New reality for Florida State, Miami, and others

[billybud]

http://allsportsdiscussion.com/2022/07/16/how-much-is-the-acc-network-worth-to-espn/

 

[ScottVib]

The post wraps up with the thought that ESPN should restructure the deal, there is little reason for them to restructure the deal. With the GOR being "fairly ironclad" they would essentially be paying a market premium in a time with diminishing subscriber numbers to reopen and pay extra to teams whose rights they already own... to move them to a property whose rights they also already own, without a corresponding increase in revenue from that other network to offset.

The thought of ESPN reopening and buffing up the ACC network deal is wishful thinking so long as the GOR is found to be "fairly ironclad." In theory, the reason to do it would be to prevent a team from buying its way out to the Big Ten, but there's also reportedly a composition clause that allows it to be reopened if necessary should the wrong team(s) leave.

 

[Hoophound]

The post wraps up with the thought that ESPN should restructure the deal, there is little reason for them to restructure the deal. With the GOR being "fairly ironclad" they would essentially be paying a market premium in a time with diminishing subscriber numbers to reopen and pay extra to teams whose rights they already own... to move them to a property whose rights they also already own, without a corresponding increase in revenue from that other network to offset.

The thought of ESPN reopening and buffing up the ACC network deal is wishful thinking so long as the GOR is found to be "fairly ironclad." In theory, the reason to do it would be to prevent a team from buying its way out to the Big Ten, but there's also reportedly a composition clause that allows it to be reopened if necessary should the wrong team(s) leave.

It may be worth it to pay the ACC more and allow it to stay relevant. Paying less money for a less sought after product doesn't necessarily make sense. Maybe, they'd rather pay more and have a healthy and competitive ACC. It seems like the ACC usually gets itself out of bad situations and survives.

 

[ScottVib]

What do they get out of paying more to the ACC? The ACC schools have more money, but still not as much as the Big Ten & SEC. So they're at best a slightly stronger #3 conference... which is what they already are in the current world. Paying enough money to out-compete the Big Ten for #2 does what for Disney?

The ACCs role is to provide reasonably entertaining content on the secondary networks and timeslots, as well as helping to fill in content during the winter. They do that and are paid fairly well to do so, paying them more isn't going to make them better at doing that, they aren't likely to displace an attractive SEC game during the football season in the head to head with the Big Ten, regardless of how much income they have at their disposal.

Neither Disney nor Fox really cares about the competitiveness of the conferences.. just the desirability of the content and their ability to sell advertising/subscriptions for it. While there is a correlation between quality of play and desirability of the content, it's far from the only factor; Texas hasn't been great in awhile, they're still one of the most desirable properties because of their brand.

 

[bobbyinaz]

It may be worth it to pay the ACC more and allow it to stay relevant. Paying less money for a less sought after product doesn't necessarily make sense. Maybe, they'd rather pay more and have a healthy and competitive ACC. It seems like the ACC usually gets itself out of bad situations and survives.

ESPN is all in on the SEC with the new deal that starts next year.

With the money they've committed they can and will all fill of the prime spots with SEC teams and games. I expect more ACC marquee games end up on the ACC network and ESPN+.

ESPN has the ACC locked up for 14 more years. There is no reason to pay any more than they have to especially when much of the content will become "filler" once the new SEC deal starts

 

[Hoophound]

ESPN is all in on the SEC with the new deal that starts next year.

With the money they've committed they can and will all fill of the prime spots with SEC teams and games. I expect more ACC marquee games end up on the ACC network and ESPN+.

ESPN has the ACC locked up for 14 more years. There is no reason to pay any more than they have to especially when much of the content will become "filler" once the new SEC deal starts

I understand why people think this, but ESPN has always been very ACC friendly. ESPN is loaded with Cuse grads and Duke fan boys. I won’t be at all surprised if they are thrown a bone of some sort.

 

[UConnJim]

I understand why people think this, but ESPN has always been very ACC friendly. ESPN is loaded with Cuse grads and Duke fan boys. I won’t be at all surprised if they are thrown a bone of some sort.

There is a numbers problem for football games. ESPN/ESPN2/ABC have only so many time slots on a given Saturday. Excluding late night (after 9 PM) which the SEC won’t be playing, ESPN has 3 slots, ESPN2 has 3 slots, and ABC has 2 or 3 slots. That’s 8 to 9 slots and the SEC will have 8 to 12 home games each weekend. They will throw some games on the SEC network, but there aren’t many prime slots on ESPN/ABC for the ACC except when Notre Dame plays or some Clemson or Florida St. games. I would expect a bunch of ACC games on Thursday and Friday nights, ESPNU, and ACCN. And, ESPN may have to potentially fit in PAC 12, Big 12, and AAC games depending on how contract talks go. So, how can ESPN pay more for ACC content when they don’t have the need to fill prime slots?

 

[Kolumbo]

It'll be interesting to see how UCF's move to the Big 12 plays out, perhaps ending up in what could be the 3rd best conference, depending. Perhaps even USF gets scooped up. For the times they are a-changin'. While Florida State and Miami watch from their club-fed prisons.

 

[Billy Jack]

How ironclad is the GOR with regard to Notre Dame? They’re only in it for non-football sports, which pays them about $11 million per year right now. With the amount of money being paid out by the B1G, I imagine they could buy their way out of the GIR and still come out ahead? Or is that not how it works?

 

[JohnFSilver]

I agree with the overall conclusion of this article that everyone outside the B1G and SEC will become irrelevant. But I disagree that B1G expansion is finished.

Notre Dame will finally move to the B1G. They have no choice. The difference in $$$ is too great and failing to join will essentially shut them out of a chance to compete for a national championship. They will drag their feet, but in the end they will acquiesce.

The addition of ND will bring the B1G to 17, forcing them to add. I think that the addition of 3 is more likely than 1. A number divisible by 4 creates more flexibility than on only divisible by 2. That means at least 3 more. Adding Stanford, Washington, and Oregon will bring the additional benefit of solving the isolation of USC and UCLA on the West Coast.

I would also suggest that Miami will not. suddenly become irrelevant. They became irrelevant a long time ago. Their attendance has been dropping for at least a decade, their last national championship was more than 2 decades ago, and they’ve lost 10 of their last 11 bowl games. Remember that last bowl win? Drum roll, please. The esteemed Russell Athletic Bowl. Huh?

I think Miami is in trouble. They don’t really have a fanbase, and, that town is wealthy and there just seems to be money and excess down there. Players don’t pan out and it takes a lot to stay focused.

It just doesn’t strike me as a college campus that has that college Experience. Just a weird place.

 

[bobbyinaz]

How ironclad is the GOR with regard to Notre Dame? They’re only in it for non-football sports, which pays them about $11 million per year right now. With the amount of money being paid out by the B1G, I imagine they could buy their way out of the GIR and still come out ahead? Or is that not how it works?

Because of Notre Dame's part time membership every year that goes by makes it easier for them to buy their way out, even if it's only a couple years. USC/UCLA aren't going to the B1G until 2024 and then in 2025 you have UT/OK going to SEC, the CFP deal ending and Notre Dame's NBC contract expiring. If they wait 3 years their buyout goes down by $30+MM which is still a ton of money even for them.

Then they will, as they always do, try & squeeze NBC for a king's ransom while trying to make sure that whatever the new playoff looks like, they get access to it. If one, or possibly both of those don't go their way, they then join the B1G

 

[Kolumbo]

Because of Notre Dame's part time membership every year that goes by makes it easier for them to buy their way out, even if it's only a couple years. USC/UCLA aren't going to the B1G until 2024 and then in 2025 you have UT/OK going to SEC, the CFP deal ending and Notre Dame's NBC contract expiring. If they wait 3 years their buyout goes down by $30+MM which is still a ton of money even for them.

Then they will, as they always do, try & squeeze NBC for a king's ransom while trying to make sure that whatever the new playoff looks like, they get access to it. If one, or possibly both of those don't go their way, they then join the B1G

ND endowment = $18 billion. Only Texas and Stanford in the football world have more money. It seems to me ND will do whatever it thinks is best for ND long term regardless of the short terms costs. chump change.

 

[billybud]

"While most of Clemson’s ACC peers hover in the $2 billion to $5 billion endowment range, institutions with endowments in the double-digit billions include University of Virginia ($14.5 billion), University of Notre Dame ($13.3 billion) and Duke University ($12.7 billion)."

From Notre Dame....2021 Endowment growth...

The Notre Dame endowment pool's 53.2 percent investment return was the second-highest one-year return in its history. It grew by nearly $7 billion in overall assets. By the June 30, 2021, end of the fiscal year, the endowment pool had a market value of $20.3 billion.Apr 4, 2022

 

[AZHuskiePop]

I agree with the overall conclusion of this article that everyone outside the B1G and SEC will become irrelevant. But I disagree that B1G expansion is finished.

Notre Dame will finally move to the B1G. They have no choice. The difference in $$$ is too great and failing to join will essentially shut them out of a chance to compete for a national championship. They will drag their feet, but in the end they will acquiesce.

The addition of ND will bring the B1G to 17, forcing them to add. I think that the addition of 3 is more likely than 1. A number divisible by 4 creates more flexibility than on only divisible by 2. That means at least 3 more. Adding Stanford, Washington, and Oregon will bring the additional benefit of solving the isolation of USC and UCLA on the West Coast.

I would also suggest that Miami will not. suddenly become irrelevant. They became irrelevant a long time ago. Their attendance has been dropping for at least a decade, their last national championship was more than 2 decades ago, and they’ve lost 10 of their last 11 bowl games. Remember that last bowl win? Drum roll, please. The esteemed Russell Athletic Bowl. Huh?

I did an examination of ND‘s revenue a couple of years ago and totally understood why they preferred independence since they believe independence was the source of much of it.
However the game is changed and your either in the S2 ( Super 2)
or your stature will be diminished.
I think the the P3 will continue to have some relevance but at a lesser level and they may expand to get a more national footing
Everyone else is totally screwed

 

[TheDrifter75]

75 million per year. So, in 13 plus years this payout will equal 1/20th of their endowment. I know it's different money, but it puts it in perspective. Do they really need a conference? They have money rolling in, 75 M's is a fart to 20 B's.

 

[freescooter]

The number of times Miami has hired the Guy who was going to bring them back to glory over the last 20 years is remarkable. Big SI article about how Shannon was going to do it. Riecht was can’t miss. Golden had turned Temple around! Temple! He couldn’t miss in South Beach. And who can forget Manny Diaz. They wanted him so badly they were willing to embarass anothr program to get him. Forgive me if I say I’ll wait and see what Cristobol actually accomplishes.

 

[billybud]

Cristobal is doing well on the recruiting trail...

Just got a 5 star DE commit...and three 4 stars in July alone...

 

[traitor71]

It's the money and commitment that has changed there. They hired one legitimate coach in 20 years, and that was because Richt fell into their lap. It's no surprise he won a bowl game and got to a New Years day bowl before he abruptly retired. Cristobol is a fanatical recruiter, everyone knows that. He has people there who will write any check that he wants, from assistants to facilities, to whatever. He has a legitimate AD. That's how you win today. I don't know how the realignment works out, but they have certainly started operating in a big time manner. I'd be pretty surprised if this doesn't work out.

 

[UConnJim]

Cristobal is doing well on the recruiting trail...

Just got a 5 star DE commit...and three 4 stars in July alone...

Miami's problems have not been recruiting, they have been player development and coaching. Look at the recruiting classes from 2017 to 2022. Here are the rankings: 12, 8, 17, 11, 11, 13. Seems like Miami should be a top 10 to 15 team, but they aren't. Lots of 4*s with a few 5*s. And, it's not like Miami has been playing in the SEC West, they are in the ACC which has been down in recent years with the exception of Clemson.

Cristobal has been handed a loaded Miami team with a proven QB and a manageable schedule. I think Cristobal has a shot of building Miami into a consistent winner, but he better produce THIS year or I would be worried.

 

[traitor71]

Miami's problems have not been recruiting, they have been player development and coaching. Look at the recruiting classes from 2017 to 2022. Here are the rankings: 12, 8, 17, 11, 11, 13. Seems like Miami should be a top 10 to 15 team, but they aren't. Lots of 4*s with a few 5*s. And, it's not like Miami has been playing in the SEC West, they are in the ACC which has been down in recent years with the exception of Clemson.

Cristobal has been handed a loaded Miami team with a proven QB and a manageable schedule. I think Cristobal has a shot of building Miami into a consistent winner, but he better produce THIS year or I would be worried.

I wouldn't say they are loaded. The line of scrimmage is an issue for them, which is why he seems to be going after every offensive lineman under the sun. They have a weird roster. Really good in some areas, not so much in others. Skill positions, QB and secondary look really good. Everything else is a wait and see, I think anyway.

 

[UConnJim]

I wouldn't say they are loaded. The line of scrimmage is an issue for them, which is why he seems to be going after every offensive lineman under the sun. They have a weird roster. Really good in some areas, not so much in others. Skill positions, QB and secondary look really good. Everything else is a wait and see, I think anyway.

Exactly my point about Miami. The roster is loaded with highly ranked talent, but will they perform? In the past 4 recruiting classes, they have brought in on the DL: 1 5*, 7 4*, and 6 3*s, yet they added 5 transfer DL from the portal for this year. Recruiting (at least getting highly ranked kids), which is Cristobal's strength, is not the main problem at Miami.

As for expectations. Miami is expected to be ranked this year and I have seen rankings from 9 to 24. ESPN's FPI is predicting a 9-3 record and ranks them 9. Based on the talent on the roster including a good experienced QB, a manageable schedule, and a renewed commitment to football, I would think anything less than a final top 20 ranking will be considered a disappointment.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Cristobal icing and shelving TO chain at the U.

Seems to be implying defenders were focusing on trying to create TO's and getting chain over disciplined defensive plays.

 

[traitor71]

Cristobal icing and shelving TO chain at the U.

Seems to be implying defenders were focusing on trying to create TO's and getting chain over disciplined defensive plays.

They sure as hell never tackled anybody. Maybe they were too busy trying to strip the ball.

 

[traitor71]

Exactly my point about Miami. The roster is loaded with highly ranked talent, but will they perform? In the past 4 recruiting classes, they have brought in on the DL: 1 5*, 7 4*, and 6 3*s, yet they added 5 transfer DL from the portal for this year. Recruiting (at least getting highly ranked kids), which is Cristobal's strength, is not the main problem at Miami.

As for expectations. Miami is expected to be ranked this year and I have seen rankings from 9 to 24. ESPN's FPI is predicting a 9-3 record and ranks them 9. Based on the talent on the roster including a good experienced QB, a manageable schedule, and a renewed commitment to football, I would think anything less than a final top 20 ranking will be considered a disappointment.

I would agree they should finish in the top 20 and should probably win their division of their conference. I just don't think they are physical enough to be really good.