Observations/Lessons From Last Year's Baylor Game and Box Score

[JoePgh]

I hesitate to start yet another Baylor pregame thread, but this one (I promise) has a different and narrower focus -- specifically, what can be learned from re-watching last year's game in Waco and looking at the box score of that game. I did both of those things this afternoon, and here is what I came up with:

1. The importance of Kalani Brown's presence last year (and thus of her absence this year) cannot be overstated. She had 22 points and 17 rebounds in last year's game, and the announcers mentioned that it was only her second double-double in last year's season. She made a number of long 2-point jump shots from around the top of the key, which UConn had decided to concede to her (very sensibly). UConn also allowed Lauren Cox to have any shot she wanted from even mid-range distance, and that bet paid off -- Lauren was only 3-for-12 overall and 0-for-5 from 3-point range. The high-low game between Brown and Cox was very difficult to stop, even with UConn keeping three defenders low for the entire game. None of that kind of action will be available when the teams meet this week, unless Baylor goes to their bench for a "twin tower" to match with Cox. I doubt that they will do that very much.
2. Quite surprising to me was the fact that Baylor had no great rebounding advantage in last year's game, when their size advantage over UConn was much greater than it will be in this week's game. Baylor had 46 total rebounds (including 13 offensive boards), compared to UConn's 43 rebounds (15 offensive). It's true that Pheesa and Lou had 11 rebounds each, a total which Liv and Megan will be challenged to match. Watching the game, it did not appear to me that UConn was unduly challenged in clearing their defensive boards -- Baylor took a lot of shots with no offensive rebounders anywhere near the basket. Crystal was able to get 6 rebounds and Christyn got 3, despite being the Lilliputians on the floor. That suggests to me that in this year's game (with no one like Brown on the floor), UConn should be able to hold its own on the boards at both ends of the court.
3. Juicy Landrum made 3 early 3-point shots before UConn started face-guarding her, even using Mikayla Coombs for that purpose to give Christyn a rest from that duty. Mikayla was inconsistent in that role and allowed Landrum to get free for a few more 2-point scores. UConn even used a box-and-one against Landrum at one point in the first half. I think there is zero chance that Landrum will be allowed any significant space for jump shots in Thursday's game (bearing in mind, once again, that there is no presence like Brown on the floor demanding defensive focus).
4. The big reason that Baylor won last year is that UConn shot 29% for the game (despite a respectable 11-for-32 from 3-point range), and UConn got destroyed in the category of scoring in the paint (52-10 in favor of Baylor). It is safe to assume that Baylor will score significantly more than UConn in the paint on Thursday night, but hopefully the margin won't be 42 points. The reasons for UConn's low shooting percentage appeared to be: (a) Baylor played really good defense, so that UConn's normal maneuvers on offense did not result in open shots; (b) UConn got only 3 points off turnovers and zero fast break points, indicating that UConn was unable to speed up the pace and get out of the half-court grind; and (c) all UConn shooters missed a lot of jump shots that they normally make, and that were open. In interviews during the game, Kim said that Baylor was playing the best defense it was capable of playing, and Geno said that UConn's open shots did not come from the offense but rather from opportunistic play. I'm sure both of those are reasons for the low shooting percentage.
5. And (of interest to those who harp on UConn's lack of depth), Baylor's bench did indeed outscore UConn's bench 12-0, but all 12 points came from Nalyssa Smith, who is a starter this year. Kim basically used a rotation of 6 players. Geno used 8 players (Olivia, Batouly, and Coombs all got minutes, and none of them was particularly effective). This year, it appears that Kim is not relying on her bench for any significant scoring. I think it is quite possible that Aubrey and Anna will outscore Baylor's bench in Thursday's game.

I think the summary of these points is that (even beyond the inherent home court advantage), UConn should be in a comparatively better position to win this year's game than they were for last year's. The keys are that Geno must figure out how to stop Baylor from slowing the pace and preventing UConn fast breaks, the jump shooters must hit their normal percentages from both 2 and 3-point range, and the Baylor advantage in scoring in the paint must be reduced even if it cannot be eliminated.

 

[Centerstream]

Comparing apples to oranges.
New players, different venue, different refs (I am guessing on this), different number of NC Banners hanging, etc.

 

[cohenzone]

I think we had two AAs on last years team who are elsewhere at the moment. A small difference.

 

[bballnut90]

Very different teams this year.

Last year KLS and Collier was the focal point of everything for UCONN. Walker wasnt nearly as good as she is now, and Williams was an inconsistent freshman. The biggest difference IMO is that you have a big presence inside defensively, and a more athletic and aggressive Megan Walker who brings a tougher dimension to matchup with for Baylor than Collier or KLS. My guess is Richard's face guards her. That's the matchup to watch IMO. UCONN needs Williams to have a big night and for Dangerfield to not shy away from taking shots and being aggressive. ONO cant get into foul trouble and needs to do well on the glass. Offensively I dont expect a lot from her going up against Cox. I dont see much production from Irwin/whoever is the 5th player out there. Any added buckets or big plays will help a lot. To Irwin's credit, she seems to understand her role quite well in that she doesnt try to do too much but doesnt detract from the team either.

For Baylor, they also look immensely different without Brown, no Jackson and Lauren Cox who doesnt look 100%. The offense this year for Baylor is a lot less organized IMO. There isnt a clear number 1 option right now, and from the games I've seen with Cox, they dont appear to be funneling the offense through her in the same manner they did a year ago. Cox is good but not great around the rim and her midrange is inconsistent. Last year she had an atrocious offensive game vs UCONN and missed everything from midrange. She struggled shooting against OU the other day. Theyll need her to score well or impact the game at a high level offensively come Thursday. They dont win without the ball going through her.

Egbo has been a brightspot but she is nowhere close to being as good as Brown was offensively. Brown was taller, much stronger and much better at sealing her defender down low and better at catching entry passes, not to mention being a better finisher around the basket. Not trying to tear her down, but I think she struggles going up a bigger and more athletic defender than the cupcakes Baylor has played. She played horribly against Boston earlier this year. She'll come off the bench and might get limited minutes IMO if she doesnt produce early. Really good running the floor though if it is fast paced. Any production from her is a big plus IMO.

Smith is improved this year after a great freshman season, but again, she isnt a big low post like Brown was. She's more of a slasher and does well in the midrange and around the rim but doesnt overpower anyone. I think someone like Walker can effectively guard her. Whether she does or not will be a big story. Smith needs to attack the glass and get some buckets for Baylor.

I think Degrate could be a factor this game with her sheer size too, especially if Egbo is ineffective. Degrate has looked good against underwhelming competition, but i could see her being a spark plug and getting a couple of buckets inside if Baylor is struggling.

The backcourt may make or break Baylor. Richards is excellent defensively and usually a strong decision maker. And added offense from her will be great but not expected. Landrum is capable of lighting teams up but isnt very aggressive at seeking out her shot. She needs to hunt shots harder than she normally does. And then lastly there's Te'a Cooper who has more of a scorer's personality than Jackson did last year. Te'a's decision making was quite poor vs SC and she isnt the most efficient player. If she plays too much Te'a ball, Baylor is cooked. If she focuses on getting the ball to the right players I think they have the edge.

Lastly, crowd factor is a HUGE edge for UCONN. They havent lost at home in 7 years and will have a big crowd on Thursday. I think UCONN has the edge going into it. Xfactor for UCONN offensively is Walker, defensively it is ONO. Xfactor for Baylor offensively is Cooper, defensively it's Richards. I think this is the most amped I've been for a matchup so far this season where we really havent seen many heavy hitters go to battle.

 

[Triad]

I hesitate to start yet another Baylor pregame thread, but this one (I promise) has a different and narrower focus -- specifically, what can be learned from re-watching last year's game in Waco and looking at the box score of that game. I did both of those things this afternoon, and here is what I came up with:

1. The importance of Kalani Brown's presence last year (and thus of her absence this year) cannot be overstated. She had 22 points and 17 rebounds in last year's game, and the announcers mentioned that it was only her second double-double in last year's season. She made a number of long 2-point jump shots from around the top of the key, which UConn had decided to concede to her (very sensibly). UConn also allowed Lauren Cox to have any shot she wanted from even mid-range distance, and that bet paid off -- Lauren was only 3-for-12 overall and 0-for-5 from 3-point range. The high-low game between Brown and Cox was very difficult to stop, even with UConn keeping three defenders low for the entire game. None of that kind of action will be available when the teams meet this week, unless Baylor goes to their bench for a "twin tower" to match with Cox. I doubt that they will do that very much.
2. Quite surprising to me was the fact that Baylor had no great rebounding advantage in last year's game, when their size advantage over UConn was much greater than it will be in this week's game. Baylor had 46 total rebounds (including 13 offensive boards), compared to UConn's 43 rebounds (15 offensive). It's true that Pheesa and Lou had 11 rebounds each, a total which Liv and Megan will be challenged to match. Watching the game, it did not appear to me that UConn was unduly challenged in clearing their defensive boards -- Baylor took a lot of shots with no offensive rebounders anywhere near the basket. Crystal was able to get 6 rebounds and Christyn got 3, despite being the Lilliputians on the floor. That suggests to me that in this year's game (with no one like Brown on the floor), UConn should be able to hold its own on the boards at both ends of the court.
3. Juicy Landrum made 3 early 3-point shots before UConn started face-guarding her, even using Mikayla Coombs for that purpose to give Christyn a rest from that duty. Mikayla was inconsistent in that role and allowed Landrum to get free for a few more 2-point scores. UConn even used a box-and-one against Landrum at one point in the first half. I think there is zero chance that Landrum will be allowed any significant space for jump shots in Thursday's game (bearing in mind, once again, that there is no presence like Brown on the floor demanding defensive focus).
4. The big reason that Baylor won last year is that UConn shot 29% for the game (despite a respectable 11-for-32 from 3-point range), and UConn got destroyed in the category of scoring in the paint (52-10 in favor of Baylor). It is safe to assume that Baylor will score significantly more than UConn in the paint on Thursday night, but hopefully the margin won't be 42 points. The reasons for UConn's low shooting percentage appeared to be: (a) Baylor played really good defense, so that UConn's normal maneuvers on offense did not result in open shots; (b) UConn got only 3 points off turnovers and zero fast break points, indicating that UConn was unable to speed up the pace and get out of the half-court grind; and (c) all UConn shooters missed a lot of jump shots that they normally make, and that were open. In interviews during the game, Kim said that Baylor was playing the best defense it was capable of playing, and Geno said that UConn's open shots did not come from the offense but rather from opportunistic play. I'm sure both of those are reasons for the low shooting percentage.
5. And (of interest to those who harp on UConn's lack of depth), Baylor's bench did indeed outscore UConn's bench 12-0, but all 12 points came from Nalyssa Smith, who is a starter this year. Kim basically used a rotation of 6 players. Geno used 8 players (Olivia, Batouly, and Coombs all got minutes, and none of them was particularly effective). This year, it appears that Kim is not relying on her bench for any significant scoring. I think it is quite possible that Aubrey and Anna will outscore Baylor's bench in Thursday's game.

I think the summary of these points is that (even beyond the inherent home court advantage), UConn should be in a comparatively better position to win this year's game than they were for last year's. The keys are that Geno must figure out how to stop Baylor from slowing the pace and preventing UConn fast breaks, the jump shooters must hit their normal percentages from both 2 and 3-point range, and the Baylor advantage in scoring in the paint must be reduced even if it cannot be eliminated.

Neither Kim nor Me are worried about Baylor's bench. FACT--Uconn has 7 , count em, 7 players 3 of which didn't play last year and 2 of which are frosh. Beyond that there is Molly then nothing of real talent or healthy.
Spin it any way you choose. Be assured that rotation number is not lost on Geno particularly with ONO and Walker, Danger (hip issues kept her out of a game this year). Last year rebounding was accomplished by a "ball magnet" Napheesa.
Does Geno this game expect opportunistic scoring or open shots? I'm a believer that Geno will have some mode/method to open the 4 scorers and open opportunities When Mulkey defeated Uconn it has been with overwhelming height (Griner/Brown) Cox as long as Olivia Nelson Ododa is foul free will not run the table.
I doubt Geno will start off face guarding anyone until they prove it must be done. A box and one typically negates the help defense to some degree and that works well for Uconn. I hope initially Irwin gets Cox until she proves she can't but I'd expect Kyla to get 2 or 3 offensive fouls on her. That would even up the game a bit.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

From the FWIW department... Last Year UCONN vs Baylor was played on Jan 3rd. This was UCONN's first game since Dec 22 and they went on holiday break. And, as we may recall, UCONN had a couple of closer than expected games right before the break at OK and CAL. For Baylor, they had a game on Dec 31 vs a "cupcake"....and as expected it was a blow out....but more importantly, it gave them a "game scenario" to work off some of the holiday calories, hangover and rust. UCONN had no such "warm up game"...and had to travel to Baylor soon after returning from break thus shortening their practice time. This time, both teams have had some games since the break and both played well...but this time Baylor has to travel to the cold Northeast.

Again...just sayin'... and FWIW.

 

[Monte]

From the FWIW department... Last Year UCONN vs Baylor was played on Jan 3rd. This was UCONN's first game since Dec 22 and they went on holiday break. And, as we may recall, UCONN had a couple of closer than expected games right before the break at OK and CAL. For Baylor, they had a game on Dec 31 vs a "cupcake"....and as expected it was a blow out....but more importantly, it gave them a "game scenario" to work off some of the holiday calories, hangover and rust. UCONN had no such "warm up game"...and had to travel to Baylor soon after returning from break thus shortening their practice time. This time, both teams have had some games since the break and both played well...but this time Baylor has to travel to the cold Northeast.

Again...just sayin'... and FWIW.

Cold?? Hartford is supposed to be 61 degrees later this week(53 in Waco).

 

[meyers7]

Cold?? Hartford is supposed to be 61 degrees later this week(53 in Waco).

Hi of 32F Thursday (game day). Coldest day this week.

University of Houston might get some warmer weather when they are here Sat.

 

[oldude]

I hesitate to start yet another Baylor pregame thread, but this one (I promise) has a different and narrower focus -- specifically, what can be learned from re-watching last year's game in Waco and looking at the box score of that game. I did both of those things this afternoon, and here is what I came up with:

1. The importance of Kalani Brown's presence last year (and thus of her absence this year) cannot be overstated. She had 22 points and 17 rebounds in last year's game, and the announcers mentioned that it was only her second double-double in last year's season. She made a number of long 2-point jump shots from around the top of the key, which UConn had decided to concede to her (very sensibly). UConn also allowed Lauren Cox to have any shot she wanted from even mid-range distance, and that bet paid off -- Lauren was only 3-for-12 overall and 0-for-5 from 3-point range. The high-low game between Brown and Cox was very difficult to stop, even with UConn keeping three defenders low for the entire game. None of that kind of action will be available when the teams meet this week, unless Baylor goes to their bench for a "twin tower" to match with Cox. I doubt that they will do that very much.
2. Quite surprising to me was the fact that Baylor had no great rebounding advantage in last year's game, when their size advantage over UConn was much greater than it will be in this week's game. Baylor had 46 total rebounds (including 13 offensive boards), compared to UConn's 43 rebounds (15 offensive). It's true that Pheesa and Lou had 11 rebounds each, a total which Liv and Megan will be challenged to match. Watching the game, it did not appear to me that UConn was unduly challenged in clearing their defensive boards -- Baylor took a lot of shots with no offensive rebounders anywhere near the basket. Crystal was able to get 6 rebounds and Christyn got 3, despite being the Lilliputians on the floor. That suggests to me that in this year's game (with no one like Brown on the floor), UConn should be able to hold its own on the boards at both ends of the court.
3. Juicy Landrum made 3 early 3-point shots before UConn started face-guarding her, even using Mikayla Coombs for that purpose to give Christyn a rest from that duty. Mikayla was inconsistent in that role and allowed Landrum to get free for a few more 2-point scores. UConn even used a box-and-one against Landrum at one point in the first half. I think there is zero chance that Landrum will be allowed any significant space for jump shots in Thursday's game (bearing in mind, once again, that there is no presence like Brown on the floor demanding defensive focus).
4. The big reason that Baylor won last year is that UConn shot 29% for the game (despite a respectable 11-for-32 from 3-point range), and UConn got destroyed in the category of scoring in the paint (52-10 in favor of Baylor). It is safe to assume that Baylor will score significantly more than UConn in the paint on Thursday night, but hopefully the margin won't be 42 points. The reasons for UConn's low shooting percentage appeared to be: (a) Baylor played really good defense, so that UConn's normal maneuvers on offense did not result in open shots; (b) UConn got only 3 points off turnovers and zero fast break points, indicating that UConn was unable to speed up the pace and get out of the half-court grind; and (c) all UConn shooters missed a lot of jump shots that they normally make, and that were open. In interviews during the game, Kim said that Baylor was playing the best defense it was capable of playing, and Geno said that UConn's open shots did not come from the offense but rather from opportunistic play. I'm sure both of those are reasons for the low shooting percentage.
5. And (of interest to those who harp on UConn's lack of depth), Baylor's bench did indeed outscore UConn's bench 12-0, but all 12 points came from Nalyssa Smith, who is a starter this year. Kim basically used a rotation of 6 players. Geno used 8 players (Olivia, Batouly, and Coombs all got minutes, and none of them was particularly effective). This year, it appears that Kim is not relying on her bench for any significant scoring. I think it is quite possible that Aubrey and Anna will outscore Baylor's bench in Thursday's game.

I think the summary of these points is that (even beyond the inherent home court advantage), UConn should be in a comparatively better position to win this year's game than they were for last year's. The keys are that Geno must figure out how to stop Baylor from slowing the pace and preventing UConn fast breaks, the jump shooters must hit their normal percentages from both 2 and 3-point range, and the Baylor advantage in scoring in the paint must be reduced even if it cannot be eliminated.

Nice analysis. One other point on last year’s game deserves mention. UConn packed in their defense and frequently doubled Brown in the low post. That left various Baylor players wide open for easy mid-range jump shots. Even worse, when Brown was doubled in the low post the backside was wide open for easy cuts or weak side rebounds, often resulting in an uncontested Baylor layup. That is how Smith got a lot of her points.

So if Liv can reasonably defend Cox 1 on 1 without getting into foul trouble, that changes everything for Baylor on offense.

 

[Triad]

I think we had two AAs on last years team who are elsewhere at the moment. A small difference.

Those to AA's "small difference"?? Hardly, they amounted to most of the scoring of that team and significant rebounding. You can't replace 2 AA's with two good Freshmen and believe it won't hurt.
Now that they are "elsewhere" all they can do is watch. Uconn can only play those now on the roster, big difference!!

 

[Triad]

Nice analysis. One other point on last year’s game deserves mention. UConn packed in their defense and frequently doubled Brown in the low post. That left various Baylor players wide open for easy mid-range jump shots. Even worse, when Brown was doubled in the low post the backside was wide open for easy cuts or weak side rebounds, often resulting in an uncontested Baylor layup. That is how Smith got a lot of her points.

So if Liv can reasonably defend Cox 1 on 1 without getting into foul trouble, that changes everything for Baylor on offense.
IT all comes down to this!!
So, did Baylor win that game with "mid range shots"? When a team is deadly inside and outside the coach has to pick his poison and at times all he/she can do is keep the score reasonable.
Will Geno "pack it in" again or play them straight up, maybe starting with a zone? At some point, I'd try Aubrey or Irwin on Cox Uconn can afford her fouls. I may even try the a-typical ONO defense, beat up Cox if she is hurting UCONN on either end. On offense I'd play the standard Uconn offense, except play ONO near the foul line and tell her NOt TO DRIBBLE.

 

[Triad]

From the FWIW department... Last Year UCONN vs Baylor was played on Jan 3rd. This was UCONN's first game since Dec 22 and they went on holiday break. And, as we may recall, UCONN had a couple of closer than expected games right before the break at OK and CAL. For Baylor, they had a game on Dec 31 vs a "cupcake"....and as expected it was a blow out....but more importantly, it gave them a "game scenario" to work off some of the holiday calories, hangover and rust. UCONN had no such "warm up game"...and had to travel to Baylor soon after returning from break thus shortening their practice time. This time, both teams have had some games since the break and both played well...but this time Baylor has to travel to the cold Northeast.

Again...just sayin'... and FWIW.

Typically the kids are "rusty" after the break. They don't play their A game. Good catch.

 

[JoePgh]

Those to AA's "small difference"?? Hardly, they amounted to most of the scoring of that team and significant rebounding. You can't replace 2 AA's with two good Freshmen and believe it won't hurt.
Now that they are "elsewhere" all they can do is watch. Uconn can only play those now on the roster, big difference!!

Aren't you ignoring the fact that Baylor also lost key players to graduation, most notably Kalani Brown? She had a mere 22 and 17 in last year's game, and was the fulcrum of their offense.

 

[oldude]

Aren't you ignoring the fact that Baylor also lost key players to graduation, most notably Kalani Brown? She had a mere 22 and 17 in last year's game, and was the fulcrum of their offense.

Also lost NCAA tournament MOP Chloe Jackson.

 

[Centerstream]

As I posted earlier, apples vs. oranges BUT most here are worried about Lauren's offensive impact on Liv. I submit - how about Cox defending the MUCH improved Liv????

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Cold?? Hartford is supposed to be 61 degrees later this week(53 in Waco).

As @meyers7 mentioned...it will be cold in CT on Wednesday and Thursday... The current forecast is Hi of 37 Wednesday and 30 on Thursday... and SNOW on the ground (I think)...
SO, in this regard, Advantage...UCONN

 

[Carnac]

I hesitate to start yet another Baylor pregame thread, but this one (I promise) has a different and narrower focus -- specifically, what can be learned from re-watching last year's game in Waco and looking at the box score of that game. I did both of those things this afternoon, and here is what I came up with:

1. The importance of Kalani Brown's presence last year (and thus of her absence this year) cannot be overstated. She had 22 points and 17 rebounds in last year's game, and the announcers mentioned that it was only her second double-double in last year's season. She made a number of long 2-point jump shots from around the top of the key, which UConn had decided to concede to her (very sensibly). UConn also allowed Lauren Cox to have any shot she wanted from even mid-range distance, and that bet paid off -- Lauren was only 3-for-12 overall and 0-for-5 from 3-point range. The high-low game between Brown and Cox was very difficult to stop, even with UConn keeping three defenders low for the entire game. None of that kind of action will be available when the teams meet this week, unless Baylor goes to their bench for a "twin tower" to match with Cox. I doubt that they will do that very much.
2. Quite surprising to me was the fact that Baylor had no great rebounding advantage in last year's game, when their size advantage over UConn was much greater than it will be in this week's game. Baylor had 46 total rebounds (including 13 offensive boards), compared to UConn's 43 rebounds (15 offensive). It's true that Pheesa and Lou had 11 rebounds each, a total which Liv and Megan will be challenged to match. Watching the game, it did not appear to me that UConn was unduly challenged in clearing their defensive boards -- Baylor took a lot of shots with no offensive rebounders anywhere near the basket. Crystal was able to get 6 rebounds and Christyn got 3, despite being the Lilliputians on the floor. That suggests to me that in this year's game (with no one like Brown on the floor), UConn should be able to hold its own on the boards at both ends of the court.
3. Juicy Landrum made 3 early 3-point shots before UConn started face-guarding her, even using Mikayla Coombs for that purpose to give Christyn a rest from that duty. Mikayla was inconsistent in that role and allowed Landrum to get free for a few more 2-point scores. UConn even used a box-and-one against Landrum at one point in the first half. I think there is zero chance that Landrum will be allowed any significant space for jump shots in Thursday's game (bearing in mind, once again, that there is no presence like Brown on the floor demanding defensive focus).
4. The big reason that Baylor won last year is that UConn shot 29% for the game (despite a respectable 11-for-32 from 3-point range), and UConn got destroyed in the category of scoring in the paint (52-10 in favor of Baylor). It is safe to assume that Baylor will score significantly more than UConn in the paint on Thursday night, but hopefully the margin won't be 42 points. The reasons for UConn's low shooting percentage appeared to be: (a) Baylor played really good defense, so that UConn's normal maneuvers on offense did not result in open shots; (b) UConn got only 3 points off turnovers and zero fast break points, indicating that UConn was unable to speed up the pace and get out of the half-court grind; and (c) all UConn shooters missed a lot of jump shots that they normally make, and that were open. In interviews during the game, Kim said that Baylor was playing the best defense it was capable of playing, and Geno said that UConn's open shots did not come from the offense but rather from opportunistic play. I'm sure both of those are reasons for the low shooting percentage.
5. And (of interest to those who harp on UConn's lack of depth), Baylor's bench did indeed outscore UConn's bench 12-0, but all 12 points came from Nalyssa Smith, who is a starter this year. Kim basically used a rotation of 6 players. Geno used 8 players (Olivia, Batouly, and Coombs all got minutes, and none of them was particularly effective). This year, it appears that Kim is not relying on her bench for any significant scoring. I think it is quite possible that Aubrey and Anna will outscore Baylor's bench in Thursday's game.

I think the summary of these points is that (even beyond the inherent home court advantage), UConn should be in a comparatively better position to win this year's game than they were for last year's. The keys are that Geno must figure out how to stop Baylor from slowing the pace and preventing UConn fast breaks, the jump shooters must hit their normal percentages from both 2 and 3-point range, and the Baylor advantage in scoring in the paint must be reduced even if it cannot be eliminated.

Very different teams this year.

Last year KLS and Collier was the focal point of everything for UCONN. Walker wasnt nearly as good as she is now, and Williams was an inconsistent freshman. The biggest difference IMO is that you have a big presence inside defensively, and a more athletic and aggressive Megan Walker who brings a tougher dimension to matchup with for Baylor than Collier or KLS. My guess is Richard's face guards her. That's the matchup to watch IMO. UCONN needs Williams to have a big night and for Dangerfield to not shy away from taking shots and being aggressive. ONO cant get into foul trouble and needs to do well on the glass. Offensively I dont expect a lot from her going up against Cox. I dont see much production from Irwin/whoever is the 5th player out there. Any added buckets or big plays will help a lot. To Irwin's credit, she seems to understand her role quite well in that she doesnt try to do too much but doesnt detract from the team either.

For Baylor, they also look immensely different without Brown, no Jackson and Lauren Cox who doesnt look 100%. The offense this year for Baylor is a lot less organized IMO. There isnt a clear number 1 option right now, and from the games I've seen with Cox, they dont appear to be funneling the offense through her in the same manner they did a year ago. Cox is good but not great around the rim and her midrange is inconsistent. Last year she had an atrocious offensive game vs UCONN and missed everything from midrange. She struggled shooting against OU the other day. Theyll need her to score well or impact the game at a high level offensively come Thursday. They dont win without the ball going through her.

Egbo has been a brightspot but she is nowhere close to being as good as Brown was offensively. Brown was taller, much stronger and much better at sealing her defender down low and better at catching entry passes, not to mention being a better finisher around the basket. Not trying to tear her down, but I think she struggles going up a bigger and more athletic defender than the cupcakes Baylor has played. She played horribly against Boston earlier this year. She'll come off the bench and might get limited minutes IMO if she doesnt produce early. Really good running the floor though if it is fast paced. Any production from her is a big plus IMO.

Smith is improved this year after a great freshman season, but again, she isnt a big low post like Brown was. She's more of a slasher and does well in the midrange and around the rim but doesnt overpower anyone. I think someone like Walker can effectively guard her. Whether she does or not will be a big story. Smith needs to attack the glass and get some buckets for Baylor.

I think Degrate could be a factor this game with her sheer size too, especially if Egbo is ineffective. Degrate has looked good against underwhelming competition, but i could see her being a spark plug and getting a couple of buckets inside if Baylor is struggling.

The backcourt may make or break Baylor. Richards is excellent defensively and usually a strong decision maker. And added offense from her will be great but not expected. Landrum is capable of lighting teams up but isnt very aggressive at seeking out her shot. She needs to hunt shots harder than she normally does. And then lastly there's Te'a Cooper who has more of a scorer's personality than Jackson did last year. Te'a's decision making was quite poor vs SC and she isnt the most efficient player. If she plays too much Te'a ball, Baylor is cooked. If she focuses on getting the ball to the right players I think they have the edge.

Lastly, crowd factor is a HUGE edge for UCONN. They havent lost at home in 7 years and will have a big crowd on Thursday. I think UCONN has the edge going into it. Xfactor for UCONN offensively is Walker, defensively it is ONO. Xfactor for Baylor offensively is Cooper, defensively it's Richards. I think this is the most amped I've been for a matchup so far this season where we really havent seen many heavy hitters go to battle.

Excellent detailed analysis, thanks.

 

[Carnac]

From the FWIW department... Last Year UCONN vs Baylor was played on Jan 3rd. This was UCONN's first game since Dec 22 and they went on holiday break. And, as we may recall, UCONN had a couple of closer than expected games right before the break at OK and CAL. For Baylor, they had a game on Dec 31 vs a "cupcake"....and as expected it was a blow out....but more importantly, it gave them a "game scenario" to work off some of the holiday calories, hangover and rust. UCONN had no such "warm up game"...and had to travel to Baylor soon after returning from break thus shortening their practice time. This time, both teams have had some games since the break and both played well...but this time Baylor has to travel to the cold Northeast.

Again...just sayin'... and FWIW.

Both of your points were factors I believe that greatly aided in Baylor’s win. Especially UConn not having a game coming back from the holiday break to brush off the rust as Baylor did. That was very smart on Kim’s part. Geno should have done the same.

Note how rusty the team was coming off the break this year. That should always be factored in your schedule. If UConn has a cupcake on their OOC schedule, being the first game coming back from the break is the only way they can help the team.

Cupcakes generally don’t benefit UConn in any way. That would be the first game I would schedule each year, putting the weakest team on that year’s schedule as the first game after the break.

 

[Roger G]

I hesitate to start yet another Baylor pregame thread, but this one (I promise) has a different and narrower focus -- specifically, what can be learned from re-watching last year's game in Waco and looking at the box score of that game. I did both of those things this afternoon, and here is what I came up with:

1. The importance of Kalani Brown's presence last year (and thus of her absence this year) cannot be overstated. She had 22 points and 17 rebounds in last year's game, and the announcers mentioned that it was only her second double-double in last year's season. She made a number of long 2-point jump shots from around the top of the key, which UConn had decided to concede to her (very sensibly). UConn also allowed Lauren Cox to have any shot she wanted from even mid-range distance, and that bet paid off -- Lauren was only 3-for-12 overall and 0-for-5 from 3-point range. The high-low game between Brown and Cox was very difficult to stop, even with UConn keeping three defenders low for the entire game. None of that kind of action will be available when the teams meet this week, unless Baylor goes to their bench for a "twin tower" to match with Cox. I doubt that they will do that very much.
2. Quite surprising to me was the fact that Baylor had no great rebounding advantage in last year's game, when their size advantage over UConn was much greater than it will be in this week's game. Baylor had 46 total rebounds (including 13 offensive boards), compared to UConn's 43 rebounds (15 offensive). It's true that Pheesa and Lou had 11 rebounds each, a total which Liv and Megan will be challenged to match. Watching the game, it did not appear to me that UConn was unduly challenged in clearing their defensive boards -- Baylor took a lot of shots with no offensive rebounders anywhere near the basket. Crystal was able to get 6 rebounds and Christyn got 3, despite being the Lilliputians on the floor. That suggests to me that in this year's game (with no one like Brown on the floor), UConn should be able to hold its own on the boards at both ends of the court.
3. Juicy Landrum made 3 early 3-point shots before UConn started face-guarding her, even using Mikayla Coombs for that purpose to give Christyn a rest from that duty. Mikayla was inconsistent in that role and allowed Landrum to get free for a few more 2-point scores. UConn even used a box-and-one against Landrum at one point in the first half. I think there is zero chance that Landrum will be allowed any significant space for jump shots in Thursday's game (bearing in mind, once again, that there is no presence like Brown on the floor demanding defensive focus).
4. The big reason that Baylor won last year is that UConn shot 29% for the game (despite a respectable 11-for-32 from 3-point range), and UConn got destroyed in the category of scoring in the paint (52-10 in favor of Baylor). It is safe to assume that Baylor will score significantly more than UConn in the paint on Thursday night, but hopefully the margin won't be 42 points. The reasons for UConn's low shooting percentage appeared to be: (a) Baylor played really good defense, so that UConn's normal maneuvers on offense did not result in open shots; (b) UConn got only 3 points off turnovers and zero fast break points, indicating that UConn was unable to speed up the pace and get out of the half-court grind; and (c) all UConn shooters missed a lot of jump shots that they normally make, and that were open. In interviews during the game, Kim said that Baylor was playing the best defense it was capable of playing, and Geno said that UConn's open shots did not come from the offense but rather from opportunistic play. I'm sure both of those are reasons for the low shooting percentage.
5. And (of interest to those who harp on UConn's lack of depth), Baylor's bench did indeed outscore UConn's bench 12-0, but all 12 points came from Nalyssa Smith, who is a starter this year. Kim basically used a rotation of 6 players. Geno used 8 players (Olivia, Batouly, and Coombs all got minutes, and none of them was particularly effective). This year, it appears that Kim is not relying on her bench for any significant scoring. I think it is quite possible that Aubrey and Anna will outscore Baylor's bench in Thursday's game.

I think the summary of these points is that (even beyond the inherent home court advantage), UConn should be in a comparatively better position to win this year's game than they were for last year's. The keys are that Geno must figure out how to stop Baylor from slowing the pace and preventing UConn fast breaks, the jump shooters must hit their normal percentages from both 2 and 3-point range, and the Baylor advantage in scoring in the paint must be reduced even if it cannot be eliminated.

One question: why do you say that it is safe to say that Baylor will score more points inside than UConn. No Kalani Brown for them this year and Ono is much better than she was last year. What is your rationale there?

 

[Carnac]

One question: why do you say that it is safe to say that Baylor will score more points inside than UConn. No Kalani Brown for them this year and Ono is much better than she was last year. What is your rationale there?

Roger, great minds think alike. I was going to ask the same thing!!

 

[meyers7]

As @meyers7 mentioned...it will be cold in CT on Wednesday and Thursday... The current forecast is Hi of 37 Wednesday and 30 on Thursday... and SNOW on the ground (I think)...
SO, in this regard, Advantage...UCONN

I'd prefer it nice and warm. 1) because I prefer nice and warm but 2) recruits.

 

[WNBA 09]

All these threads on Baylor makes fear seem real on UCONNS end. All the points used to validate why Baylor is not as good this year versus last applies to UCONN as well . If anything UCONN lost more contribution from last years team to this years than baylor .

 

[Monte]

As @meyers7 mentioned...it will be cold in CT on Wednesday and Thursday... The current forecast is Hi of 37 Wednesday and 30 on Thursday... and SNOW on the ground (I think)...
SO, in this regard, Advantage...UCONN

I think it is only fair that someone advise Baylor to wear: coats, hats, gloves, scarves, amd maybe boots.

 

[bballnut90]

All these threads on Baylor makes fear seem real on UCONNS end. All the points used to validate why Baylor is not as good this year versus last applies to UCONN as well . If anything UCONN lost more contribution from last years team to this years than baylor .

Pretty comparable IMO when you factor in Cox not being 100%. I think Huskies are arguably stronger this year because their go to player is more capable with the ball in her hands than Collier or KLS were. Guessing itll be a prettier offensive game than last year's was.

 

[JoePgh]

One question: why do you say that it is safe to say that Baylor will score more points inside than UConn. No Kalani Brown for them this year and Ono is much better than she was last year. What is your rationale there?

The factors that you mention are significant but not enough to reverse a 52-10 scoring deficit in the paint. Cox, Richards, and Smith are all much more experienced than Olivia, Kyla, and Anna. Megan will be away from the basket a lot, especially on offense, so she won't be a major factor in paint scoring.

But UConn doesn't have to outscore Baylor in the paint; it just has to keep the point deficit there from getting out of hand. If the deficit in the paint is 10 or less, UConn should win with superior outside shooting.