NFL Win Totals - Over/Under

[Deepster]

Please list out your top 3 bets based on the over/under win totals listed below. I also included strength of schedule.

1) My best bet - Buffalo Over 11.5. They have the 23rd toughest schedule and the reigning MVP. I think the division will be tougher, but they're one of maybe 5 teams with a very good chance at a Super Bowl this year. I think they easily go over 11.5 wins.

2) New Orleans - Under 5.5. Even with one of the easiest schedules in the league, this team is going to be flat out awful and their QB room is a dumpster fire. I don't think they win 4 games.

3) NY Jets - Over 5.5. Call me a homer, but I'm one of the most pessimistic Jets fans you'll find and I think this team will be tough and disciplined. IF Fields can stay healthy and they execute the RPO and ground game, I can definitely see 7-8 wins.

 

[Husky25]

Under 8.5 for the Dallas Cowboys.

1st time head coach. Inexperienced offensive line, no one of note in the backfield, and 5th hardest schedule, though I don't put too much stock in that until about Week 9. SoS to begin the year is based on the previous year in a league where there is 40% YoY roster turnover.

That is the only other one I can say with any confidence, but since you asked for 3...

As a homer, I'd like to say Washington will shatter 9.5 wins, I think 11 is the ceiling. A complete dismantling of the 1-seed in the playoffs notwithstanding, they got somewhat lucky with injuries last year and won a handful of games on their final possession, including one on a Hail Mary at home that Chicago had no business losing. Many key contributors are a year older in a negative way and they have the oldest initial 53 roster in the league. While I think they make the Playoffs, 9-8 (and a betting loss) is just as likely as 11-6. Frankly, I'd stay away.

On the other hand, I might take a flyer on the Raiders winning over 6.5 games, particular if Geno stays healthy.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Houston Texans - Under. They are missing too much and the lines aren't good.

Patriots - Over. Defense will keep them in games and the schedule is easy.

Dallas - Under. Bad team, tough schedule.

Denver - Under. I just don't see them having more than 9 wins in that division.

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

3) NY Jets - Over 5.5. Call me a homer, but I'm one of the most pessimistic Jets fans you'll find and I think this team will be tough and disciplined. IF Fields can stay healthy and they execute the RPO and ground game, I can definitely see 7-8 wins.

You are a homer.

I would agree with you if you can guarantee me that Fields plays at least 12-14 games. But…you know the history of Jets with quarterbacks. He is a running QB who has had injuries in the past. And…if he goes out…the backup plan is weak. Injury prone Taylor is already injured and he isn’t getting younger. Who is up next? Brady Cook? We both know…considering the Jets past…there is more than a 50-50 shot that Cook will start games this year. And that’s a very bad thing.

Now…if Mougey gets aggressive to get a better third string QB..then maybe. But as the roster is currently designed…I have serious concerns about the qb position.

Not to mention…a less than average group of receivers…and questionable depth on the DL and LB.

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

Patriots - Over. Defense will keep them in games and the schedule is easy.

over 8.5? I think they will be much better but 9 wins seems a bit of a stretch.

I would pick the NY Giants over 5.5. That defensive line is so good it will make up for all of the rest of the defense’s deficiencies. Nabors is a star…and I think Wilson (or Dart) will find him often…even with a questionable offensive line. Of course it will be tough in the NFC East, but i have a feeling they are going to surprise this year.

Jaguars over 7.5. Weaker division…Lawrence with an offensive guru…Travis Hunter.

Agree with @Deepster on Bills over 11.5

 

[Deepster]

You are a homer.

I would agree with you if you can guarantee me that Fields plays at least 12-14 games. But…you know the history of Jets with quarterbacks. He is a running QB who has had injuries in the past. And…if he goes out…the backup plan is weak. Injury prone Taylor is already injured and he isn’t getting younger. Who is up next? Brady Cook? We both know…considering the Jets past…there is more than a 50-50 shot that Cook will start games this year. And that’s a very bad thing.

Now…if Mougey gets aggressive to get a better third string QB..then maybe. But as the roster is currently designed…I have serious concerns about the qb position.

Not to mention…a less than average group of receivers…and questionable depth on the DL and LB.

 

[HuskyHawk]

over 8.5? I think they will be much better but 9 wins seems a bit of a stretch.

I would pick the NY Giants over 5.5. That defensive line is so good it will make up for all of the rest of the defense’s deficiencies. Nabors is a star…and I think Wilson (or Dart) will find him often…even with a questionable offensive line. Of course it will be tough in the NFC East, but i have a feeling they are going to surprise this year.

Jaguars over 7.5. Weaker division…Lawrence with an offensive guru…Travis Hunter.

Agree with @Deepster on Bills over 11.5

They are currently favored in 11 games. I'm always an optimist, but Vrabel makes a huge difference.