Next Man Up - Butch Jones out @ Tennessee

[UConnJim]

Georgia and Florida have a better recruiting area, I won't argue against that. But the point here is that Tennessee recruiting over the last two decades has been able to get equivalent talent to those two programs; in part by owning their own state.

Georgia only suffers minimal loses to Georgia Tech. But Florida does feel the pinch in years where Miami and Florida State have great years (with the exception of this year's anomaly by FSU). I think Florida is going to have a couple years of uphill sledding, at least from their typical standards.

But to say that Tennessee doesn't have a fantastic recruiting region of almost 7 million people that love and play football all year long is just ludicrous. Like you said, compared to Nebraska, they are the land of recruiting riches...

Again, it's relative. Based on recruiting rankings, Tennessee recruits better than Nebraska, but I would say it's easier to win at Nebraska. Why?

Tennessee typically ranks 3rd in the SEC East in recruiting and 6th overall in the SEC. Plus, Tennessee plays Alabama every year. So, they are playing 2 schools in their division every year that recruit better than them and at least 1 school in the other division that recruits better than them. Based on recruiting rankings, they play at least 3 and up to 5 schools in the SEC every year that have better recruiting rankings. That is hard.

In contrast, Nebraska typically ranks 1st in the Big 10 West recruiting and 4th in the Big 10 overall. Based on recruiting rankings, they would not play a team in the Big 10 West with higher recruiting rankings and they would play 0 to 2 teams per year with higher recruiting rankings in the Big 10 each year. That's pretty good.

Thus, I think it is easier for Nebraska to win the Big 10 West than Tennessee to win the SEC East. Scott Frost now has recruiting ties in California from his Oregon days and Florida. I think he would be able to improve Nebraska recruiting.

If Frost is looking for the better opportunity to win, I think he would chose Nebraska over Tennessee.

 

[TheDrifter75]

Was not always that way and they can get back into the top tier - that means being in contention every year - not winning it. Third Saturday in October used to be really meaningful. UT will spend and they have great facilities and having been to many places in the SEC Neyland is pretty damn great.

If you've not been to Knoxville on game day do yourself a favor and go.

Brace yourself, hearing Rocky Top on repeat is worse than It's a small world at Disney.

 

[Brochacho]

Wouldn't surprise me if the AAC lost a third of its coaches this go around. Frost is obvious, probably the hottest commodity on the market. Not sure if Strong would leave after one season but I think its clear he is a P5 level HC. Mike Norvell and Chad Morris are both probably a year away, but could both be picked up. Think Applewhite maybe be a year away from a P5 jump as well.

 

[huskysupporter]

Butch Jones is a good coach. Won’t have trouble landing on his feet.

 

[UConnJim]

Butch Jones is a good coach. Won’t have trouble landing on his feet.

He'll probably end up in the AAC.

 

[UConnDan97]

Again, it's relative. Based on recruiting rankings, Tennessee recruits better than Nebraska, but I would say it's easier to win at Nebraska. Why?

Tennessee typically ranks 3rd in the SEC East in recruiting and 6th overall in the SEC. Plus, Tennessee plays Alabama every year. So, they are playing 2 schools in their division every year that recruit better than them and at least 1 school in the other division that recruits better than them. Based on recruiting rankings, they play at least 3 and up to 5 schools in the SEC every year that have better recruiting rankings. That is hard.

In contrast, Nebraska typically ranks 1st in the Big 10 West recruiting and 4th in the Big 10 overall. Based on recruiting rankings, they would not play a team in the Big 10 West with higher recruiting rankings and they would play 0 to 2 teams per year with higher recruiting rankings in the Big 10 each year. That's pretty good.

Thus, I think it is easier for Nebraska to win the Big 10 West than Tennessee to win the SEC East. Scott Frost now has recruiting ties in California from his Oregon days and Florida. I think he would be able to improve Nebraska recruiting.

If Frost is looking for the better opportunity to win, I think he would chose Nebraska over Tennessee.

I understand what you're saying, but I'm not sure I agree 100% with it. By your logic and criteria, there is no better coaching situation than USC. Not even Texas's situation is as good, considering Oklahoma's recruiting ranking. Although Oregon's ranking is higher so far this year, USC is safely higher than them over the vast majority of years.

As a coach, I would look at three factors:

1) Can I attract the highest level of talent?
2) Can I attract the highest level of salary?
3) Are the expectations of success realistic to the job?

I think all three questions can be answered "yes" for Tennessee football...

 

[huskysupporter]

He'll probably end up in the AAC.

Would be a great hire for whatever team gets him.

 

[Walker11]

I understand what you're saying, but I'm not sure I agree 100% with it. By your logic and criteria, there is no better coaching situation than USC. Not even Texas's situation is as good, considering Oklahoma's recruiting ranking. Although Oregon's ranking is higher so far this year, USC is safely higher than them over the vast majority of years.

As a coach, I would look at three factors:

1) Can I attract the highest level of talent?
2) Can I attract the highest level of salary?
3) Are the expectations of success realistic to the job?

I think all three questions can be answered "yes" for Tennessee football...

I don't think #3 is true, at least with their fans.

Tennessee has a higher ceiling. The top 5 recruiting classes speak to that. You can win at the highest level there but you can also have a very solid, top 25ish team that goes 500 because of the conference.

The Nebraska job should have less variability and a higher floor regardless of the turd Riley and Diaco are currently laying. The comparative attractiveness is going to depend on the mentality of the coach.

 

[UConnJim]

I understand what you're saying, but I'm not sure I agree 100% with it. By your logic and criteria, there is no better coaching situation than USC. Not even Texas's situation is as good, considering Oklahoma's recruiting ranking. Although Oregon's ranking is higher so far this year, USC is safely higher than them over the vast majority of years.

As a coach, I would look at three factors:

1) Can I attract the highest level of talent?
2) Can I attract the highest level of salary?
3) Are the expectations of success realistic to the job?

I think all three questions can be answered "yes" for Tennessee football...

#3 is the problem. I spent a few years in Tennessee in the mid 90s and the expectations are too high. Tennessee has had 1 ten win season in over 10 years, yet the fans expect them to compete for national championships. They are competing with Georgia and Florida in the SEC East and Alabama, Auburn, and LSU in the SEC West. Tennessee will be lucky to make it to the SEC championship once per decade. Do you think that is what the fans expect?

That said, Tennessee could become a top program again if they get the right coach. But, will a top coach take the job? The last 3 coaching searches at Tennessee have been a scramble.

 

[Northbound]

Brace yourself, hearing Rocky Top on repeat is worse than It's a small world at Disney.

That is one of the awesome things about Neyland. - but having been a fan of UT since I was 10 probably skews my opinion of thing s a bit

 

[UConnDan97]

#3 is the problem. I spent a few years in Tennessee in the mid 90s and the expectations are too high. Tennessee has had 1 ten win season in over 10 years, yet the fans expect them to compete for national championships. They are competing with Georgia and Florida in the SEC East and Alabama, Auburn, and LSU in the SEC West. Tennessee will be lucky to make it to the SEC championship once per decade. Do you think that is what the fans expect?

That said, Tennessee could become a top program again if they get the right coach. But, will a top coach take the job? The last 3 coaching searches at Tennessee have been a scramble.

Although I think that Jones was a pretty good coach, you could certainly make the argument that he's not a top 15 coach. And I think that's the point for Tennessee. If you have top 15 talent but not a top 15 coach, then what the heck are you doing?

In other words, if they landed someone like Richt rather than Miami, we'd be having a different discussion. Or about 15 other guys out there. And Tennessee is more than capable of paying a top 15 salary to a top 15 guy. And if I'm being honest, they're making the right move if they can land a top 15 guy...

 

[uconnbill]

Tennessee is a top notch job and would be a step up for Mullen or any other coach mentioned in the article.

Their sports page on a day after the game is 7-8 pages of info on the game. They eat, drink and sleep Rocky Mount football. Plus they will pony up 6+ million plus to coach.

 

[UConnJim]

Although I think that Jones was a pretty good coach, you could certainly make the argument that he's not a top 15 coach. And I think that's the point for Tennessee. If you have top 15 talent but not a top 15 coach, then what the heck are you doing?

In other words, if they landed someone like Richt rather than Miami, we'd be having a different discussion. Or about 15 other guys out there. And Tennessee is more than capable of paying a top 15 salary to a top 15 guy. And if I'm being honest, they're making the right move if they can land a top 15 guy...

If Tennessee is ranked #15 every year, they will still probably be in 3rd place in the SEC East. Phil Fulmer, who was the head coach for 16 full years, had a record of 152-52 overall and 96-34 in the SEC and he had 10 top 15 finishes (+1 when he coached a partial season), but he only played in 5 SEC championships and won 2 SEC championships! Unfortunately, that is the reality of the Tennessee job. If you were ranked 15th every year and were in the Big 10 West, you would probably be in 1st or 2nd place in the West and play for the Big 10 championship at least every other year.

 

[06029]

Butch Jones is a good coach. Won’t have trouble landing on his feet.

BC. After Uconn beats BC this weekend and lose to Cuse next weekend and finish 5-7, with a new AD, they will be looking for a new coach.

 

[UConnDan97]

If Tennessee is ranked #15 every year, they will still probably be in 3rd place in the SEC East. Phil Fulmer, who was the head coach for 16 full years, had a record of 152-52 overall and 96-34 in the SEC and he had 10 top 15 finishes (+1 when he coached a partial season), but he only played in 5 SEC championships and won 2 SEC championships! Unfortunately, that is the reality of the Tennessee job. If you were ranked 15th every year and were in the Big 10 West, you would probably be in 1st or 2nd place in the West and play for the Big 10 championship at least every other year.

I hear what you're saying and there's certainly some truth to it. But I think part of that truth is why Jones is out. Here is a year by year assessment of where Tennessee would fall in the SEC East in terms of recruiting (based on Rivals team rankings):

2018 - 3rd (currently)
2017 - 3rd
2016 - T-2nd w/ Florida
2015 - 1st
2014 - 1st
2013 - 1st
2012 - 3rd
2011 - T-2nd w/ Florida
2010 - 2nd
2009 - T-2nd w/ Florida
2008 - 3rd
2007 - 2nd

That's a long way to go back, and what I'm seeing is that they have about the same amount of talent on average as the other two teams. They've been #1 almost as many times as they've been #3, and they've been #2 the most.

Now if I'm a Tennessee fan and I'm seeing based on the above values that I have an equivalent team for all intents and purposes, yet I haven't been to the SEC championship game since 2007....I'd probably be a little ticked off too. I think the right coach there is going to make some real problems for the other teams in that division...

 

[UConnJim]

I hear what you're saying and there's certainly some truth to it. But I think part of that truth is why Jones is out. Here is a year by year assessment of where Tennessee would fall in the SEC East in terms of recruiting (based on Rivals team rankings):

2018 - 3rd (currently)
2017 - 3rd
2016 - T-2nd w/ Florida
2015 - 1st
2014 - 1st
2013 - 1st
2012 - 3rd
2011 - T-2nd w/ Florida
2010 - 2nd
2009 - T-2nd w/ Florida
2008 - 3rd
2007 - 2nd

That's a long way to go back, and what I'm seeing is that they have about the same amount of talent on average as the other two teams. They've been #1 almost as many times as they've been #3, and they've been #2 the most.

Now if I'm a Tennessee fan and I'm seeing based on the above values that I have an equivalent team for all intents and purposes, yet I haven't been to the SEC championship game since 2007....I'd probably be a little ticked off too. I think the right coach there is going to make some real problems for the other teams in that division...

I think you misread the Rivals rankings. Here is where Tennessee ranked in the SEC East for those years:

2018 - 4th
2017 - 3rd
2016 - 3rd
2015 - 1st
2014 - 1st
2013 - 5th
2012 - 3rd
2011 - 3rd
2010 - 2nd
2009 - 2nd
2008 - 4th
2007 - 2nd

Average = 2.75, so Tennessee has been recruiting ~ the 3rd best talent in the SEC East. Plus, their annual rivalry game is Alabama, which has out recruited Tennessee 11 out of those 12 years (only year was 2007). Throw in the years when they play LSU or Auburn from the West and Tennessee is playing against 3 or 4 SEC schools that usually out recruit them annually. That is a tough job!

 

[huskypantz]

He'll probably end up in the AAC.

I would not be surprised if he ends up at UCF. And he's definitely a good coach.

 

[UConnDan97]

I think you misread the Rivals rankings. Here is where Tennessee ranked in the SEC East for those years:

2018 - 4th
2017 - 3rd
2016 - 3rd
2015 - 1st
2014 - 1st
2013 - 5th
2012 - 3rd
2011 - 3rd
2010 - 2nd
2009 - 2nd
2008 - 4th
2007 - 2nd

Average = 2.75, so Tennessee has been recruiting ~ the 3rd best talent in the SEC East. Plus, their annual rivalry game is Alabama, which has out recruited Tennessee 11 out of those 12 years (only year was 2007). Throw in the years when they play LSU or Auburn from the West and Tennessee is playing against 3 or 4 SEC schools that usually out recruit them annually. That is a tough job!

Not misread. There's a discrepancy in what we are saying. I was comparing Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee only, since those are the teams we are talking about and since we both agree that their recruiting is noticeably better than South Carolina. So in the two years where South Carolina snuck above them, I didn't add it. Also, the spots where I said that there was a tie between Florida and Tennessee was when their spots were next to each other. One of those, Tennessee was listed first, and in another, Florida was listed first. But in my book, that's a tie.

As far as having an annual rivalry game with Alabama; Alabama would likely list their rivalry games in the following order:

1) Auburn
...
...
...
2) LSU
3) Other SEC teams

In fact, I'd argue that Tennessee has a better rivalry with Florida than with Alabama, even though Florida is more likely to recognize Georgia as their biggest out of state rival.

Is it a tough job? Yes. But all the weapons are there to be highly successful. And one can argue that Butch Jones didn't do the job as well as other might or others perhaps should. It will be interesting to see who they hire...

 

[jazyj]

He'll probably end up in the AAC.

Swap with Mike Norvell

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Can Brett Beleima be too far behind?

My money says he's gone by December 5.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

The comments some on this board make on schools like Nebraska and Tennessee make me wonder what they think we could possibly ever accomplish in football (if those schools are destined to be second division programs in P-5 conferences we can never do anything in a G-5 conference).

I also view the comments as evidence of how little much of our fan base knows about college football. The same comments could have been made a dozen years ago about Alabama. The reality is any school with fan bases like Nebraska or Tennessee is no more than one good hire and a couple recruiting classes away from being a power.

 

[UConnJim]

The comments some on this board make on schools like Nebraska and Tennessee make me wonder what they think we could possibly ever accomplish in football (if those schools are destined to be second division programs in P-5 conferences we can never do anything in a G-5 conference).

I also view the comments as evidence of how little much of our fan base knows about college football. The same comments could have been made a dozen years ago about Alabama. The reality is any school with fan bases like Nebraska or Tennessee is no more than one good hire and a couple recruiting classes away from being a power.

But, finding and hiring the right guy is extremely difficult. And, expectations at both Tennessee and Nebraska are out of whack.

Think about this. Nebraska's all time winning percentage is 0.696. They fired Frank Solich after 6 years despite 3 top 10 finishes and 5 top 20 finishes in 6 years and a 0.753 winning percentage. Bo Pelini was fired after 6 top 25 finishes in 7 years, 4 conference division championships, and a 0.710 winning percentage.

As for Tennessee, they have a very difficult schedule as they play Florida, Georgia, and Alabama every year. Combined, those 3 schools have won 16 out of the last 25 SEC titles. Jones record against the 3 schools? 3-12. Dooley's record? 0-9. Kiffin's record? 1-2. Even Fulmer who had great success at Tennessee? 25-23. In the past 25 years, Tennessee has gone 3-0 against their rivals twice. They have 2 SEC championships in the past 25 years with the last almost 20 years ago and Fulmer coached for 10 years after his last SEC championship.

Tennessee has great fan support and Neyland Stadium is a great place to see a game, but it is a very tough place to win SEC championships.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

UConnJim,

I don't believe the fan expectations for football at Nebraska & Tennessee are any more"out of whack" than our expectations for our men's basketball program. I will go so far as to argue that the two football programs in question would never have deteriorating fan support a few years after a national championship similar to what we are experiencing, regardless of who the opponents would be.

Yes, it is very difficult to find the right coach. Look at how many years Alabama was an afterthought. The same could have been said about Southern Cal before Carroll (and it may be time to say since Carroll) and unlike the schools mentioned, USC has a very fickle fan base (they support the school when a national title is possible but it's hit or miss outside of that).

 

[ZooCougar]

There is really no reason for Tennessee to be this bad. They have access to tons of talent. If Ohio State can be good then so can Tennessee.

They just need a bigtime coach like a Les Miles to guide the ship.

 

[UConnDan97]

UConnJim,

I don't believe the fan expectations for football at Nebraska & Tennessee are any more"out of whack" than our expectations for our men's basketball program. I will go so far as to argue that the two football programs in question would never have deteriorating fan support a few years after a national championship similar to what we are experiencing, regardless of who the opponents would be.

Yes, it is very difficult to find the right coach. Look at how many years Alabama was an afterthought. The same could have been said about Southern Cal before Carroll (and it may be time to say since Carroll) and unlike the schools mentioned, USC has a very fickle fan base (they support the school when a national title is possible but it's hit or miss outside of that).

What you're saying has some truth to it; the fact that the right coach and the right recruits could lead to the right outcome. And I've argued that point to death in this thread as it pertains to Tennessee.

But keep this in mind; for all of the financial resources and institutional advantages that Notre Dame has, they haven't won the championship since 1988. Thirty years without a championship, paying the top dollar to coaches and getting the top recruits in the country. Thirty years. Their own tv contract with NBC. Freedom to schedule whomever the heck they want. Thirty years.

The point I'm trying to make is this; you can be successful in football. You can be EXTREMELY successful in football. But winning it all is ridiculously tough (somehow Alabama has won 4 of the last 8 though). Even more so than basketball, where one player can dominate and change the entire outcome (place Carmelo Anthony right here ___). Extremely extremely hard, even with the best coaches (i.e., Harbaugh with Don Brown) and the best recruiting.

Expecting 10-2 every year? Doable at many of these schools. Expecting championships? Go find a different hobby...

 

[UConnJim]

What you're saying has some truth to it; the fact that the right coach and the right recruits could lead to the right outcome. And I've argued that point to death in this thread as it pertains to Tennessee.

But keep this in mind; for all of the financial resources and institutional advantages that Notre Dame has, they haven't won the championship since 1988. Thirty years without a championship, paying the top dollar to coaches and getting the top recruits in the country. Thirty years. Their own tv contract with NBC. Freedom to schedule whomever the heck they want. Thirty years.

The point I'm trying to make is this; you can be successful in football. You can be EXTREMELY successful in football. But winning it all is ridiculously tough (somehow Alabama has won 4 of the last 8 though). Even more so than basketball, where one player can dominate and change the entire outcome (place Carmelo Anthony right here ___). Extremely extremely hard, even with the best coaches (i.e., Harbaugh with Don Brown) and the best recruiting.

Expecting 10-2 every year? Doable at many of these schools. Expecting championships? Go find a different hobby...

This will be my last comment.

10-2 every year? Over the last 5 years, only 2 schools have had 2 or less losses every year including bowls, Alabama and Ohio St. And there are only 6 schools that have had 2 or fewer losses in at least 3 out of the last 5 years: Clemson, Oklahoma, Oregon, and FSU. One 2 or fewer loss seasons in the past 5 years include: Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, and ND, and all of them have had coaches fired in the past 5 years (Florida, Georgia, Michigan) or the coach has been on an incredibly hot seat (Auburn and ND).

I think you have to look at each team's competition to judge how many wins are possible each year. I think in the Big 10 West, going 10-3 every year is possible for a school as the division is pretty weak. In the SEC East, I think going 10-3 every year is not likely. It looks like only 1 or 2 teams per conference can consistently have 2 or 3 losses every season.

Bottomline is that expectations are too high for all of the top schools which is why they go through so many coaches.

 

[UConnDan97]

This will be my last comment.

10-2 every year? Over the last 5 years, only 2 schools have had 2 or less losses every year including bowls, Alabama and Ohio St. And there are only 6 schools that have had 2 or fewer losses in at least 3 out of the last 5 years: Clemson, Oklahoma, Oregon, and FSU. One 2 or fewer loss seasons in the past 5 years include: Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, and ND, and all of them have had coaches fired in the past 5 years (Florida, Georgia, Michigan) or the coach has been on an incredibly hot seat (Auburn and ND).

I think you have to look at each team's competition to judge how many wins are possible each year. I think in the Big 10 West, going 10-3 every year is possible for a school as the division is pretty weak. In the SEC East, I think going 10-3 every year is not likely. It looks like only 1 or 2 teams per conference can consistently have 2 or 3 losses every season.

Bottomline is that expectations are too high for all of the top schools which is why they go through so many coaches.

Holy wow, man.

By "10-2 every year", what I mean is something like 11-1, 10-2, 9-3, where the average is about 10-2. Some years are a little better or a little worse than others. I mean, hell, Butch Jones just got fired because he went 9-4 each of the last two years and won his bowl games...

 

[UConnJim]

Holy wow, man.

By "10-2 every year", what I mean is something like 11-1, 10-2, 9-3, where the average is about 10-2. Some years are a little better or a little worse than others. I mean, hell, Butch Jones just got fired because he went 9-4 each of the last two years and won his bowl games...

OK. One last message .

Over the past 5 years, not including this year, only 4 schools have averaged 2 or less losses per season: Ohio St., Alabama, Clemson, and Florida St. (and after this year, FSU will fall off the list.) There are only 2 schools that averaged 3 losses per year: Oklahoma and Stanford. So, 6 schools average 3 losses or less per season over the past 5 years, but there are another 15+ schools that think they should average 3 or fewer losses per year: Oregon, USC, Washington, UCLA, Michigan, Penn St., Nebraska, Wisconsin, Texas, Miami, Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, LSU, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, and Florida. Mathematically, it can't happen and there will be a lot of disappointed fan bases. (Side note: The other powers in the SEC: Georgia 3.6 losses per year, LSU 3.6 losses per year, Texas A&M 4.2 losses per year, Florida 4.6 losses per year, Auburn 5.4 losses per year, Tennessee 5.6 losses per year.)

End of the day, the expectations of college football fans are out of whack relative to what is possible.

 

[UConnDan97]

OK. One last message .

Over the past 5 years, not including this year, only 4 schools have averaged 2 or less losses per season: Ohio St., Alabama, Clemson, and Florida St. (and after this year, FSU will fall off the list.) There are only 2 schools that averaged 3 losses per year: Oklahoma and Stanford. So, 6 schools average 3 losses or less per season over the past 5 years, but there are another 15+ schools that think they should average 3 or fewer losses per year: Oregon, USC, Washington, UCLA, Michigan, Penn St., Nebraska, Wisconsin, Texas, Miami, Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, LSU, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, and Florida. Mathematically, it can't happen and there will be a lot of disappointed fan bases. (Side note: The other powers in the SEC: Georgia 3.6 losses per year, LSU 3.6 losses per year, Texas A&M 4.2 losses per year, Florida 4.6 losses per year, Auburn 5.4 losses per year, Tennessee 5.6 losses per year.)

End of the day, the expectations of college football fans are out of whack relative to what is possible.

Good grief.

What is it about the words "something like 11-1, 10-2, 9-3" that you are failing to grasp?? You've arbitrarily chosen a 5 year period to analyze a mathematical formula to see which team is achieving an absolute value of equal to or less than 2 losses per year. That is completely NOT the point that I'm making. And you can and SHOULD take out outlier years that don't match the norm (hurt QB? coaching change? superior conference mate performance that year?).

For example, let's take Georgia, who you've pointed out does not mathematically achieve 2 or less losses over a 5 year average:

2002: 13-1
2003: 11-3
2004: 10-2
2005: 10-3 (one loss was a bowl game)
2006: 9-4
2007: 11-2
2008: 10-3
2009: 8-5
2010: 6-7 (one loss was a bowl game)
2011: 10-4 (one loss was a bowl game)
2012: 12-2
2013: 8-5 (one loss was a bowl game)
2014: 10-3
2015: 10-3
2016: 8-5 [first year coach]
2017: 9-1 (current)

So their average losses during the regular season since 2002 is 3 losses per year. However, if I take out the first year of the new head coach and the obvious outlier of 2010, their average losses per regular season less than 2.5 losses when factoring in the three losses that came from the SEC championship games (2003, 2011, 2012). And Georgia absolutely should expect to be in that range of losses per regular season. And since we both agree, I think, that Tennessee has similar recruiting classes, they should expect to be within that range, give or take. Of course, with the caveat that a coaching change normally means a change in system and typically means a "down year" in terms of wins and losses.

So, no, I don't think that I'm off base with this. If you have Georgia level talent, you should expect to have the majority of your years in the 1 to 3 loss range in a 12 game season, not including championship games and bowl games. If you perform this same exercise for Oregon going back to 2005, you'll find their number to be even better than Georgia (PAC12 vs. SEC is the difference there, likely). Same thing for LSU. Almost the same for Wisconsin. And so on and so on...

 

[UConnJim]

Good grief.

What is it about the words "something like 11-1, 10-2, 9-3" that you are failing to grasp?? You've arbitrarily chosen a 5 year period to analyze a mathematical formula to see which team is achieving an absolute value of equal to or less than 2 losses per year. That is completely NOT the point that I'm making. And you can and SHOULD take out outlier years that don't match the norm (hurt QB? coaching change? superior conference mate performance that year?).

For example, let's take Georgia, who you've pointed out does not mathematically achieve 2 or less losses over a 5 year average:

2002: 13-1
2003: 11-3
2004: 10-2
2005: 10-3 (one loss was a bowl game)
2006: 9-4
2007: 11-2
2008: 10-3
2009: 8-5
2010: 6-7 (one loss was a bowl game)
2011: 10-4 (one loss was a bowl game)
2012: 12-2
2013: 8-5 (one loss was a bowl game)
2014: 10-3
2015: 10-3
2016: 8-5 [first year coach]
2017: 9-1 (current)

So their average losses during the regular season since 2002 is 3 losses per year. However, if I take out the first year of the new head coach and the obvious outlier of 2010, their average losses per regular season less than 2.5 losses when factoring in the three losses that came from the SEC championship games (2003, 2011, 2012). And Georgia absolutely should expect to be in that range of losses per regular season. And since we both agree, I think, that Tennessee has similar recruiting classes, they should expect to be within that range, give or take. Of course, with the caveat that a coaching change normally means a change in system and typically means a "down year" in terms of wins and losses.

So, no, I don't think that I'm off base with this. If you have Georgia level talent, you should expect to have the majority of your years in the 1 to 3 loss range in a 12 game season, not including championship games and bowl games. If you perform this same exercise for Oregon going back to 2005, you'll find their number to be even better than Georgia (PAC12 vs. SEC is the difference there, likely). Same thing for LSU. Almost the same for Wisconsin. And so on and so on...

You can't use caveats for victories. The records are the records.

And, what don't you understand about math? If Tennessee is playing Georgia, Florida, and Alabama every year, they have to beat 2 out of the three to have a chance at a 2 loss or 3 loss season. Just like Florida plays Georgia, Tennessee, and LSU and has to beat 2 out of the three to have a chance of a 2 or 3 loss season. Georgia plays Tennessee, Florida, and Auburn and has to beat 2 out of the 3 to have a chance of a 2 or 3 loss season. That is why only Alabama out of the SEC has averaged 2 or fewer losses per season over the past 5 years. It's simple math that you can't have Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama, and LSU all averaging 2 or less wins per season. At best, only 1 or 2 of the schools can do it over any 5 year period. But that is not the fan expectation and that is why Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and LSU have all dumped coaches and Auburn has been close to dumping their coach last year.

I used to work in Tennessee and consistent 3 and 4 loss seasons are not acceptable to the fan base, but that is the ceiling for Tennessee in the SEC unless they find the next Nick Satan.