New Mexico St Scouting Report

[auror]

Between this and @auror's writeup, am I wrong in thinking that UConn speed and transition game are keys here? I have to wonder if NMSt is really prepared to have Andre coming at them at 25mph every time we get a rebound. They also turn it over and we will push it every time they do.

I'm not sure we fully appreciate how weird this UConn team is and how difficult it will be for most teams to prepare for. Just a wide variety of guys who pose problems for the other team on both ends.

If they turn it over a decent number and we get in transition, I think we win comfortably. It's too hard to grind it out against us with our defense and extra possessions generated if you spot us free points. We don't always force that many turnovers, though, so it'll partly be up to how they handle our defense. They've had 10+ turnovers in each of the last 5 games. If that number gets up to around 15 against our speed & athleticism, it's probably over. Even if it gets to the 12-14 range, they'll likely have to successfully shut our offense down in a Creighton-esque manner to hang.

 

[Valleyfan]

@auror - echoing everyone else’s comments, this is an amazing and thorough assessment of the teams and the matchups. Kudos and thank you!

 

[awfuldan]

NMSU relies on their best player, Teddy Allen, more heavily than any other tournament team we've played this year.

A poster on their message board took issue with my post in this thread where I stated that it was hard to imagine Allen had faced defenders like Martin and Jackson in the WAC. I guess maybe I shouldn't have written my post in a way where it seemed like I was denigrating WAC defenders. Honestly I don't think there are very many teams in all of college basketball that have two wing defenders of that caliber in their starting line-up. Jackson is objectively one of the best athletes in the sport and is being evaluated as an NBA draft prospect largely based on his defensive abilities. Martin is strong and experienced and is coming off of a BET in which he succeeded in shutting down two 1st Team All Big East wings in Jared Rhoden (7 points on 13 shots) and Justin Moore (6 points on 9 shots).

Not trying to seem cocky and certainly don't want to overlook this team or their best player, but I really like our personnel on defense vs. Allen.

 

[auror]

Another interesting nugget: NMSU's coach is an incredible stickler for the 2 foul first half rule. If any of their guys gets 2 fouls, he will ALWAYS take them out and basically never bring them back in. I'm talking Jim Calhoun levels of 2 foul benching discipline, 95th percentile of all coaches.

We're pretty average at drawing fouls, so not sure this is something we can really exploit, but watch for it if it comes up in the game. Jackson should probably try to dunk on Teddy's head for 5 straight possessions.

 

[Kolumbo]

NMSU lost to Chicago State 2 weeks ago. How are Chicago State and Seattle U in the WAC. Chicago State is tiny.

repost: Chicago State is leaving the WAC and could fold due to financial troubles. But it did just beat NMSU.

What Will the Future Hold for Chicago State After the WAC? - Sports Enthusiasts

Editor's note: This article was updated on May 11, 2021 to correct the latest MEAC membership fee of $250,000. In addition, a follow-up article was posted in November 2023 discussing the possibility of Chicago State joining the Northeast Conference. Chicago State formally joined the NEC on...

sportsenthusiasts.net

 

[awfuldan]

Treasure trove of info and video here from a serious new face on UConn Twitter.

 

[elmcityboy]

Treasure trove of info and video here from a serious new face on UConn Twitter.

some absolutely awful defense being played in those clips, haha

 

[awfuldan]

some absolutely awful defense being played in those clips, haha

In the first clip, the drop coverage that the WAC big is playing is so far removed from our hard hedge that it looks like a different sport lol.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I do honestly wonder if NM St is going to just be overwhelmed by our athleticism.

Like, if we dominate the 1 on 1 matchups on our defensive end, do they have enough shot-making ability? Teddy Allen is only a 33% 3-point shooter, more Bouknight than Ray Allen.

 

[ConnEd]

Allen has a quick release, but he doesn't look to have a lot of hops. His step-back is going to be a lot more tightly contested by Martin, AJax, or any big hedging out on him. They may want to use whoever Cole is guarding to set screens for Allen, but, if they do, I'd expect RJ to come out hard on him and try to disrupt his dribble.

 

[DesertGnome]

So I cranked through a couple truncated games on YouTube and pored over their stats and lineups.

Season Summary
26-6 (13-4 WAC).
Shared WAC regular season crown and then won 2 games against 4th seed and 6th seed to win conference tournament.
Their Athletic Director gave an interview and admitted they expected to be a 13 or 14 seed. Snuck in as the last 12 seed according to the seedlist. 96/100 brackets on Bracket Matrix had them as a 13.

Best wins - N-Davidson by 11. @Washington State by 3, @Grand Canyon by 16, H-Utah Valley by 16, N-Abilene Christian by 14.
Worst losses - H- New Mexico by 7. @Chicago St by 2, H-Stephen F. Austin by 2, N-Utah St by 27, @Sam Houston St by 25.

Generally trending upward. Similar to how we had a late year strong stretch with 1 stinker in the middle (@Creighton), they have had 5 of their best 9 results over the last 7 games. But the other 2 games were among their worst games all year.

Players Summary
Experienced roster (like many teams this season). Last game their top minute getters were: 4th year, 5th year, 5th year, 5th year, 3rd year, 3rd year. And a 6th year guy gets minutes. No freshmen get any minutes at this point in the season.
Tall roster, especially for a mid-major. 6'4" and up in the starting lineup.

• Clayton Henry - 6'4", 201 - Mostly just a shooter/defender. 3&D guard, but doesn't shoot very often. Has him initiate offense like the PG, but doesn't really playmake. Comp - Mid-major Myles Cale.
• Sir'Jabari Rice- 6'4", 185 - Goes by just Jabari on broadcasts. Long, thin, wiry combo guard. 5 3s attempted per game, good shooter with a pure stroke. Can drive and finish but often looks to kick. 2nd Team All-WAC. Comp - Looks like Dejon Jarreau, plays more like Marcus Sasser.
• Teddy Allen - 6'6", 212 - On-ball wing. Stronger than fast. High usage. Mid range, driving, and iso game. Will chuck from 3, but only okay accuracy. Plays at his own speed. Bad, flat-footed defender. WAC Player of the Year. Comp - Jarron Cumberland.
• Johnny McCants - 6'7", 229 - Short roll and face up and attack. Active defensively. High effort. Always moving. Can pass a bit. Takes a couple 3's a game, but bad shooter. Good finisher at rim. WAC blocks leader, 2nd Team All-WAC. Comp - Shorter Isaiah Whaley. No seriously. Once I saw it, I couldn't un-see it. Their play style, accessory style, and even their movement mannerisms are oddly similar. Enjoyed watching him play.
• Will McNair - 6'10", 277 - Wide body. Slow. Doesn't do much. Passes out a lot when posting up. Scores mostly on big to big passes from McCants, off dump-offs from guards, or offensive rebounds. Comp - Wider, worse Joel Soriano.
  
  
• Donnie Tillman - Out injured. (20 minute per game guy). Was a starter to start the year but lost job due to injury, didn't get it back, hurt again now.
• Yuat Alok - 6'11, 211 - Deep bench rebounder/shot blocker. Bit undersized to play C. 25 years old. Via JuCo, TCU, UCF, Coppin St, NMSU.
• Mike Peake - 6'7", 218 - Good on the offensive boards, can protect the rim a bit, can shoot from 3 a bit.
• Nate Pryor (6'3", 4th year) and Mario McKinney (6'1", 3rd year) split up the backup guard minutes and I have found no pattern for how those minutes are distributed. Seems random. Both incredibly turnover prone, neither can shoot. Coach would probably prefer to play neither, but neither Jabari or Clayton are really PGs.

I was going to do a whole section on lineups, but the plus/minus and impact data all basically comes down to: Rice, Allen, and McCants are very good and very important. Everyone else is replaceable and not as good. Rice had a couple bad games over the last 30 days due to a back injury, but seemed fully healthy in the conference tournament.

Coach & Style of Play Summary
Chris Jans - 5th season at NMSU - 121-31, 4* tournament appearances (*2020 projected autobid), 0-2 NCAA record, both losses as 12 seeds.

• Peculiarly, they play slow on offense (281st), but fast on defense (75th). Defense isn't caused by press or pressure, as they don't really force turnovers and almost never steal the ball.
  • In an interview, Jans seemed to hint that they give up some non-optimal shots easily in an effort to goad offenses into them.
• They play mostly man to man defense, but mix in zones somewhat frequently, both 1-3-1 and 2-3. Opponents tend to take a lot of off the dribble 3's against them (317th 3PA rate, but low opponent assist rate 110th... these usually correlate, especially for zone Ds).
• They employ a number of ball screen defenses and switch up on the fly (high hedge, ice, force hand, show, switch, drop) based on opponent scheme, opponent personnel, and their own personnel. In the SFA game they did employ lots of drop coverage like Creighton did against us, parking McNair in the paint. Like us, SFA plays 2 or 3 non-threatening shooters. Often McCants plays free safety weakside in the paint way off non-shooters. I expect them to employ similar tactics as Creighton, but hopefully not having Kalkbrenner makes a difference. Or we solve it this week in practice.
• They will double the post at times on defense big to big.
• They take an above average amount of 3's, but shoot only average on them. (105th in attempt rate, 216th in accuracy, almost median 170th in % of points from 3's). Rice and Allen take a lot of off the dribble 3's.
• They throw the ball to the other team quite a bit (313th), both just being careless, and sometimes forcing things (Allen especially guilty of this). Partially caused by not having a true PG worth playing.
• Good offensive rebounding team (39th - McNahir, McCants, and Peake especially)
• They gang rebound, but Teddy Allen often rips and runs in a similar manner (just much slower) to Andre Jackson.

Shot Charts
UConn offense vs. New Mexico defense (top)
New Mexico offense vs. UConn defense (bottom)

One interesting thing to note is that the corners is a weakspot of our defense, but they do not shoot well or often from these spots. We hope that part of SFA's success guarding the paint is due to the competition level, and/or that our volume (offensive rebounding, turnovers forced,) will make up for low efficiency

12 minute video of WAC CHAMPIONSHIP game highlights worth watching.

 

[Pudge]

12 minute video of WAC CHAMPIONSHIP game highlights worth watching.

To my eyes ... that is a better quality ball (with better talent) than many of the mid major conferences around us. LIKE? NEC, Patriot, America East, CAA, MAAC. Certainly not to the level of the Atlantic 10. Maybe they are better than the MAC - which is what I watch to see how Buffalo is doing. I was impressed by both Abilene Christian and NM State Good athletes good talent. ] Good Defense and running. Solid size on both teams. Better than I expected.

Note: NM State is leaving the WAC. That collaborative has 6 Texas universities; 2 Utah; Cal Baptist; Arizona's vendor U - Grand Canyon U; Seattle U. Losing Sam Houston with NM State. Interesting growth corridor.

 

[HooperScooper]

12 minute video of WAC CHAMPIONSHIP game highlights worth watching.

Wow, they never miss!

By the way, how were both teams 14-4 in their conference but New Mexico State was the 1 seed and Abilene Christian was the 6 seed?

 

[navery12]

Wow, they never miss!

By the way, how were both teams 14-4 in their conference but New Mexico State was the 1 seed and Abilene Christian was the 6 seed?

Misprint, or whatever it would be called with a typo on the scorebug. Abilene was 11-7

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Good work, @auror!

Here’s the blurb I wrote in my March Madness google doc:

Chris Jans had a HUGE coup w/ Henry, McCants and Tillman (he’s injured now) sticking around for a fifth year. Teddy Allen is a HUGE addition to an already deep team. Good OOC wins against Washington State, Davidson, UC Irvine, LMU. WAC has better than most years (adding SFA, Abiline, Sam Houston State helped) so WAC hasn’t been as much as a cakewalk as most years.

Team is known historically for their rebounding, shooting threes. They’ve rebounded this year (39th OR), but 3P ratio is more balanced (104th). Get to line well (52nd) and great 2p% (36rd).

Top-30 in BOTH 2p% and 3p% D. Top-100 in defensive rebounding and preventing FTs. Clayton Henry is their best defender. They don’t steal the ball, but they block shots. Good job causing ISO, which is a Jans staple (110th).