Not much time to savor it

[jplotinus]

For as much energy, attitude and physical exertion as had to be poured out to soundly beat ND, the time to enjoy is almost over. Now, the focus has to change in a hurry to a team that has been literally and figuratively slaying giants lately, after a good, but not domineering season.

UCONN should beat Louisville by a comfortable margin, but a let down after the ND showdown might be hard to avoid. I think UCONN might actually look a bit sluggish early on in the championship game and might fall behind in the first several minutes. However, I also expect they will kick into their top gear early enough to build a 10 point lead by halftime and bring home 8.

Can't wait to see pre-game analysis and predictions! ;-p

Despite probable statistical differences favoring Uconn over Louisville, one thing stands out:

Louisville beat Baylor when it mattered, UCONN did not.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Louisville beat Baylor when it mattered, UCONN did not.

Or, phrased differently, UConn will be playing when it matters, Baylor will not.

 

[Icebear]

I really wanted the path to the title to go through both ND and Baylor. Excise all the ghosts. As it is at least we play the team that beat Baylor rather than Cal. Although if the path had been Maryland, Kentucky, ND and Baylor it would have been among the great tournament runs.

Gotta take care of business Tuesday night; no time for coulda, woulda, shoulda.

 

[Bestiarius]

It's really, really quiet over at The Summitt. They must be busy composing a letter to Geno wishing him and the team good luck on Tuesday. No, I doubt there will be a let down. There is still plenty of motivation to shut up a certain fan base. A victory Tuesday will speak VOLumes.

 

[alexrgct]

Louisville was able to beat Baylor for three reasons:

1. Turned the game chippy and ugly. The Cards will absolutely try to do that against UConn as well.
2. Made a ridiculous number of three-pointers. This could, of course, happen again, though it's highly unlikely.
3. Took Griner out of the game. This is where UConn is a different sort of animal. Griner-Sims is an extraordinary 1-2 punch, but UConn has a number of weapons capable of playing at an all-american level.

UConn needs to play poised through the scrappiness, go on their characteristic runs, and play characteristic defense. If they do so, they SHOULD be able to outscore Louisville. Although it would be natural to feel that they've overcome the biggest hurdles, this team is going to be focused. You've got upperclassmen leadership and a coach with experience getting to and winning at this stage.

 

[msf22b]

I see our defense frustrating them early resulting in a 15-point half-time lead

 

[Forty_four]

I think Louisville will be prone to fouling, has been their m. o. in the tournment. Hammon, Shoni and Smith, all key cogs have experienced foul trouble and I expect the same against a very versatial Uconn team that has multiple scoring weapons and will force the Cards to play man to man, which I believe will lead them into foul trouble or they will play a zone and we will rain 3's on them.

 

[storrsroars]

Louisville was able to beat Baylor for three reasons:

1. Turned the game chippy and ugly. The Cards will absolutely try to do that against UConn as well.
2. Made a ridiculous number of three-pointers. This could, of course, happen again, though it's highly unlikely.
3. Took Griner out of the game. This is where UConn is a different sort of animal. Griner-Sims is an extraordinary 1-2 punch, but UConn has a number of weapons capable of playing at an all-american level.

UConn needs to play poised through the scrappiness, go on their characteristic runs, and play characteristic defense. If they do so, they SHOULD be able to outscore Louisville. Although it would be natural to feel that they've overcome the biggest hurdles, this team is going to be focused. You've got upperclassmen leadership and a coach with experience getting to and winning at this stage.

1. Is what I'd expect Walz to do. Geno should be concentrating on composure and the full 40 minutes.
2. UConn perimeter D is better. You could count clean looks by ND last night on one hand.
3. When Dolson is in, UConn will have two tall trees. Ville doesn't have the weapons to deal with that, except to try to get our 4-5s in foul trouble. I think the key is to ensure Breanna doesn't get frustrated by the chippiness. Dolson will likely see reduced minutes with her injuries, but those should be effective.

 

[DobbsRover2]

The Cardinals shot 21% from beyond the arc in that one long-ago previous game against the Huskies, and Dolson shot 8 of 11. The big difference from now is obviously that Banks played in the January game at XL and Stewart did not.

But yeah, hit them early and build a comfortable lead as in 2009 and you probably don't have to worry about Louisville mounting a strong attack on UConn's D like they did with Cal.

 

[VAMike23]

No team in the tourney--even Baylor had they survived to the final--can match up with the April 2013 version of Breanna Stewart. Big advantage to UCONN there, obviously. The great thing about adding an emergent Stewart is Stef can play within herself and not have to push. She can be there to clean up rebounds, some putbacks, take a midrange J or two, and keep the D honest, punishing them as needed.

I still expect the Sisters Schimmel to bring some thunder and make it interesting. Shonni has real moxie and she's not going down w/o a fight. We need to key on Slaughter and make sure she doesn't get off any early 3's, because belief is Louisville's #1 weapon at this point. High pressure perimeter D will be what wins this game for us. With Stewie inside we can live with whatever points they do get in the paint. It won't be a ton because she will block or alter a lot of shots.

I can see Tuck getting a little more time and Stef slightly less in this game (not a lot less, slightly less) so that we can extend pressure more consisently and switch on screens outside. Morgan has quick feet and is very solid when she gets pulled out to the perimeter. That gives us an extra body that can be effective inside and out.

 

[nutmegger]

Geno has never lost a final game (7-0).

 

[Icebear]

Geno has never lost a final game (7-0).

Powerful mojo.

 

[jplotinus]

Geno has never lost a final game (7-0).

...and I don't think he'll lose this one either. Still, I wouldn't want to be understood as tempting fate.

Just cautious, I guess :-0

 

[SWHuskyFan]

http://espn.go.com/ncw/recap?gameId=330150041

ESPN notes from our first game with UL.

Bria had a good game but Breanna didn't play at all. She is our secret weapon! We also apparently have a 12 game win streak against them. I wonder if we'll hear about that as much as we've had to endure references to our recent record vs ND?