Number 4 in the Coaches Poll

[bballnut90]

Who is left on Maryland and Louisville schedule that realistically could beat them? And do we want Ft. Wayne because we don’t think we can beat South Carolina, Oregon or Baylor? Seems a chicken poop approach.

Louisville faces a good Virginia Tech team. Maryland is playing a good Purdue team today too. Both are long shots IMO but realistically both could lose in their conference tournaments. And playing in Fort Wayne and avoiding the big 3 is massive. All the regionals will basically be home games for the Big 3, so if you get Fort Wayne you avoid playing them on the road and play them at the Final Four which keeps the FF streak alive and realistically you have a much better chance to win on a neutral court.

 

[triaddukefan]

Who is left on Maryland and Louisville schedule that realistically could beat them? And do we want Ft. Wayne because we don’t think we can beat South Carolina, Oregon or Baylor? Seems a chicken poop approach.

There is one potential roadblock left for Louisville.... I aint gonna mention them by name though

 

[HopJim]

I think it's going to take more than just running the table, we'll have to do it convincingly and pass the eye test. Just scraping by, or dominating one quarter out of four isn't likely to serve us very much in the committee's eyes.

Hope the Huskies have some control over their own destiny but per other comments, the teams UConn is about to play unfortunately have poor "brand recognition," i.e. UConn could win by 50 and its unlikely it will materially help their case. Our best bet is for some of the higher ranked teams to lose and say a few prayers. In any case, we will have to play at least one or more of the top teams at some point so while an interesting conversation, where we are ranked unlikely to matter.

 

[Carnac]

As an offensively challenged team, the likelihood of them getting and staying hot for the 4 games they would have to win is virtually nil. Of all the teams other than Oregon you could pick, the Sun Devils? I was just looking at how the teams in the upper half of the conference have done against each other, ASU is 2-6 this year. They had one good weekend.

I hear you. That’s all it takes is one good weekend. I would love for UConn to have one good weekend during the final four. Geno would have two more NC’s if he (they) could have had one good weekend the last two years.

 

[Carnac]

As an offensively challenged team, the likelihood of them getting and staying hot for the 4 games they would have to win is virtually nil. Of all the teams other than Oregon you could pick, the Sun Devils? I was just looking at how the teams in the upper half of the conference have done against each other, ASU is 2-6 this year. They had one good weekend.

Oregon State was a dark horse couple of years ago that no one saw coming. Stranger things have happened late in the tournament. Remember the year that UConn was the only 1 seed to make the FF? You never know. Bottom line, I like Oregon and Baylor to play for the championship.

 

[WestCoast]

That was last year. That's not the Stanford team that will take the floor next weekend in Las Vegas. They just played last night. Oregon handled them pretty good. I like Oregon to win the Pac 12 tournament this year (unless Arizona State gets hot). Your objection will be taken under advisement. We'll find out next weekend.

The amazing Carnac is considering Arizona State as his #2 pick to win the PAC-12 Tournament? To do so from the #5 seed, ASU would need to beat Cal, Arizona, Stanford/UCLA/Oregon State, and Oregon on four consecutive nights in Vegas. Not gonna happen...but if it does, the legend of Carnac will grow to epic heights.

 

[Martin]

Refresh my memory...Who is Nuff?

 

[nwhoopfan]

Oregon State was a dark horse couple of years ago that no one saw coming. Stranger things have happened late in the tournament. Remember the year that UConn was the only 1 seed to make the FF? You never know. Bottom line, I like Oregon and Baylor to play for the championship.

Now you're switching it up on me and talking about the NCAA Tourney. The year OSU made a Final 4, Washington was the true dark horse that came from nowhere.

Anyway, as far as conference tourneys go certainly anything can happen, but I don't like ASU's chances. I looked at the history of the P12. ASU won the inaugural year in '02 and was the runner up in '05 and '07. CTT hasn't made it to the last game in well over a decade. History isn't on her side. For the most part it's been Stanford's party, they've won 13 out of 18. Including 3 of the last 6, and they weren't regular season champ in any of those years.

 

[ocoandasoc]

They're 1 behind in Massey/RPI. They're another 3 loss team with their worst loss being DePaul. They would have quality wins over top 30 RPI Maryland (2x), Iowa, Duke, Indiana, Ohio State and Michigan 2x. My guess is they get the nod over UCONN if that pans out, but my guess is they drop another game.

Funny thing is, Northwestern should probably already have a #2 seed -- and so should Maryland since the two have almost identical records.

Northwestern will almost certainly be the #1 seed in the Big Ten Tourney when it goes to the third tie-breaker. So Maryland will probably have to beat Iowa and Northwestern to win the title, and they lost to both of these teams on the road earlier in the season -- to Northwester by a whopping 23 points. (Of course they beat both of these teams at home, so who knows. And you can't rule Indiana out.)

Both Maryland and Northwestern split their series with Iowa. Maryland lost to NC State and South Carolina by 7 and 10 points respectively. Northwestern lost to DePaul by 2 points. Both teams beat Indiana for their only other Top 25 win. In the convoluted way of figuring these things, Northwestern actually has the best win of the two teams, because Maryland is higher rated.

Arguably, Maryland is only higher rated because they started off as #4 in the pre-season poll while Northwestern was not even among the 18 teams in the "also receiving votes" category.

Best case for UConn might be to have Iowa beat Maryland in the Big Ten semis and then beat Northwestern for the conference championship, since that would not bring a 5-loss Iowa team up to a #1 seed. (Unless of course they were really looking to screw the Huskies.

There's also an outside chance that Maryland loses to Minnesota on Sunday.

 

[mbr33ct]

Beware the Ides of March, come selection Monday UConn once again will find themselves on the #2 line. Last year UConn was ranked #2 in both polls, with two AA's and with a better team than current version, how did that work out for UConn?

 

[Carnac]

The amazing Carnac is considering Arizona State as his #2 pick to win the PAC-12 Tournament? To do so from the #5 seed, ASU would need to beat Cal, Arizona, Stanford/UCLA/Oregon State, and Oregon on four consecutive nights in Vegas. Not gonna happen...but if it does, the legend of Carnac will grow to epic heights.

No I'm not!! I'm merely SUGGESTING that ASU could be "a nasty piece of business", and be that dark horse that screws up everything for the Cardinal and the Ducks. Oregon has only lost 2 games all year. One to LVille, and one to ASU. Oregon got revenge for that loss to ASU on Feb 9 with a resounding 79-48 blowout.

Many have tried, but LVille and ASU remain the only teams to beat the Ducks. THAT is my only reason for suggesting the Sun Devils MIGHT be able to do it again. Before you do something "again", you have to do it the first time. Is it possible, yes. Is it probable, no!!

I wouldn't look past Stanford or UCLA who are 2nd and 3rd in the conference rankings. Anybody can get "hot and lucky" for 2 days. You know as well as I do that "crap happens". The Boneyard system would not let me use the "s" word here. Teams can get upset (like UConn has the last two years in the final 4). I agree with your take on ASU, not going to happen.

 

[AmeriConn]

There is one potential roadblock left for Louisville.... I aint gonna mention them by name though View attachment 51222View attachment 51222

BC or VT?

 

[bballnut90]

Funny thing is, Northwestern should probably already have a #2 seed -- and so should Maryland since the two have almost identical records.

Northwestern will almost certainly be the #1 seed in the Big Ten Tourney when it goes to the third tie-breaker. So Maryland will probably have to beat Iowa and Northwestern to win the title, and they lost to both of these teams on the road earlier in the season -- to Northwester by a whopping 23 points. (Of course they beat both of these teams at home, so who knows. And you can't rule Indiana out.)

Both Maryland and Northwestern split their series with Iowa. Maryland lost to NC State and South Carolina by 7 and 10 points respectively. Northwestern lost to DePaul by 2 points. Both teams beat Indiana for their only other Top 25 win. In the convoluted way of figuring these things, Northwestern actually has the best win of the two teams, because Maryland is higher rated.

Arguably, Maryland is only higher rated because they started off as #4 in the pre-season poll while Northwestern was not even among the 18 teams in the "also receiving votes" category.

Best case for UConn might be to have Iowa beat Maryland in the Big Ten semis and then beat Northwestern for the conference championship, since that would not bring a 5-loss Iowa team up to a #1 seed. (Unless of course they were really looking to screw the Huskies.

There's also an outside chance that Maryland loses to Minnesota on Sunday.

Maryland has the tie breaker over NW since they went 1-1 against Iowa while NW lost their only match up this year. The win over Iowa is probably MD's biggest difference maker at this point. But I agree, Iowa winning the Big Ten tourney puts UCONN in a great spot to nab a FW.

 

[donalddoowop]

Someone is going to be unhappy. Every school but UNC, Arizona, and Kansas men think the NCAA is out to get them

The Duke men should be included.