New Pod: Checking in With Alex Karaban

[Lambeau]

UCLA cannot compare with UConn--their players had to stay four years, so Kareem and Bill Walton, for example, won 5 titles, but today would never have gone to college at all. After the rules changed, they won nothing.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I fully believe kids need to put their personal interests over the team's (Donovan needed to enter the draft), but in Alex's case (a) I suspect he's not going to get a first round promise and thus wouldn't be turning down a guaranteed contract, (b) I genuinely believe he can increase his chance of sticking on an NBA roster by returning and rounding out his game, and (c) if it's a close call, I agree with you that the lure of making history (and earning his degree) may be the tiebreaker.

I realize I've got my selfish reasons for wanting him to come back but I just don't think he's going to lose out on anything by returning and I think he stands to gain a lot.

I said in another thread a few weeks ago that Karaban is really in a different mold than a lot of NBA prospects who are being drafted on potential.

A guy like Andre Drummond, who was immensely hyped but fairly underwhelming in 1 year here, stood to lose a lot if he came back and had another ho-hum season. It would have been reckless to come back.

Karaban's floor is really high, and NBA GMs know this. He's not going to be worse prospect next year. And, with NIL (and the prospect of graduating, for a family that places particular value on education), the opportunity cost of coming back is considerably lower.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Doubt he is back.

Alex clearly has had a plan since day 1. Bucked his Mom I believe to go to UConn, enrolled early to get a jump start. I'm sure he has a clear vision as to how this decision is going to play out. My guess is that unless someone said "Alex, you are not an NBA player", he will stay in the draft and make it work no matter what the outcome. He has enough talent, and tons of unmeasureables that will allow him to succeed against any odds.

Isn't it also plausible that his "plan" was to test the NBA draft waters after year 2, learn what he needs to work on, bust his ___ over the summer to be ready to come back and dominate in year 3 while finishing up his degree (in 3.5 years, since he came early)?

 

[bjc42]

Isn't it also plausible that his "plan" was to test the NBA draft waters after year 2, learn what he needs to work on, bust his ___ over the summer to be ready to come back and dominate in year 3 while finishing up his degree (in 3.5 years, since he came early)?

Not a bad point. he could be using it as critique so he can come back even better. But who knows at this point.

 

[MrSec238]

Isn't it also plausible that his "plan" was to test the NBA draft waters after year 2, learn what he needs to work on, bust his ___ over the summer to be ready to come back and dominate in year 3 while finishing up his degree (in 3.5 years, since he came early)?

And the combine can also make you a better player by having a new set of eyes on your game. Look at Newton. His combine and draft process run through was so valuable

 

[NJHusky]

Isn't it also plausible that his "plan" was to test the NBA draft waters after year 2, learn what he needs to work on, bust his ___ over the summer to be ready to come back and dominate in year 3 while finishing up his degree (in 3.5 years, since he came early)?

I'm also assuming if feedback is you need to do X better, then when he comes back next year with improved X, his value rises?

He's not getting taller, but he can get stronger & improve his quickness. What if he comes back, is the leading scorer on a FF team and shoots 45% from three....wouldn't that help his stock?

He'll do what's right for him and I'll be happy for him whichever option he chooses

 

[Tenspro2002]

I'm also assuming if feedback is you need to do X better, then when he comes back next year with improved X, his value rises?

He's not getting taller, but he can get stronger & improve his quickness. What if he comes back, is the leading scorer on a FF team and shoots 45% from three....wouldn't that help his stock?

He'll do what's right for him and I'll be happy for him whichever option he chooses

I suspect what the NBA will want to see more of is what he can do with the ball in his hands. He's a great shooter, passer, and is good at quick straight-line drives with a deceptively fast first step and the ability to power through smaller defenders, but I think they may want to see more creativity off the dribble.

That's something he may be able to do and be expected to do within our offense, if Hurley evolves to having interchangeability between 1-4 on offense, instead of 1-3, with Karaban as kind of a wild card.

 

[huskyharry]

If Alex leaves, we'll not only miss his basketball skills but also his leadership and mentoring ability. Sure hope he stays.

Really hoping that he returns...we need to keep the Brain Trust!

 

[Kembafan]

I think Karaban will be gone. Next year's draft class is much stronger, and he'll be a year older, so I don't think he'll get drafted higher than where he might this year, which seems to be mid second round. I've even seen him earlier on some boards.

 

[Fatroony5]

My gut says he comes back for one year. Happy for him either way, seems like a great young man. He’ll be successful in his career no doubt.

 

[Marat]

I saw an interview with Hurley and Andy Katz where Hurleysl comments on Alex and says if he's a consensus 1st round pick he won't return, but otherwise he should be back.

 

[Zonepress]

I think it would be in AK's best interest to stay. Not sure his current ability would really translate to the NBA. But he could once again be a key piece in UConn's run to another championship. It should be a no brainer that he just comes back. His ceiling in the NBA is Doug McDermott

Well if his ceiling is Doug mcdemott
That would be quite an accomplishment
As he has made in excess of 73 million so far
And with what’s left on his current contract
He will exceed 100 million
Imho AK would be hard pressed to get to that level

 

[jibsey]

Are we agreeing pretty much that UCLA WAS the preeminent blue blood underWooden? How long does that status last forever? It was10 years between 1975 and 1995, and now 19 years since then. So they restablished as a blue blood 19 years ago. Now?

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Are we agreeing pretty much that UCLA WAS the preeminent blue blood underWooden? How long does that status last forever? It was10 years between 1975 and 1995, and now 19 years since then. So they restablished as a blue blood 19 years ago. Now?

??????

You may want to check your math.

 

[Giddyup5]

I honestly hope Alex goes.

Why? Because that means he is getting good intel that he going to stick with a team and I want him to fulfill his NBA dream. He has already given everything I could have asked for and a million times more to UConn.

A few opinions I have.
1. It’s a historically weak draft.

2. He is going to be on a balanced scoring team next year. Sure, if he doesn’t have his slump I expect his percentages to go up. But, he basically was a 40/50/90 player this year. How much more can he show on a very balanced team next year?

3. Even if he does exceed expectations, does that move him into lottery selection? Obviously not. Does it move him into first round in a more talented draft? Probably not.

4. The only thing that dramatically changes things is NIL. Perhaps an argument can be made that NIL is the reason to stay compared to a 2nd round contract.

 

[LetsGoUC]

Alex is wise beyond his years...we are lucky to have him at UConn.

 

[Beaner]

I honestly hope Alex goes.

Why? Because that means he is getting good intel that he going to stick with a team and I want him to fulfill his NBA dream. He has already given everything I could have asked for and a million times more to UConn.

A few opinions I have.
1. It’s a historically weak draft.

2. He is going to be on a balanced scoring team next year. Sure, if he doesn’t have his slump I expect his percentages to go up. But, he basically was a 40/50/90 player this year. How much more can he show on a very balanced team next year?

3. Even if he does exceed expectations, does that move him into lottery selection? Obviously not. Does it move him into first round in a more talented draft? Probably not.

4. The only thing that dramatically changes things is NIL. Perhaps an argument can be made that NIL is the reason to stay compared to a 2nd round contract.

I keep reading how poor this year’s draft class is vs. 2025. How exactly does that shake out? Yes, next year will have shinier pieces atop the lottery in with the likes of Flagg, Bailey, Harper. Who’s to say they’ll pan out? Even if they live up to their billing, that’s strictly lottery talk. Honest question: how does this impact Alex’s draft status? I suspect the relative “weakness” of this year’s draft is more germane to Donovan and Stephon’s decisions than it is to Alex’s.

 

[HooperScooper]

Are we agreeing pretty much that UCLA WAS the preeminent blue blood underWooden? How long does that status last forever? It was10 years between 1975 and 1995, and now 19 years since then. So they restablished as a blue blood 19 years ago. Now?

 

[superjohn]

Agree with this 100%. I get so annoyed when I see fans try to argue that it's in a player's best interest to return when clearly that fan only cares about their college team getting better, but I really do believe that another year will actually boost Karaban's stock. Unless he gets information that he's got a good chance to be a top 35ish pick I believe he should come back.

That being said, Alex is a UConn legend and I will always be grateful for what he's done for this organization, even if he does decide to go.

I wish he was ready to play in the NBA but he's not. Even if he's not ready I would help push him out the door if he was a first round pick.

 

[cohenzone]

UCLA was dominant and they had a guy who figured out the team concept like Hurley has. Very unselfish. How many games in each run did UCLA have to win in a row for a title? Don’t wish to diminish them but it’s so much harder to do this now than it was then.

UCLA was in an era where freshmen couldn’t play varsity, nobody went pro early and transfers were much, much less common. In today’s era, Jabbar might be gone in one year, others in a year or two, the gap in years between Jabbar and Walton teams would larger. UCLA would likely not have done anything like they did, never mind the different rules for qualifying for and structure of the tournament which only allowed conference champs and among any at large, never a 2nd team from an auto bid conference

Don’t know why this reparagraphed It will be amazing if we 3 peat. The main plus Hurley has that Wooden didn’t is the portal which he didn’t need. In 2 years we will have lost 5 and maybe 6 players to the draft including 4 who would still be eligible next year counting Alex . a few portal departures of end of benchers and the graduation of 3 very productive transfers in 2 years. We are adding what seem to be good pieces out of the incoming group of frosh and portal and there be key roles for some of the returning sophs. A lot of new and a lot to live up to. I think we will See either what a difference Clingan made to our D including hoe his presence helped our perimeter defense, or we will see how Hurley designs a D without him. Hopefully a lot of fun. Speaking of UCLA, my son and family live very close to the campus which is having a mess with protesters tonight and pretty close to Wooden’s old haunts Pauley. I don’t think the protest has spilled off campus.

 

[NJHusky]

I wish he was ready to play in the NBA but he's not. Even if he's not ready I would help push him out the door if he was a first round pick.

Based on Hurleys interview with Katz, sounds like if AK is a first rounder he’s gone, but if a second should come back.

 

[Supes]

Based on Hurleys interview with Katz, sounds like if AK is a first rounder he’s gone, but if a second should come back.

Sanogo and AJJ left early last season despite not being consensus first round picks. Publicly at least Hurley was very supportive of their decisions. I wonder if the "AK is only leaving if he's a first rounder" comes from AK himself.

 

[mets1090]

Sanogo and AJJ left early last season despite not being consensus first round picks. Publicly at least Hurley was very supportive of their decisions. I wonder if the "AK is only leaving if he's a first rounder" comes from AK himself.

AJJ did have some assurance of some guaranteed money which is probably close enough. I think Hurley recently said something about how being on a two way contract is worse than staying in college and collecting NIL, but I can't find the interview now.

Keep in mind that with Sanogo not being from America he didn't have the NIL opportunities that someone like Karaban does, so the financial equation was very different for him.

 

[huskyharry]

AJJ did have some assurance of some guaranteed money which is probably close enough. I think Hurley recently said something about how being on a two way contract is worse than staying in college and collecting NIL, but I can't find the interview now.

Keep in mind that with Sanogo not being from America he didn't have the NIL opportunities that someone like Karaban does, so the financial equation was very different for him.

From a personal enjoyment perspective it is hard for me to believe that any of Jordan, Ajax and Adama enjoy last season more than they would have at UConn. $ isn’t everything, particularly when you can now make a handsome sum to remain in college.