Of the 16 Host teams, who won't make to the Sweet 16?

[DefenseBB]

#1. Tennessee. No Horston and now they have Buffalo and Oregon staring them down.
#2. LSU. Morris is probably playing but after Jackson St, they have THE Ohio State University who is a tough matchup for Kim with their own quick guards.
#3. Indiana. Charlotte should be a win but waiting is Kentucky or Princeton, two of the hotter teams that IU will not match up well against.
#4. Iowa State. They have UT Arlington but next up is the winner of Georgia vs. DePaul/Dayton. If DePaul gets on a run by beating Dayton and Georgia, watching Morrow vs. Joens inside and the mad bombers of Held, Church and Morris against Donarski will be fun.
#5. Arizona. Is Cate Reese fully healthy? They will need her against NC as on paper, NC is clearly the better team but the Wildcats can play defense but without Reese, their offense is in trouble.
#6. Michigan. On paper this is a Elite 8 or even a final four team. Injuries and inconsistency have plagued them of late. Add in an under-rated BYU team or "on a roll" Villanova team with a Siegrist vs. Hillman matchup. Which team will be on the floor for KBA?

 

[southie]

I think Iowa State has tough matchups. If DePaul gets past Dayton in the play-in game on Wednesday, and then Georgia in the round of 64, how will Iowa State defend super strong freshman forward, Aneesah Morrow?

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If Georgia advances to the round of 32, can ISU handle Georgia's size in the paint and super athletic guards?

Conversely, those teams have to be able to defend ISU and not let the 3-point shots fly uncontested.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Kentucky is my #1 pick to flame out after getting a bunch of hype. They've been on a hot streak lately, but overall probably even calling them mediocre this year is being kind. This is mostly the same team that struggled until late to get by Idaho St. in the first round and then got drilled by Iowa in the second round last year. Indiana beat them by 20 this year, not sure why they would be such a bad match up for the Hoosiers? I just think the Wildcats are a team that is destined to return to the mean sooner than later.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

#1. Tennessee. No Horston and now they have Buffalo and Oregon staring them down.
#2. LSU. Morris is probably playing but after Jackson St, they have THE Ohio State University who is a tough matchup for Kim with their own quick guards.
#3. Indiana. Charlotte should be a win but waiting is Kentucky or Princeton, two of the hotter teams that IU will not match up well against.
#4. Iowa State. They have UT Arlington but next up is the winner of Georgia vs. DePaul/Dayton. If DePaul gets on a run by beating Dayton and Georgia, watching Morrow vs. Joens inside and the mad bombers of Held, Church and Morris against Donarski will be fun.
#5. Arizona. Is Cate Reese fully healthy? They will need her against NC as on paper, NC is clearly the better team but the Wildcats can play defense but without Reese, their offense is in trouble.
#6. Michigan. On paper this is a Elite 8 or even a final four team. Injuries and inconsistency have plagued them of late. Add in an under-rated BYU team or "on a roll" Villanova team with a Siegrist vs. Hillman matchup. Which team will be on the floor for KBA?

I assume you are not predicting all 6? Twice in the last 5 tourneys 5 teams have not made it, but one of those years was last year when there was no home-court advantage.

I agree that these teams collectively are the most likely, but I think only 3 - maybe 4 - go down.

 

[LETTERL]

It pains me to say this, but I think UNC will emerge from the Tucson pod. If Cate Reese returns, I'd take Arizona but without her, I don't believe the Wildcats can keep up with the Tar Heels.

 

[shiverz45]

Kentucky is my #1 pick to flame out after getting a bunch of hype. They've been on a hot streak lately, but overall probably even calling them mediocre this year is being kind. This is mostly the same team that struggled until late to get by Idaho St. in the first round and then got drilled by Iowa in the second round last year. Indiana beat them by 20 this year, not sure why they would be such a bad match up for the Hoosiers? I just think the Wildcats are a team that is destined to return to the mean sooner than later.

Kentucky is not hosting(not top 16) so they don't apply to the question.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Kentucky is not hosting(not top 16) so they don't apply to the question.

I'm aware, my response was to them taking out Indiana. I don't think it will happen.

 

[saywho]

If Reese isn't playing, I think UNC has a good chance to take out Arizona.

Georgia could take out Iowa St if they play well.

Colorado has the possibility to take out Iowa. I am curious to see how Clark handles their physicality. They are pretty brutal.

Oregon will take out Tennessee and actually could see them potentially upsetting Louisville, too. They are streaky, but if they play well, they can beat both.

LSU vs Ohio St should be interesting.

Utah also may give Texas a run for their money, but I think Texas will prevail. Though it is one on my radar.

Could Lee on Kansas St have another killer night against NCST, prolly not, but one to watch, too.

Notre Dame over Oklahoma is a good likelihood.

Kentucky, Princeton, and IU. That's just a rough subregional altogether.

Those are the ones I think have most potential for upsets.

 

[SECbbfan24]

LSU ain’t beating Ohio St if they don’t have Morris. That’s 15 to 17 points off the board right there alone. They haven’t sniffed the 70s since she has gone out and I don’t trust the defense enough to guard a decent 3 point shooting team

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

It pains me to say this, but I think UNC will emerge from the Tucson pod. If Cate Reese returns, I'd take Arizona but without her, I don't believe the Wildcats can keep up with the Tar Heels.

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Its an "iffy" thing. If she returns - which I'm not 100% certain based on never seeing it said that she is definitely back - I think I would take Arizona. More because, while I like Banghart and know she has done a great job, the few partial games I saw featuring UNC were not as impressive as I expected. Arizona is streaky for sure, but very good when they are "on". Being home would be a big factor.

Without Reese, it is problematical. There is no particular reason that Arizona should be playing so poorly without her - the team isn't short on talent, even though she would obviously be missed - but they are playing poorly. So I have no strong feeling.

I gave my tickets away to friends. Partly the fact my wife cannot be in a crowd due to her immunosuppression, my very slight fears of bringing something home, combined with the fact that the tickets, while good, are 14 rows from the court and I'm just not fond of being that high, plus all the games to watch on TV . . .

 

[visitingcock]

5 UNC v. 4 Arizona
5 Oregon v. 4 Tenn
5 Notre Dame v. 4 Oklahoma
5 Va Tech v. 4 Maryland

Losers in bold.

 

[Plebe]

Some history trivia:

Since the reversion to the format with the top 16 hosting the first weekend, 2 to 4 higher-seeded host teams have lost in the first weekend each year. Interestingly, more of these games have been lost by 3 seeds than by 4 seeds.

The following higher-seeded host teams have lost since this top-16-hosting format was re-adopted in 2015:

2015​

#2 Kentucky lost to #7 Dayton​

#3 Oregon State lost to #11 Gonzaga​

#4 Cal lost to #5 Texas​

​

2016​

#2 Maryland lost to #7 Washington​

#3 Louisville lost to #6 DePaul​

​

2017​

#2 Duke lost to #10 Oregon​

#4 Miami lost to #12 Quinnipiac​

#4 Kentucky lost to #5 Ohio State​

​

2018​

#3 Florida State lost to #11 Central Michigan​

#3 Ohio State lost to #11 Buffalo​

#3 Tennessee lost to #6 Oregon State​

#4 Georgia lost to #5 Duke​

​

2019​

#3 Iowa State lost to #11 Missouri State​

#3 Syracuse lost to #6 South Dakota State​

#3 Maryland lost to #6 UCLA​

#4 Miami lost to #5 Arizona State​

---

In the 2021 "bubble", of course, no one had home court advantage. Perhaps not coincidentally, this is the only time in recent history that a top 4 seed has lost in the first round (#4 Arkansas to #13 Wright State). The top 4 seeds who lost in the 2nd round were #3 Georgia (to #6 Oregon), #3 Tennessee (to #6 Michigan) #3 UCLA (to #6 Texas), and #4 Kentucky (to #5 Iowa).

 

[Floridaduck]

2017
#10 Oregon beats #2 Duke

 

[undersized]

I would like as many upsets as possible as long as the teams I root for are OK.

 

[Coler]

LSU ain’t beating Ohio St if they don’t have Morris. That’s 15 to 17 points off the board right there alone. They haven’t sniffed the 70s since she has gone out and I don’t trust the defense enough to guard a decent 3 point shooting team

 

[azfan]

5 UNC v. 4 Arizona
5 Oregon v. 4 Tenn
5 Notre Dame v. 4 Oklahoma
5 Va Tech v. 4 Maryland

Losers in bold.

Agree with you on the fighting Irish.

I think the home crowd energizes the Cats in what will be a really tough game against UNC. Reese I am fortunate enough to be close enough up I-10 to be going to that game.

Reese health:
"Reese, with the rest of the last three weeks, is further ahead in her recovery than Kriisa. She's back practicing with Adia Barnes' team and is expected to play against UNLV on Saturday.

The senior is averaging 15 points and six rebounds this season."

Injury report: Kriisa and Reese making progress for NCAA returns

UA needs both Kerr Kriisa (ankle) and Cate Reese (shoulder) on the court this weekend when the women's and men's basketball teams begin March Madness

www.kvoa.com

The other two are, in my view, toss ups, although I don't have a whole lot of confidence in the Ducks on the road.

 

[SECbbfan24]

If you havent realized by now I am Mr. Negativity. The sky is falling every day

 

[Hayven]

1: Tennessee won't beat Oregon, even if Horston returns.
2: As much as it pains me, I pick ND over Oklahoma as well.
3: Kentucky is playing great and Howard is finally playing like the All American we expected. so I'm taking them over Indiana.
4: LSU does not have the offense to keep up with Ohio State.

 

[triaddukefan]

2017
#10 Oregon beats #2 Duke

Hey hey hey... no need to bring that up

 

[Basket]

Some history trivia:

Since the reversion to the format with the top 16 hosting the first weekend, 2 to 4 higher-seeded host teams have lost in the first weekend each year. Interestingly, more of these games have been lost by 3 seeds than by 4 seeds.

The following higher-seeded host teams have lost since this top-16-hosting format was re-adopted in 2015:

2015​

#2 Kentucky lost to #7 Dayton​

#3 Oregon State lost to #11 Gonzaga​

#4 Cal lost to #5 Texas​

​

2016​

#2 Maryland lost to #7 Washington​

#3 Louisville lost to #6 DePaul​

​

2017​

#2 Duke lost to #10 Oregon​

#4 Miami lost to #12 Quinnipiac​

#4 Kentucky lost to #5 Ohio State​

​

2018​

#3 Florida State lost to #11 Central Michigan​

#3 Ohio State lost to #11 Buffalo​

#3 Tennessee lost to #6 Oregon State​

#4 Georgia lost to #5 Duke​

​

2019​

#3 Iowa State lost to #11 Missouri State​

#3 Syracuse lost to #6 South Dakota State​

#3 Maryland lost to #6 UCLA​

#4 Miami lost to #5 Arizona State​

---

In the 2021 "bubble", of course, no one had home court advantage. Perhaps not coincidentally, this is the only time in recent history that a top 4 seed has lost in the first round (#4 Arkansas to #13 Wright State). The top 4 seeds who lost in the 2nd round were #3 Georgia (to #6 Oregon), #3 Tennessee (to #6 Michigan) #3 UCLA (to #6 Texas), and #4 Kentucky (to #5 Iowa).

I remember 2016 #3 L’ville losing to #6 DePaul. Darn you Jessica January

 

[Plebe]

I remember 2016 #3 L’ville losing to #6 DePaul. Darn you Jessica January

The second time in 3 years that DePaul rained postseason terror on a haughty overrated ACC team.

 

[triaddukefan]

The second time in 3 years that DePaul rained postseason terror on a haughty overrated ACC team.

I see Plebe is trying to raise my blood pressure.. right before my visit to see the Doctor.

 

[Plebe]

I see Plebe is trying to raise my blood pressure.. right before my visit to see the Doctor.

I tried to throw you a bone by leaving Duke 2017 off the list above, but someone called me on it

 

[DeeHusky]

This year I don’t think anybody’s safe. You better show up to play or you’ll be watching from home like me.