I don't think you know as much as you think you do. Predicting no expansion was hardly difficult.
After the circus of the past 90 days and the no vote, I have come to the opposite conclusion. UT and OU are not serious about sticking around past the expiration of the GOR. They probably would like too, but I think they were hit over the head by the tv partners with the realities of cable $$ going forward. If UT and OU were serious about staying they would have picked two or four schools, cut a deal with the ESPN / Fox to pay the new schools a lesser amount and let the tv cos keep the difference as a good will gesture. They also would have selected schools based largely on media value with tv input to again help the tv partners today and in 2023. They also would have pushed to extend the GOR either a couple years (symbolic gesture) or to match the ACC terms (true commitment).
Doing nothing makes the conference vulnerable, hardly a sign of long term commitment. And there is every reason to think big media, it this new time of shrinking cable boxes, wouldn't prefer to trim the NCAA football hierarchy to four power confs.