Odds to make the 2020 NCAA Tournament (TeamRankings)

[Drew]

These guys do a pretty good job on an annual basis of placing the percentage chance teams make the NCAA Tournament. AAC percentages below as of 12/4:

Memphis: 86%
Houston: 69%
Wichita State: 59%
Temple: 58%
Cincinnati: 44%
UConn: 38%
SMU: 7%
UCF: 5%
Tulsa: 2%
Tulane: 1%
USF: 1%
ECU: < 1%

Source

I’ll be curious to see where our percentage jumps to if we can beat Indiana at MSG. That would be a huge huge huge feather in our cap come March, especially given their win over FSU last night. Also wouldn’t be surprised if SMU makes a run at it despite their low chances right now.

 

[Jaker]

If we should beat IU i bet we go up to 60%

 

[Drew]

UConn odds only:

The above is an awesome breakdown of our tournament chances/profile and the odds associated with win numbers and seed lines. 24 wins seems to be the magic number for us to make the tournament.

 

[Greedo]

Big East Percentages:

Villanova 94%
Seton Hall 93%
Butler 89%
Marquette 74%
Xavier 72%
Creighton 29%
Georgetown 19% (I'm guessing this will drop dramatically)
DePaul 11%
Providence 11%
St. Johns 3%

 

[CL82]

It's interesting to see with W/L records and how little they impact percentages. I guess it is SOS based? In any event they have us at 20-11. I think most of us would have been happy to sign up for that before the start of the season. If everything comes together and we stay healthy doing a bit better than that is certainly a possibility.

 

[CL82]

UConn odds only:

The above is an awesome breakdown of our tournament chances/profile and the odds associated with win numbers and seed lines. 24 wins seems to be the magic number for us to make the tournament.

Our chances of making the tournament is the sum of our chances of winning the AAC tourney plus our at large chances? That seems simplistic.

 

[auror]

Our chances of making the tournament is the sum of our chances of winning the AAC tourney plus our at large chances? That seems simplistic.

View attachment 48821

How else would we get into the tournament?

The at large chances have the "at large quality but won the auto bid already" scenarios subtracted out. You can see this by looking at the best teams whose at large chances don't go above like 55% despite it being more like 90%.

 

[CL82]

It's likely the at large chances have the "at large quality but won the auto bid already" scenarios subtracted out.

Ah, okay. That makes sense.

 

[Drew]

I posted the schedule breakdown on twitter but am too lazy to retype so am just going to post my own tweet here:



we have to 1. Beat all the teams we should beat (duh) and 2. Steal one of IU or Nova. It’s really a must. Or else... (next post can’t post more than 1 tweet in a BY Post)

 

[Drew]

We’ll need to go 15-3 in the regular season AAC to hit that number. Again these are assuming regular season numbers only, meaning the percentages change when factoring in AACT games (and all conference tournaments for that matter)

 

[Drew]

I’ll run with this and update it maybe on a weekly basis on here but this is how it breaks down for us to make the tournament:

Wins needed: 24. Current Record: 5-2 (0-0)

Must wins:

Iona
St. Peters
UNH
NJIT
USF
@ USF
Tulane
@ Tulane
@ ECU

Need 10 from:

IU (Neutral)
@ Villanova
Cincinnati
@ Cincinnati
Wichita State
Memphis
@ Memphis
Houston
@ Houston
Tulsa
@ Tulsa
Temple
@ Temple
@ SMU
UCF

 

[WrenchFan69]

We're going to beat IU

 

[SubbaBub]

No way the AAC is getting 6 bids. Finish in the top 3, beat either IU or Nova and it should be fine.

 

[ucawn]

Such fun to read all this hypothetical tourney talk again. This team is capable of winning the AAC and has the talent to do so. But will they have to right mindset and mentality to just play as hard as they can day in and day out. I think we have a good shot at winning the AAC tourney now that we’ve found this depth that we have and we’ve proven to be solid at tournament play (Charleston). Hopefully we finish top 4 in conference and can escape December 10-2. Then we’re looking solid.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I’ll run with this and update it maybe on a weekly basis on here but this is how it breaks down for us to make the tournament:

Wins needed: 24. Current Record: 5-2 (0-0)

Must wins:

Iona
St. Peters
UNH
NJIT
USF
@ USF
Tulane
@ Tulane
@ ECU

Need 10 from:

IU (Neutral)
@ Villanova
Cincinnati
@ Cincinnati
Wichita State
Memphis
@ Memphis
Houston
@ Houston
Tulsa
@ Tulsa
Temple
@ Temple
@ SMU
UCF

That's 24 wins in the regular season. And that's to 94%. We don't need to get to 94% to get in. That's just lock territory. I will assume we can get two wins in the AAC tournament as well, meaning this isn't quite as difficult as you project. Much will depend on how the bubble looks and how the teams we beat do. Beat IU and have it and Florida become a very strong win would really help.

 

[BFieldHusky]

That's 24 wins in the regular season. And that's to 94%. We don't need to get to 94% to get in. That's just lock territory. I will assume we can get two wins in the AAC tournament as well, meaning this isn't quite as difficult as you project. Much will depend on how the bubble looks and how the teams we beat do. Beat IU and have it and Florida become a very strong win would really help.

Agreed. And hope Miami can win some games in the ACC and they can turn into a solid win as well.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Can’t wait til 15-3 in conference gets a 3 seed not the play in game.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

A month ago, the need to go 3-1 against our Philadelphia Big 5 opponents was likely a majority opinion here for getting an at-large bid. Might still be the case.

 

[HuskyHawk]

A month ago, the need to go 3-1 against our Philadelphia Big 5 opponents was likely a majority opinion here for getting an at-large bid. Might still be the case.

That assumed a loss to Florida, which more or less cancels the St. Joes loss.

 

[QDOG5]

Also wouldn’t be surprised if SMU makes a run at it despite their low chances right now.

I've said before and I'll say it again SMU is not going to the tourney with Jankovich as head coach.

 

[Travelman6]

If we should beat IU i bet we go up to 60%

I will be cheering for Indiana to beat Wisconsin, that is for sure.

 

[Drew]

I've said before and I'll say it again SMU is not going to the tourney with Jankovich as head coach.

Pretty sure they already did no?

 

[SubInATub]

Pretty sure they already did no?

2017

 

[QDOG5]

I knew that comment would bite me in the butt. I'm wrong again. 30-5 in his first year with Larry Brown's guys. Out in the first round of the tourney. Then 17-16, 15-17 in years 2 and 3. 9th in the aac the last two years. I see they're 8-0 this year but their ooc schedule would make Boeheim blush.

 

[YoungFree]

View attachment 48820
It's interesting to see with W/L records and how little they impact percentages. I guess it is SOS based? In any event they have us at 20-11. I think most of us would have been happy to sign up for that before the start of the season. If everything comes together and we stay healthy doing a bit better than that is certainly a possibility.

I wonder if they have us at 20-11 because that's ESPN'S Power Index prediction.... It's like the Florida and Xavier games aren't even helping us...