I'm the farthest thing from an expert on the high school/AAU hoop scene. And as a result, recruiting in general. But this does seem to be one of Ollie's problems.
Was one of his problems. He fixed it in 2016 & 17...
I could be wrong, but he appears to go all in on guys, at the expense of a broader net. I'm thinking of players like Stone and Diallo. There's so much uncertainty in recruiting, especially in the current climate, it didn't seem wise from an outsider's perspective.
Going all-in on Stone made no sense for us, given the fact that we had a REALLY good chance at Govan until we made it clear he was No. 2. Govan isn't the second coming of Emeka or anything, but he was a guy that we could've landed, and a guy who could've helped a lot over the last 1.5 years.
Even Govan was a top 50 recruit, though. We recruited almost exclusively top 75 bigs in 2014 & 2015, and the only one we landed (Enoch) A) was raw, and B) fell into our laps. KO & staff did a bad job of identifying "program builders" -- guys who are ranked from 100-200 or so and will likely stick around for four years, improving each season. Those are the types of guys that Kansas, Michigan State (they lack them this year and are struggling), Villanova, Gonzaga and even UNC have thrived with.
We didn't identify those guys early in the process in 2014 & 15, and we're reaping what we sowed on the recruiting trail over those two years.
No problem with recruiting one and dones hard, but making next level guys absolute priorities is important.
And now I think Ollie's learned that lesson. He got Diarra, Polley & Carlton wicked early in the recruiting cycle, and he got & stayed with Vance even as he dropped from ~40 to ~80 in the rankings. He also jumped on Vital as soon as Vital decommitted from UNLV.
That's five sub-elite recruits who will be with us for a long while, in addition to a trio of truly elite guys (Alterique, Durham, MAL). While none of those sub-elite guys has an exceptionally high ceiling (Jackson might turn into Jared Dudley, and Carlton's best-case is maybe Daniel Ochefu), they raise our floor as a program.
Just like getting 3-star recruits Colson & Devin Watson in 2014, instead of fighting for 4-stars like Perkins, Jackson-Cartwright & Abu, would've raised our floor over the last three years. In retrospect the decision to swing for the fences on the 2014 class was the biggest factor, other than injuries, leading to our current situation.
Diallo is, I think, a separate case. Because of the depth & diversity of our 2016 & 17 classes we could afford to go all-in on him and miss, and still be largely ok going forward. I said before and I'll say it again here: The biggest reason we needed to land Diallo is because he's almost certainly a future pro, and we need to replenish our stock in the league. In terms of on-court impact, however, I'd rather have a proven postgrad shooter.
Ollie's gotten better as a recruiter over the last three years. The job now is to show he's gotten better as a talent developer as well. I've seen lots of individual improvements from the sophomores & freshmen to give me confidence it'll happen.