Observations/Lessons From Last Year's Baylor Game and Box Score

[Zanzman]

Pretty comparable IMO when you factor in Cox not being 100%. I think Huskies are arguably stronger this year because their go to player is more capable with the ball in her hands than Collier or KLS were. Guessing itll be a prettier offensive game than last year's was.

Really better ball handlers crystal yes Meghan no

 

[BostonBay]

The Baylor game last year forebode the ultimate outcome of last year's team. The team was never the same after the Baylor game. UConn was dominated by Baylor's physical style, and even though UConn was in shouting distance, I never felt UConn would win. I worry about the same outcome this year. We will see how much "fight" this year's team has after Thursday.

 

[HopJim]

As I posted earlier, apples vs. oranges BUT most here are worried about Lauren's offensive impact on Liv. I submit - how about Cox defending the MUCH improved Liv????

Appreciate your netting out key points. Most of the key players, excluding Cox, are new and we have little to make a full comparison. Williams and Walker, while holdovers, are essentially playing new roles with different results to last year.

 

[bballnut90]

Really better ball handlers crystal yes Meghan no

It's not ball handling as much as it's the ability to get to the basket and make something happen. Last year the team shot almost 50% of their shots (32-68) from beyond the arc and drew 9 fouls on Baylor the entire game. KLS and Collier had their strengths but neither attacked the basket from the perimeter. Williams and Walker are both very quick off the bounce if they attack the rim. It's a different dimension that UCONN didn't have a year ago which will be harder for Baylor to deal with.

 

[bballnut90]

As I posted earlier, apples vs. oranges BUT most here are worried about Lauren's offensive impact on Liv. I submit - how about Cox defending the MUCH improved Liv????

Nah, don't see it. ONO has had her big games against extremely undersized teams like Oklahoma, Wichita State, Dayton, Notre Dame and DePaul. Put a big her size on her and she hasn't been that effective (SMU, Ohio State, Cal) with the one outlier being the Vandy game where she did well against 6-5 Fasoula. On top of that, Cox is a different beast from all of them.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Box score?

 

[Centerstream]

Nah, don't see it. ONO has had her big games against extremely undersized teams like Oklahoma, Wichita State, Dayton, Notre Dame and DePaul. Put a big her size on her and she hasn't been that effective (SMU, Ohio State, Cal) with the one outlier being the Vandy game where she did well against 6-5 Fasoula. On top of that, Cox is a different beast from all of them.

That's your opinion and you are entitled to it. I am not going to discuss this with you because it is all based on opinion and, well,...

 

[bballnut90]

That's your opinion and you are entitled to it. I am not going to discuss this with you because it is all based on opinion and, well,...

Sorry it doesnt fit your narrative but it's not based on opinion. Look at the stats and her productivity against smaller teams vs larger.

 

[BroadwayVa]

I hesitate to start yet another Baylor pregame thread, but this one (I promise) has a different and narrower focus -- specifically, what can be learned from re-watching last year's game in Waco and looking at the box score of that game. I did both of those things this afternoon, and here is what I came up with:

1. The importance of Kalani Brown's presence last year (and thus of her absence this year) cannot be overstated. She had 22 points and 17 rebounds in last year's game, and the announcers mentioned that it was only her second double-double in last year's season. She made a number of long 2-point jump shots from around the top of the key, which UConn had decided to concede to her (very sensibly). UConn also allowed Lauren Cox to have any shot she wanted from even mid-range distance, and that bet paid off -- Lauren was only 3-for-12 overall and 0-for-5 from 3-point range. The high-low game between Brown and Cox was very difficult to stop, even with UConn keeping three defenders low for the entire game. None of that kind of action will be available when the teams meet this week, unless Baylor goes to their bench for a "twin tower" to match with Cox. I doubt that they will do that very much.
2. Quite surprising to me was the fact that Baylor had no great rebounding advantage in last year's game, when their size advantage over UConn was much greater than it will be in this week's game. Baylor had 46 total rebounds (including 13 offensive boards), compared to UConn's 43 rebounds (15 offensive). It's true that Pheesa and Lou had 11 rebounds each, a total which Liv and Megan will be challenged to match. Watching the game, it did not appear to me that UConn was unduly challenged in clearing their defensive boards -- Baylor took a lot of shots with no offensive rebounders anywhere near the basket. Crystal was able to get 6 rebounds and Christyn got 3, despite being the Lilliputians on the floor. That suggests to me that in this year's game (with no one like Brown on the floor), UConn should be able to hold its own on the boards at both ends of the court.
3. Juicy Landrum made 3 early 3-point shots before UConn started face-guarding her, even using Mikayla Coombs for that purpose to give Christyn a rest from that duty. Mikayla was inconsistent in that role and allowed Landrum to get free for a few more 2-point scores. UConn even used a box-and-one against Landrum at one point in the first half. I think there is zero chance that Landrum will be allowed any significant space for jump shots in Thursday's game (bearing in mind, once again, that there is no presence like Brown on the floor demanding defensive focus).
4. The big reason that Baylor won last year is that UConn shot 29% for the game (despite a respectable 11-for-32 from 3-point range), and UConn got destroyed in the category of scoring in the paint (52-10 in favor of Baylor). It is safe to assume that Baylor will score significantly more than UConn in the paint on Thursday night, but hopefully the margin won't be 42 points. The reasons for UConn's low shooting percentage appeared to be: (a) Baylor played really good defense, so that UConn's normal maneuvers on offense did not result in open shots; (b) UConn got only 3 points off turnovers and zero fast break points, indicating that UConn was unable to speed up the pace and get out of the half-court grind; and (c) all UConn shooters missed a lot of jump shots that they normally make, and that were open. In interviews during the game, Kim said that Baylor was playing the best defense it was capable of playing, and Geno said that UConn's open shots did not come from the offense but rather from opportunistic play. I'm sure both of those are reasons for the low shooting percentage.
5. And (of interest to those who harp on UConn's lack of depth), Baylor's bench did indeed outscore UConn's bench 12-0, but all 12 points came from Nalyssa Smith, who is a starter this year. Kim basically used a rotation of 6 players. Geno used 8 players (Olivia, Batouly, and Coombs all got minutes, and none of them was particularly effective). This year, it appears that Kim is not relying on her bench for any significant scoring. I think it is quite possible that Aubrey and Anna will outscore Baylor's bench in Thursday's game.

I think the summary of these points is that (even beyond the inherent home court advantage), UConn should be in a comparatively better position to win this year's game than they were for last year's. The keys are that Geno must figure out how to stop Baylor from slowing the pace and preventing UConn fast breaks, the jump shooters must hit their normal percentages from both 2 and 3-point range, and the Baylor advantage in scoring in the paint must be reduced even if it cannot be eliminated.

I'm revising my opinion of Baylor and Geno's possibilities of success. The BEARS are really beatable. Cox ain't so much. Their defense leaves a lot to be desired and offense is a dream of theirs.
Geno I thought was a tough side line coach--Mulkey makes Geno look like my long loved grandfather throwing candy at us. I'm watching ASU Vs Bears. 3rd Qtr 36 baylor 40 ASU (never trailed). On Youtube.

 

[msf22b]

Cox, Cox, Cox...that's all I hear...Even Geno when asked if he was concerned about the Baylor guards, said he was much more worried about he interior.

Bur Te'a Cooper scored 32 points the other night against OK....some really difficult shots.
She's been mentioned once in this thread.

Are we forgetting someone?

 

[Centerstream]

Sorry it doesnt fit your narrative but it's not based on opinion. Look at the stats and her productivity against smaller teams vs larger.

My narrative is how Cox vs. Liv is going to go, which is based on opinion and what happened in the past has nothing to do with the future.
And no matter what my opinion is, yours will be the opposite because well...
Bye.

 

[DEpup]

Cox, Cox, Cox...that's all I hear...Even Geno when asked if he was concerned about the Baylor guards, said he was much more worried about he interior.

Bur Te'a Cooper scored 32 points the other night against OK....some really difficult shots.
She's been mentioned once in this thread.

Are we forgetting someone?

No. Cooper historically has been hit or miss.

 

[Zanzman]

Cox spends a lot of time playing the interior

 

[bballnut90]

Cox, Cox, Cox...that's all I hear...Even Geno when asked if he was concerned about the Baylor guards, said he was much more worried about he interior.

Bur Te'a Cooper scored 32 points the other night against OK....some really difficult shots.
She's been mentioned once in this thread.

Are we forgetting someone?

No because if Cooper takes 20+ shots she's probably going to shoot her team out of the game. And scoring a bunch of points against a bad OU isnt something that likely translates playing against UCONN.

 

[bballnut90]

My narrative is how Cox vs. Liv is going to go, which is based on opinion and what happened in the past has nothing to do with the future.
And no matter what my opinion is, yours will be the opposite because well...
Bye.

Not trying to flame but what makes you think Cox will have a hard time defending ONO? I've stated my rationale, curious to hear your reasoning.

 

[DEpup]

I wasn't asked but I'll provide an opinion. I think Cox is still coming back from injury and getting game fit therefore she won't be as quick as usual. If UConn can get some cutting and high low action with ONO they could draw some fouls with Cox swatting at ONO.

 

[eebmg]

What value is there to beat Baylor if Cox is not playing at a high level? Fools gold. Have to beat the best when they are at their best. (Except elimination games when a win is a win of course)

 

[Centerstream]

I wasn't asked but I'll provide an opinion. I think Cox is still coming back from injury and getting game fit therefore she won't be as quick as usual. If UConn can get some cutting and high low action with ONO they could draw some fouls with Cox swatting at ONO.

What @DEpup said. Plus I wouldn't consider Lauren as "quick" even before her injuries. But, then, Liv is probably not considered quick by some. Who knows?

Not trying to flame but what makes you think Cox will have a hard time defending ONO? I've stated my rationale, curious to hear your reasoning.

There is no rationale for a future game, it is all based upon opinion. Did the stats confirm that last year CW would have a breakout game against the Golden Domers? Did the stats confirm that Aubrey would play like she did against Seton Hall this season? No, they did not. So no stats matter for a future game. Apples vs. Oranges, as has been posted many times, including by me in this thread.
You are entitled to your interpretation of past stats to come up with all the anti UConn rationales that you want, it is allowed here and even welcomed by some but...

 

[CL82]

We will learn a lot about this year's team in this game. That is why Geno sets such a challenging schedule for Connecticut each year. I'd rather discover the weak points in January, when there is time to adjust, rather than March.

I enjoyed this thread particularly the analysis and predictions. My complements to those who took the time to put so much thought into their posts. I haven't watched Baylor this year and this year's UConn team is still an enigma to me, at least as to how they will match up against the defending champs. I'm looking forward to the game, and have been all week.

 

[winlots]

JOE PGH: Very keen post, and it has lead to a very keen thread. Congrats to Joe and to ALL who have participated. Great job.