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Non-Key Tweets

All that's needed to trigger a challenge to a GOR is TV contract negotiations. Then it's just a cost/benefit analysis to see if the increase in revenue offsets the costs of the inevitable legal challenge. History has shown that when offered more money in a new conference, the answer is always yes. The rest is just an accounting exercise.
 
billybud said:
I still think that we will not see a GOR challenged in the next ten years.
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If the XII does not expand and provide an eastern partner for WVU I think they are likely to challenge the GoR due to static money coming in from the XII and increasing travel costs.
 
Greg Flugaur
‏@flugempire http://www.elevenwarriors.com/colle...-deal-could-net-each-school-50-million-a-year … What most people don't realize is how much the BTN creates leverage for Delany in Tier 1 negotiations....as well as..

Greg Flugaur
‏@flugempire ...how the diversity of footprint creates even more leverage and flexibility for Delany in TV negotiations. For these reasons..and others...

Greg Flugaur
‏@flugempire ...the next Big 10 expansion will be out East again. RUT and UMD additions to the Big Ten were homeruns, not singles...or doubles.


Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · Dec 30
@azescobar1 Delany is making friends out East. Delany wants more Eastern Eyeballs. UCONN is a viable player in Big 10 eastern expansion

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · Dec 30
@azescobar1 UCONN can give the Big 10 marketable BTN content...content which will drive higher ratings on BTN...bigger TV ad buys.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · Dec 30
@azescobar1 Remember, Big Ten schools profit from bigger BTN ad buys....unlike 99% of other universities tier 3 individual contracts.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · Dec 30
@azescobar1 I do think UCONN needs the right partner for it to actually happen (VT) but I don't see expansion until 2019.
 
Why would VT leave? Assuming more money and research ties. They would not be on an island as MD, Rutgers and PSU are nearby (and hopefully us). Is there a reason for VT to stay in the ACC? Southern culture, gor???
 
Stinger92860 said:
Why would VT leave? Assuming more money and research ties. They would not be on an island as MD, Rutgers and PSU are nearby (and hopefully us). Is there a reason for VT to stay in the ACC? Southern culture, gor???
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$50M/yr vs. $25M/yr. That's some very serious stability and long-term protection. The B1G ain't going anywhere. You can't say that for the ACC or B12. One of those conferences will fall via the Big East route at some point.
 
So why doesn't VT leave now? It would seem that new content on BTN would give Delaney more leverage in negotiations.
 
Just saw this on my Yahoo page and then realized it was a Duke board. Any substance to this? Texas and Oregon are mentioned...
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2015/1/2/7480713/a-massive-ncaa-academic-fraud-scandal-uncovered
"This involves mostly junior college players and coaches across the country but mostly in the South and Southeast. Among the few coaches specifically implicated: Stan Heath, formerly at Southern Florida, and Isaiah Thomas, formerly of Florida Atlantic. Heath had no comment; Thomas denied it through a spokeswoman.
Among other schools implicated: Texas, Liberty, Morgan State, Oregon, and Xavier of Ohio."

edit: looks like the original article was from December 2014.
http://chronicle.com/article/Confessions-of-a-Fixer/150891/
 
billybud said:
I still think that we will not see a GOR challenged in the next ten years.
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The GOR is far from ironclad and even if it were, the result would be a monetary settlement (which, if it were to go to court would not be significant as there would be a replacement school and the only damages would be the loss in revenue by replacing a departing school with a new member).

There will be a challenge to some conference's GOR as soon as either the SEC or B1G decide it is time to add more members.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
The GOR is far from ironclad and even if it were, the result would be a monetary settlement (which, if it were to go to court would not be significant as there would be a replacement school and the only damages would be the loss in revenue by replacing a departing school with a new member).

There will be a challenge to some conference's GOR as soon as either the SEC or B1G decide it is time to add more members.
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Dooley said:
Don't know if this article has already been posted here, but either way, here's an interesting read on possibly breaking a GoR...

http://www.foxsports.com/college-fo...ge/myth-of-the-big-12s-grant-of-rights-010313
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I agree with you. In my opinion, GoRs are just another item to settle monetarily between the departing school and conference.

About the bolded sentence you wrote: damages from a departing school might be non-existent. In the article I linked a few days ago, the writer examines what challenging a GoR would entail. In it, they state that not in a single instance of a conference losing a school, did the conference's TV contract negotiate down. From the article:

"In 2003, the Big East is raided for two of its name brand schools, and a regionally significant school. The Big East added some lesser brands, and their media partners did not reduce their ongoing media deal. 2010, the Big 12 lost 2 schools in Colorado and Nebraska, did not replace those schools, and the Big 12 lost a significant amount of content (1/6th) in football and basketball. The Big 12's media partners did not reduce the payout on existing contracts but actually negotiated for more money on an expiring one. 2011, Texas A&M and Missouri left, the Big 12 replaced them with less valuable TV properties in TCU and WVU, and neither ESPN or FOX required a reduction in the payout to the Big 12. 2012, Maryland leaves the ACC for the Big 10, ACC replaces them with a less valuable media property. Not a single word is mentioned about a reduced payout for the ACC.

Networks, and one specifically, won't reduce the amount they pay to the conferences because it would violate their fiduciary duties to the conferences. Because one network (ESPN) has a hand in every league's media deal (except new Big East if it even exists) it can't in good faith pay one league more for raiding one league, then reducing its payout to league that was raided.

Because there is no evidence there would be a reduced payout to the league, the damages calculation is simple. The media deal for Conference A remains unchanged despite School X leaving, therefore there would be no damages for breach of grant of rights. The Big 12 grant of rights runs concurrently to media deals. So unless the networks change their strategy and go against precedent and start reducing the payouts to leagues, the only thing that binds these schools is money. Once the SEC starts its network there will be a new conference shuffle, and the Big 12 is still vulnerable."

Granted, this is all speculative. But it's not exactly wrong. Not one conference had their media deal cut from the network that holds their rights after a school or schools left. It's because of this that I personally think the GoR can be negotiated. So if Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas were to leave, they could use this as the backbone to their argument and settle with the B12 monetarily.
 
I really think that if Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas left, the Big 12 would fold shop, perhaps after it receives its due compensation. Some remaining schools might find a home in the P4 (OK State) and the rest in the G5.
 
My B12 value meter, independent of any potential CR pairings, would read something like:

1. Texas - the grand prize but won't leave the B12 until it has to because they rule the roost and being King of a conference's decision making, for now, is important (and more lucrative) to them.



2. OU - the obvious #2 and perfect pairing partner with Texas. May have to initiate leaving the B12 first.
3. KU - might be the next B12 domino to fall. Football isn't good right now but was not too long ago. Hoops is very good and markets are nice.


4. TCU (Dallas/Fort Worth market)
5. Baylor


6. Oklahoma State
7. WVU

8. Kansas St
9. Iowa St

10. Texas Tech
 
Gurleyman said:
They wouldn't double up on the same market. But some combination of Richmond, Dayton, St. Louis, Duquesne and St. Bonaventure would expand into a couple more major markets with similar private Catholic schools.

Or, they could take BC when the ACC kicks them out.
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Davidson is near Charlotte, NC. What do you mean by doubling up on same market?
 
Lock City Husky said:
Davidson is near Charlotte, NC. What do you mean by doubling up on same market?
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You're right - just had a random brain fart and mixed up Charlotte and Richmond. You know how those southern cities all look alike.
 
Tuxedo Yoda
‏@TuxedoYoda Reconfirmed. After OSU/Oregon & before National Signing Day, Big 12 will announce additions. Neither source will divulge names of schools.

Tuxedo Yoda
‏@TuxedoYoda @J_Rok4 likely additions are Cincinnati and UCF, but realignment is crazy.
 
I can understand Cincinnati and UCF. I will never understand Memphis (or any other AAC school for that matter). But yeah, I'll be p1ssed and will likely avoid this board for some time since I can only imagine that the extremist "drop football" crowd will only grow louder.
 
I know its been talked about ad nauseum on these boards, but I would still rather hold out for UConn -> B1G. I'm OK with righting the football ship in the AAC for the short term. Hopefully a B1G invite is 2-5 years away. I totally understand the B12 lifeboat argument, but I'm a gambling man, I guess.
 
History Geek said:
I know its been talked about ad nauseum on these boards, but I would still rather hold out for UConn -> B1G. I'm OK with righting the football ship in the AAC for the short term. Hopefully a B1G invite is 2-5 years away. I totally understand the B12 lifeboat argument, but I'm a gambling man, I guess.
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While I agree with this general sentiment, losing Cinci and UCF only turns up the heat in the dumpster fire known as the AAC. With each defection the life raft drifts further off in to the horizon.
 

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