Odds to make the 2020 NCAA Tournament (TeamRankings)
- Thread starter Drew
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Drew
Its a post, about nothing!
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Wins needed: 24. Current Record: 6-3 (0-0)
Must wins:
Iona- W 80-62
St. Peters
UNH
NJIT
USF
@ USF
Tulane
@ Tulane
@ ECU
Need 10 from:
IU (Neutral)- L: 57-54
@ Villanova
Cincinnati
@ Cincinnati
Wichita State
Memphis
@ Memphis
Houston
@ Houston
Tulsa
@ Tulsa
Temple
@ Temple
@ SMU
UCF
No doubt about it- last night's loss hurts. We're down to a 34% chance to make the tournament, with a 70% chance at 23 wins and 93% chance at 24 wins. Need to take care of business the next 3 games at home before breaking into conference play at Cincinnati.
Must wins:
Iona- W 80-62
St. Peters
UNH
NJIT
USF
@ USF
Tulane
@ Tulane
@ ECU
Need 10 from:
IU (Neutral)- L: 57-54
@ Villanova
Cincinnati
@ Cincinnati
Wichita State
Memphis
@ Memphis
Houston
@ Houston
Tulsa
@ Tulsa
Temple
@ Temple
@ SMU
UCF
No doubt about it- last night's loss hurts. We're down to a 34% chance to make the tournament, with a 70% chance at 23 wins and 93% chance at 24 wins. Need to take care of business the next 3 games at home before breaking into conference play at Cincinnati.
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There's a greater chance for 24 wins than 23 wins? That has to be a typo.
nelsonmuntz
Point Center
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That is the chance of making the tournament with those respective win totals.
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O.K. got it. Thanks. I guess my reading comprehension skills stink.
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Unfortunately we are probably going to lose at least one of those "must win" games. Using Kenpom win% projections we have a ~29% chance at going 8-0 playing that group.
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Torvik also has it at 34% chance at the tourney. They have 7 games left against Q1 and 5 games left against Q2.
To make the tourney they need to go likely 3-4 in those games for Q1; Torvik currently projecting 1-6 record (Memphis at home as a W). Those games are:
- Away: Cincinnati, Villanova, Houston, Memphis, Temple
- Home: Wichita State, Memphis
If they can pull off winning both games at home and one of the away games, they would have a good case come Selection Sunday (assuming they take care of business Q3/Q4) and play above .500 v. Q2.
He is still predicting 20-11 (11-7) as he has for a couple weeks now, which is definitely NIT. That's OK for year 2, there has been significant improvement building towards an NCAA bid next year.
The window of opportunity hasn't closed yet but they need to steal a minimum 2 games from above that they are currently projected to lose.
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I think they will be fine. Last night was a winnable game that they should have probably won same with Xavier. I think both those teams are as good as majority of the American. Just need to fix a couple things and we will win games. I would like to think the Vital, Gilbert, Adams and Bouk couldn't play much worse. If they contribute at all we will win games they might say we shouldn't.
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Hopefully we can learn from our many mistakes and that’s likely the last extremely sloppy and terrible game of Hurleys tenure. Gotta clean it up, make *maybe* some lineup changes and just get everyone producing and dare I say it... do your job. I think we will have a better conference record than 11-7 but they cannot take any off games each game they have to bring 100% effort and intensity and also need to play smart and not get too cocky thinking they are the team. Unfortunately after we got hype after Charleston, most members believed they were basketball gods and they best players to grace the court.(ok that might be an overreaction) but the point is that you can see that with Vital, Gilbert, and Bouk that they don’t seem to be as productive and it might be the mentality from James unfortunately that it’s easy for him but since Miami we haven’t seen the same Sir. Same for Vital and AG, the past 3 games for them no complaints and maybe it got to their head and discipline for bonehead plays maybe slipped. since they are the leaders of the team, that could’ve trickled down throughout the team.