Odds to win Womens Basketball National Championship

[BBallF]

In a NYC newspaper this morning- Oregon 5-2, Baylor 3-1, SC 3-1, UConn 11-2, Louisville 9-1, Stanford 10-1, OSU 18-1 and Md 25-1. So I guess we should be the #1 seed in Ft Wayne!

 

[Kaizen]

In a NYC newspaper this morning- Oregon 5-2, Baylor 3-1, SC 3-1, UConn 11-2, Louisville 9-1, Stanford 10-1, OSU 18-1 and Md 25-1. So I guess we should be the #1 seed in Ft Wayne!

And Creme put MD as the #1 seed in the Fort Wayne region, UConn as #2 seed in the Portland region.

Women's Bracketology: LSU, Iowa open on top line, but UConn is No. 1 overall

LSU and Iowa open as top seeds along with UConn and Utah. The Huskies are No. 1 overall in our first projection for 2023-24.

www.espn.com

 

[BBallF]

And Creme put MD as the #1 seed in the Fort Wayne region, UConn as #2 seed in the Portland region.

Women's Bracketology: LSU, Iowa open on top line, but UConn is No. 1 overall

LSU and Iowa open as top seeds along with UConn and Utah. The Huskies are No. 1 overall in our first projection for 2023-24.

www.espn.com

AP and WBCA both have us 6th with Maryland 7th, not 4th!

 

[fomalhaut]

I don't understand how Maryland can be a 1 seed and Northwestern a 3 seed. Northwestern is tied for the Big 10 lead, split with Maryland (9 point loss on the road and 23 point win at home). They played one bad game this year, a loss to Iowa (Maryland played Iowa twice and split). Maryland has a better SOS because they played South Carolina and NC State, but Maryland lost both of those games, and has no wins against ranked teams out of conference.

Massey has Maryland 4th and Northwestern 6th, which is at least more sensible.

(I don't understand how Maryland is ahead of Connecticut, either, but that's a different issue).

 

[EricLA]

I don't understand how Maryland can be a 1 seed and Northwestern a 3 seed. Northwestern is tied for the Big 10 lead, split with Maryland (9 point loss on the road and 23 point win at home). They played one bad game this year, a loss to Iowa (Maryland played Iowa twice and split). Maryland has a better SOS because they played South Carolina and NC State, but Maryland lost both of those games, and has no wins against ranked teams out of conference.

Massey has Maryland 4th and Northwestern 6th, which is at least more sensible.

(I don't understand how Maryland is ahead of Connecticut, either, but that's a different issue).

I tend to agree. 4 losses, at the time to unranked Iowa and Northwestern. A close loss to SC and NC State. UCONN has only 3 losses, to the #1,2 and 3 teams in the nation. BUT Maryland has a lot more top 25 wins. At times of win, Michigan, Iowa, Northwestern, and Indiana. Unfortunately, the P5 teams UCONN played this season were mostly not ranked.

Virginia, Cal, tOSU, Vandy, Seton Hall, ND, Oklahoma, etc. All having down years. Depaul is the only top 25 team we beat, and the other 3 we lost to by almost 20 each game.

 

[Centerstream]

I don't understand how Maryland can be a 1 seed and Northwestern a 3 seed. Northwestern is tied for the Big 10 lead, split with Maryland (9 point loss on the road and 23 point win at home). They played one bad game this year, a loss to Iowa (Maryland played Iowa twice and split). Maryland has a better SOS because they played South Carolina and NC State, but Maryland lost both of those games, and has no wins against ranked teams out of conference.

Massey has Maryland 4th and Northwestern 6th, which is at least more sensible.

(I don't understand how Maryland is ahead of Connecticut, either, but that's a different issue).

I don't understand it either but my take is Charlie will always lean towards having P5 schools as #1 seeds unless a certain non P5 school has less than two losses.

 

[UConn2SF]

 

[BostonBay]

This UConn team matches up well against MD. They would beat them. Too bad we didnt have that game on our schedule.

 

[bballnut90]

I don't understand how Maryland can be a 1 seed and Northwestern a 3 seed. Northwestern is tied for the Big 10 lead, split with Maryland (9 point loss on the road and 23 point win at home). They played one bad game this year, a loss to Iowa (Maryland played Iowa twice and split). Maryland has a better SOS because they played South Carolina and NC State, but Maryland lost both of those games, and has no wins against ranked teams out of conference.

Massey has Maryland 4th and Northwestern 6th, which is at least more sensible.

(I don't understand how Maryland is ahead of Connecticut, either, but that's a different issue).

I'd put Northwestern on the 2 line. If you look at the season in a nutshell and forget UCONN has been to 12 straight Final Fours and starts four top 5 recruits, NW and Maryland are far more tested and proven than Connecticut due to the strength of the Big Ten this year. The committee relies heavily on RPI rankings and looks at wins and records against Top 25 and Top 50 RPI teams.

UCONN's only wins are against RPI 21 and 22 Ohio State and DePaul. Their top 50 wins also include against UCF 2x (39) and Virginia (45). Their losses are to the top 3 teams but UCONN lost by 16-18 in all 3. They have no bad losses but no big wins either in the eyes of the committee.

Maryland has beat top 10 RPI teams in Iowa and NW, plus Indiana and Ohio State both twice. 6 top 25 wins. Expand it to top 50 and you have wins over Rutgers, Michigan (2), Purdue and James Madison. That's 11 top 50 wins. Their losses are to 3 teams in the top 10 RPI, and #20. Losses are worse than UCONN's but their wins are far better.


Northwestern has 8 wins right now over top 50 teams, but only has 1 top 10 win over Maryland. A win today will further boost their resume. They only have 3 losses, both top 10 teams and to DePaul. If they win out, they'll likely add 2 more wins against top 10 RPI teams (Iowa and MD), plus have the Ohio State win on Thurs and it's a 1 seed worthy resume IMO. Losses are slightly worse, but their wins are far better than UCONN's, especially if they win the Big Ten tournament.

I think everyone including myself has been sleeping on NW since no one expected them to be in contention for a #1 seed, but based on how the committee prioritizes RPI criteria, they're absolutely deserving to be in the conversation.

 

[VaConnFan11]

I think if UConn's 3 losses would have all been by single digits, then they would have a good argument for at least the #5. I know RPI does not take score into consideration, but the losses would have been more "pleasing" to the eye.

 

[ConnecticutBB]

If Maryland should loss the BIG TEN tournament might this improve UCONN chances of a #1seed?

 

[fomalhaut]

So now, if I'm interpreting the S-curve correctly, Charlie Creme has bumped Connecticut down to #8, in the Greenville bracket potentially playing South Carolina in the Elite 8 (with Northwestern now on the 2nd line). On the brighter side, Connecticut inched back up to 4th in the coaches' poll.

The problem with a lot of the analysis is that RPI is utter garbage.

 

[bballnut90]

So now, if I'm interpreting the S-curve correctly, Charlie Creme has bumped Connecticut down to #8, in the Greenville bracket potentially playing South Carolina in the Elite 8 (with Northwestern now on the 2nd line). On the brighter side, Connecticut inched back up to 4th in the coaches' poll.

The problem with a lot of the analysis is that RPI is utter garbage.

It usually isn't S curve, but whoever the top 2 seed is gets the remaining regional that's closest to home. So UCONN could be as high as 6 or 7 since Fort Wayne is the first choice and they got their 2nd choice for location. It gets complicated though because teams playing very close to home get preferential treatment to stay in their home region if they can draw a big crowd, and the committee typically tries to avoid putting highly seeded teams from the same conference in the same regional.