jonson

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I realize a win is a win, and this one on the road and a very important one at that against a quality opponent, but it was also, for me, really frustrating. Double digits and I was never really worried about the outcome, but: big lead, go to sleep, and for much of the second half look like anything but a top 3 team. Sabally, especially, hasn't played this badly for quite a while. Ionescu was ok, Chavez had a good game, but other than that it was the Ruthy Hebard show. And thank goodness she was, in Geno speak, really really good. Hope this will be a bit of a wake-up call for Sunday.
 
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What is with Satou sometimes. A lot of skill there but there are sometimes I wonder if she is that into it of has the same commitment as some of the other players. Graves said on the post game radio talk that Satou had a horrible week of practice and she obviously did not have a good game either. He said if she want to play pro she has to bring it night in and night out and she is not there yet. I tend to agree.
 
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I realize a win is a win, and this one on the road and a very important one at that against a quality opponent, but it was also, for me, really frustrating. Double digits and I was never really worried about the outcome, but: big lead, go to sleep, and for much of the second half look like anything but a top 3 team. Sabally, especially, hasn't played this badly for quite a while. Ionescu was ok, Chavez had a good game, but other than that it was the Ruthy Hebard show. And thank goodness she was, in Geno speak, really really good. Hope this will be a bit of a wake-up call for Sunday.
I get what your saying. It was odd at times watching it. Satou was sleep walking at times and was hesitant to shoot or attack the basket at times. I guess where there is credit due is that they can stink up a half and it never felt they were threatened.
 
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This game has huge implications all around. An Oregon win helps solidify a #1 seed for the NCAAs and the PAC-12 regular season championship, and with it a #1 seed in the PAC-12 tournament. A UCLA win arguably puts UCLA in the running for an NCAA #1 seed and also puts them in the driver's seat for the PAC-12 championship, since they only meet the Ducks once and will have the tie-breaker. It cannot be stated enough how much UCLA lucked out scheduling wise this season - they got Stanford only once (away) and the Ducks and Beavs only once at home.
The tie breaker only applies to conference tournament seeding. If UCLA wins and they and Oregon finish with the same conference record they are considered co champions. It’s been that way for years.
 
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You can tell it’s a blowout when the announcers are mostly yammering about other stuff and not bothering to follow the action.
They also briefly talked about 'Usage Rate' and how Oregon's Big 3 all had high usage rates and accounted for ~ 75% of the team's usage which is misleading, as most would associate that as being equal to three quarters of overall team usage, which is it not.

Given there are 5 players on the floor an average 'Usage Rate' would be 20%.

Certainly an aggregate of ~ 75% for Top 3 players is impressive but not unique.

Per Her Hoops Data below are selected players 'Usage Rate' (shown as Player - Rank - Percentile - Usage Rate):

Misc Top Players
Chennedy Carter - 1st - 100% - 37.8%
Aari McDonald - 6th - 99.8% - 36.2%
Rhyne Howard - 7th - 99.8% - 36.0%
Beatrice Mompremier - 50th - 98.5% - 31.3%
Michaela Onyenwere - 72nd - 97.9% - 30.6%
Kathleen Doyle - 126th - 92.2% - 29.1%
Elissa Cunane - 156th - 95.3% - 28.5%
Chelsea Dungee - 162nd - 95.1% - 28.4%

Oregon
Satou Sabally - 256th - 92.3% - 27.2%
Sabrina Ionescu - 548th - 83.5% - 24.6%
Ruthy Hebard - 607th - 81.7% - 24.1%
Oregon Top 3 Combined Usage = 75.9%

Oregon St.
Taylor Jones - 313th - 90.6% - 26.5%
Destiny Slocum - 350th - 89.5% - 26.2%
Mikalya Pivec - 928th - 72.1% - 22.3%
Oregon St. Top 3 Combined Usage = 75.0%

UConn
Megan Walker - 267th - 92.0% - 27.0%
Olivia Nelson-Ododa - 875th - 73.7% - 22.5%
Christyn Williams - 1076th - 67.6% - 21.5%
UConn Top 3 Combined Usage = 71.0%

Now the combination of having a team where your three best players are your three most efficient and have three highest usage rate (as is the case with Oregon) is a strong receipt for success but obviously also dependent on the overall talent of those players.

Portland
Alex Fowler - 94th - 97.2% - 30.1%
Haylee Andrews - 220th - 93.4% - 27.8%
Kate Andersen - 485th - 85.4% - 25.0%
Portland Top 3 Combined Usage = 82.9%
 

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