nelsonmuntz
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I posted this after the National Championship two years ago.
There has been a lot of change in college athletics, but no "shock" yet. I think UConn needs a true shock to the system to get into a P4. Asking nicely is very unlikely to work for creating an opening or getting UConn more revenue. So what is going to change? My rankings in order of likelihood:
1) Demographic cliff - this is becoming a bigger factor faster than even I expected, and I tagged it 2 years ago. Several of the P4 schools are already in trouble, and the entire model of higher education needs a major overhaul to be sustainable. Every expense at every university is getting scrutinized, and money losing athletic programs that are sucking up alumni donations and losing on the field/court are definitely going to be questioned by some schools.
2) Performance Revenue Split - It is becoming clear that some of the P4, and even schools within the mid and low major conferences, simply do not care. They get the conference revenue split whether they are good or bad, so why bother paying to be good? Many of the old Big East schools appear to have reached this realization. This has to be pissing off the schools that are investing back into their product, because someone in the tOSU athletic department is asking why they are splitting revenue with a bunch of teams that can not generate a more competitive game than Ohio University. The Pac 12's Apple deal had a performance split, and I think it is a matter of time before every conference does. This will have an impact on which schools will want to compete at the highest level.
This section captures my changing revenue model point from two years ago. There is a lot in flux on the revenue side that could be helpful to UConn.
3) Football breaks off - This year's Transfer Portal is likely pissing off many of the P4 schools who are suddenly finding themselves losing players to Xavier and Providence. St. Johns is practically the Death Star of the Transfer Portal, able to go toe-to-toe with anyone. There is a loophole in the rules that can be closed, but the underlying problem of basketball competing with football for resources on every campus that has FBS football is not going away. Even at the mid-major level, the A10 and WCC (+ Gonzaga and St. Mary's) are pulling away from the AAC. Football generates a lot more revenue, and requires a lot more in expenses. On campuses, the non-revenue sports hate football, it is a Title IX lawsuit waiting to happen (forcing UCLA women's volleyball to go to the upper Midwest in the winter because of football) and it makes logical sense to simply break it off into a separately regulated and managed sport with its own rules. That doesn't mean it will happen. It will probably take a Title IX lawsuit, but I bet there are schools within the P4 that wouldn't mind football being its own thing.
Related to that, I think the Top 15 or so programs start to pull far away from the pack because the resources they are willing to commit are simply staggering. Purdue may never beat Ohio State again, ever. Why play the games? Maybe someday there are two tiered conferences just for football based on salary caps. This would probably be a great outcome for UConn.
2A and 3A) Merge the Big East into ACC or Big 12 - I know this idea is triggering for some, but merging a decent basketball conference into another non-P2 is additive, and especially works if there are performance revenue splits because it does not cost the surviving conference anything financially.
4) Litigation/Regulation - this is more of a "how" than a "why/what", but college athletics needs a true regulatory framework and when that comes, it could take some unexpected forms.
5) ACC Survivor Conference - I know this is the twig many on this board are holding onto for hope. UNC/UVA leave, and we are invited as full members to replace them and everyone lives happily ever after. I am skeptical. I am skeptical that without a big change somewhere in college sports, UNC/UVA are getting invited to any other league, and I am skeptical that if there is a confluence of events that result in, say, the Big 10 inviting them, those same factors will cause a race for the door of FSU, Miami, Clemson, the prestige academics, etc. Generally, when a conference comes apart, it really comes apart, and I think that a 2032 invitation to join a leftover conference of Syracuse, Wake, BCU, NC State, VTech and whoever will not be worth much.
6) Prestige Academics - I know this is also triggering to some of you, but I talk to grads from these schools regularly, and most of them do not care about their conference mates. They would much rather be in a league with each other. It may never happen, but if there is a catalyst to trigger UNC/UVA to leave, the same catalyst could very likely trigger Duke, Wake, BCU, Stanford, Cal, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Rice, etc. to form their own conference.
7) Ask nicely - I think there is a tiny chance that the Big 12 just extends an invitation to UConn in the next 5 years. I think it is a tiny chance, but it is not a 0% chance.
8) Gambling - I have moved this down. I am stipulating there is pervasive cheating. Just watch, there are so many fishy games in football and basketball, and it is known that players have participated in point-shaving. The only ones that have gotten caught are those stupid enough to do something like betting hundreds of thousands of dollars on a Wednesday night MAC game. They might as well have turned themselves into the FBI as soon as they placed the bets. The chance of those being the only games with point shaving is 0%. Yet people are still inexplicably betting on sports events despite knowing there is widespread cheating. In my misspent youth, I enjoyed an occasion wager (or 5) on the Saturday (or Tuesday or Wednesday or....) slate of games. There is no way I would gamble today, because it appears that so many of the games are fixed. I don't know what anyone does about this, but the strange thing is, people don't seem to care.
Thoughts? Any other idea?
There has been a lot of change in college athletics, but no "shock" yet. I think UConn needs a true shock to the system to get into a P4. Asking nicely is very unlikely to work for creating an opening or getting UConn more revenue. So what is going to change? My rankings in order of likelihood:
1) Demographic cliff - this is becoming a bigger factor faster than even I expected, and I tagged it 2 years ago. Several of the P4 schools are already in trouble, and the entire model of higher education needs a major overhaul to be sustainable. Every expense at every university is getting scrutinized, and money losing athletic programs that are sucking up alumni donations and losing on the field/court are definitely going to be questioned by some schools.
2) Performance Revenue Split - It is becoming clear that some of the P4, and even schools within the mid and low major conferences, simply do not care. They get the conference revenue split whether they are good or bad, so why bother paying to be good? Many of the old Big East schools appear to have reached this realization. This has to be pissing off the schools that are investing back into their product, because someone in the tOSU athletic department is asking why they are splitting revenue with a bunch of teams that can not generate a more competitive game than Ohio University. The Pac 12's Apple deal had a performance split, and I think it is a matter of time before every conference does. This will have an impact on which schools will want to compete at the highest level.
This section captures my changing revenue model point from two years ago. There is a lot in flux on the revenue side that could be helpful to UConn.
3) Football breaks off - This year's Transfer Portal is likely pissing off many of the P4 schools who are suddenly finding themselves losing players to Xavier and Providence. St. Johns is practically the Death Star of the Transfer Portal, able to go toe-to-toe with anyone. There is a loophole in the rules that can be closed, but the underlying problem of basketball competing with football for resources on every campus that has FBS football is not going away. Even at the mid-major level, the A10 and WCC (+ Gonzaga and St. Mary's) are pulling away from the AAC. Football generates a lot more revenue, and requires a lot more in expenses. On campuses, the non-revenue sports hate football, it is a Title IX lawsuit waiting to happen (forcing UCLA women's volleyball to go to the upper Midwest in the winter because of football) and it makes logical sense to simply break it off into a separately regulated and managed sport with its own rules. That doesn't mean it will happen. It will probably take a Title IX lawsuit, but I bet there are schools within the P4 that wouldn't mind football being its own thing.
Related to that, I think the Top 15 or so programs start to pull far away from the pack because the resources they are willing to commit are simply staggering. Purdue may never beat Ohio State again, ever. Why play the games? Maybe someday there are two tiered conferences just for football based on salary caps. This would probably be a great outcome for UConn.
2A and 3A) Merge the Big East into ACC or Big 12 - I know this idea is triggering for some, but merging a decent basketball conference into another non-P2 is additive, and especially works if there are performance revenue splits because it does not cost the surviving conference anything financially.
4) Litigation/Regulation - this is more of a "how" than a "why/what", but college athletics needs a true regulatory framework and when that comes, it could take some unexpected forms.
5) ACC Survivor Conference - I know this is the twig many on this board are holding onto for hope. UNC/UVA leave, and we are invited as full members to replace them and everyone lives happily ever after. I am skeptical. I am skeptical that without a big change somewhere in college sports, UNC/UVA are getting invited to any other league, and I am skeptical that if there is a confluence of events that result in, say, the Big 10 inviting them, those same factors will cause a race for the door of FSU, Miami, Clemson, the prestige academics, etc. Generally, when a conference comes apart, it really comes apart, and I think that a 2032 invitation to join a leftover conference of Syracuse, Wake, BCU, NC State, VTech and whoever will not be worth much.
6) Prestige Academics - I know this is also triggering to some of you, but I talk to grads from these schools regularly, and most of them do not care about their conference mates. They would much rather be in a league with each other. It may never happen, but if there is a catalyst to trigger UNC/UVA to leave, the same catalyst could very likely trigger Duke, Wake, BCU, Stanford, Cal, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Rice, etc. to form their own conference.
7) Ask nicely - I think there is a tiny chance that the Big 12 just extends an invitation to UConn in the next 5 years. I think it is a tiny chance, but it is not a 0% chance.
8) Gambling - I have moved this down. I am stipulating there is pervasive cheating. Just watch, there are so many fishy games in football and basketball, and it is known that players have participated in point-shaving. The only ones that have gotten caught are those stupid enough to do something like betting hundreds of thousands of dollars on a Wednesday night MAC game. They might as well have turned themselves into the FBI as soon as they placed the bets. The chance of those being the only games with point shaving is 0%. Yet people are still inexplicably betting on sports events despite knowing there is widespread cheating. In my misspent youth, I enjoyed an occasion wager (or 5) on the Saturday (or Tuesday or Wednesday or....) slate of games. There is no way I would gamble today, because it appears that so many of the games are fixed. I don't know what anyone does about this, but the strange thing is, people don't seem to care.
Thoughts? Any other idea?