New ESPN Bracketology

[LoTrader]

Pac12 is loaded with UCLA, Utah, Stanford, Arizona, and Colorado vying in the First Division. USC, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington State, and Washington could push into the top tier with a decent road record. All of them will be tough at home for everybody. Only Cal and AZ State appear to be road gimmes but who can even say that?
I expect the top teams, including the champion, will have multiple conference losses. So how does that play with the Committee?

@Floridaduck, agree with your position that top teams will have multiple conference losses. Also agree with the First Division teams (but I would substitute WSU for UA). I won't be surprised if a team in the 2nd Division ends up in the First Division at end of conference play. Going to be a wild PAC-12 season.

 

[Alydar]

LSU won't be a 1 seed even if they go undefeated. The non conference is still that bad. They will probably be a 3-4 seed as evidenced by last year committee. They will be good but still behind SC/TN in SEC play and thats not gonna cut it for seeding purposes

UCONN is running away with the title this year provided Paige or Fudd don't go out to injury.

If LSU goes undefeated they will be a one seed. Going into the post season last year their signature wins were against Tenn and Ark. The only elite team they played was SCar and they were never in the game.
There is no way the committee chairman will make an undefeated SEC champion anything but a 1 seed. No matter what their SOS is.

 

[The deacon]

None of us can forget Charlie’s article last year.

Molly Davis (transfer from Central Michigan) will give Iowa another shooter and scorer; how will mid-major Lou Lopez-Senechal’s game translate to the national stage?

As @MilfordHusky said at the time, UConn has only questions while everybody else has answers.

I agree with the intent of your post, UConnCat, but the Davis/Lou examples aren't your best...

Molly did give Iowa another good shooter (and backup point guard), but her role was not often noticed because she was playing behind Caitlin Clark.

Lou's arrival was not heralded by much of anyone until Geno raved about her; even then, Lou had the chance to become a standout because of injuries to teammates. Under healthier circumstances, we might still be wondering just how good Lou could be.

That said, yup, you're right about Charlie.

 

[Alydar]

I agree with the intent of your post, UConnCat, but the Davis/Lou examples aren't your best...

Molly did give Iowa another good shooter (and backup point guard), but her role was not often noticed because she was playing behind Caitlin Clark.

Lou's arrival was not heralded by much of anyone until Geno raved about her; even then, Lou had the chance to become a standout because of injuries to teammates. Under healthier circumstances, we might still be wondering just how good Lou could be.

That said, yup, you're right about Charlie.

Compare Lou to Morrow. Morrow has been playing in the BE, a conference that is considered considerably below P-5 level and yet no one in the media suggested that the move up will pose even a sliver of trouble. She is expected to fit right into the rotation if not be an immediate starter. I haven't read a single doubt of that.
Senechal came from an even smaller conference but the difference between it and the BE wasn't that large if UConn is removed from the equation. Senechal was the unanimous POY in the conference, putting up outstanding stats and dragging her team into the NCAA's her 4th year. And yet the entirety of the media comments were filled with doubts about her moving up to the BE and the need for her to show everyone she could play. That's the result of lazy journalism.

It's easy to just accept the media's version of who is who, Good information about players and teams is hard to get, but the media has become little more than a huge reality show where the winner was determined based on their public appeal.

 

[FormerCTrez]

So we are in UConn's bracket as a second seed. My, my my. I guess it's set in stone now. No final four .

@visitingcock, I don’t believe that for a minute. Also, I don’t know why almost everyone thinks the Gamecocks have suddenly lost their presence amongst the great teams. Yes, your Fab Five graduated last year, but, the returnees are no sleepers, and Dawn Staley will make sure everyone’s up to speed come tournament time. As a UConn fan I‘d like to see both teams at the Final Four, possibly playing for the championship — with UConn winning. No repeat of 2022!!!
In all seriousness, your team will be good this year, and they’ll go far in the tournament.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I won't be surprised if South Carolina has the resume of a 2-3 seed but plays like a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. We have so much youth and inexperience that I suspect we'll have a few unexpected losses as the chemistry and experience is coming along. Dawn will have them humming like a well-oiled machine by season's end.

My guess is that South Carolina is either dominant right out the gate or never gets it totally together.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Compare Lou to Morrow. Morrow has been playing in the BE, a conference that is considered considerably below P-5 level and yet no one in the media suggested that the move up will pose even a sliver of trouble. She is expected to fit right into the rotation if not be an immediate starter. I haven't read a single doubt of that.
Senechal came from an even smaller conference but the difference between it and the BE wasn't that large if UConn is removed from the equation. Senechal was the unanimous POY in the conference, putting up outstanding stats and dragging her team into the NCAA's her 4th year. And yet the entirety of the media comments were filled with doubts about her moving up to the BE and the need for her to show everyone she could play. That's the result of lazy journalism.

It's easy to just accept the media's version of who is who, Good information about players and teams is hard to get, but the media has become little more than a huge reality show where the winner was determined based on their public appeal.

I suspect that Lou's efficiency was a lot better but I may have misremembered.

 

[Alydar]

I suspect that Lou's efficiency was a lot better but I may have misremembered.

Lou was shooting 60/50/90 for the first half of the season which was crazy seeing how she was the primary outside shooter. Senechal and Edwards' efficiency had something to do with Muhl setting the school's assist record.

 

[visitingcock]

My guess is that South Carolina is either dominant right out the gate or never gets it totally together.

I disagree. I see us taking some lumps in 2023 but pulling it together in 2024 and down the stretch as our raw talent gains experience. We might not win the SEC season, but we will be hard to beat in the SEC tournament in Greenville

Pretty Realistic expectation elite 8. We have that level of (raw) talent.
Not too unrealistic hope Final Four
Cause I’m a fan(atic) let’s win it all.

 

[Alydar]

I disagree. I see us taking some lumps in 2023 but pulling it together in 2024 and down the stretch as our raw talent gains experience. We might not win the SEC season, but we will be hard to beat in the SEC tournament in Greenville

Pretty Realistic expectation elite 8. We have that level of (raw) talent.
Not too unrealistic hope Final Four
Cause I’m a fan(atic) let’s win it all.

Dawn will have a great defensive team no matter what. That's what she's done since she arrived there. SCar will be a tough matchup for LSU because SCar's inside defense is better than LSU's inside offense, (which is most of LSU's offense).

 

[JDuro]

My guess is that South Carolina is either dominant right out the gate or never gets it totally together.

I see Elite 8 as this team’s floor. The level the program is recruiting at now, this team is far more talented then the depleted ‘18-‘19 team that was still able to get to the second week of the NCAAT.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I disagree. I see us taking some lumps in 2023 but pulling it together in 2024 and down the stretch as our raw talent gains experience. We might not win the SEC season, but we will be hard to beat in the SEC tournament in Greenville

Pretty Realistic expectation elite 8. We have that level of (raw) talent.
Not too unrealistic hope Final Four
Cause I’m a fan(atic) let’s win it all.

I think we're very experienced and either we got the players or we don't.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I see Elite 8 as this team’s floor. The level the program is recruiting at now, this team is far more talented then the depleted ‘18-‘19 team that was still able to get to the second week of the NCAAT.

I tend to agree.

That team wasn't nearly as talented. And was injured as well.

 

[visitingcock]

I think we're very experienced and either we got the players or we don't.

We have just one part time starter returning in Raven. That’s it.

Kamilla got some serious PT as a backup. (can she avoid foul trouble and give us 30 minutes per game?)

Tehina has some experience but not in Dawn’s system.

Bree got some limited serious PT against opponents’ starters. Not a lot - but some.

Ashlynn got very limited minutes against opposing starters. Sania got even fewer. Both of them primarily saw mop up duty.

Chloe saw only a few mop up minutes for half a season. Walker played a lot of minutes against poor competition - at a JC. She didn’t get many minutes at Rutgers.

The three remaining players are true freshmen with zero experience.

That’s not “very experienced” in my book. I think we will take some lumps in the “ preseason,” non-conference portion of our schedule. That’s okay. We lost 5 games in 20/21 and still got a 1-seed. I can even live with a two seed if we have jelled by the end of the season. Hopefully, as the SEC tournament champs. (Aren’t we 8-1 in tournaments held in Greenville? Kim’s gonna be working on relocating future tournaments)

 

[bballnut90]

We have just one part time starter returning in Raven. That’s it.

Kamilla got some serious PT as a backup. (can she avoid foul trouble and give us 30 minutes per game?)

Tehina has some experience but not in Dawn’s system.

Bree got some limited serious PT against opponents’ starters. Not a lot - but some.

Ashlynn got very limited minutes against opposing starters. Sania got even fewer. Both of them primarily saw mop up duty.

Chloe saw only a few mop up minutes for half a season. Walker played a lot of minutes against poor competition - at a JC. She didn’t get many minutes at Rutgers.

The three remaining players are true freshmen with zero experience.

That’s not “very experienced” in my book. I think we will take some lumps in the “ preseason,” non-conference portion of our schedule. That’s okay. We lost 5 games in 20/21 and still got a 1-seed. I can even live with a two seed if we have jelled by the end of the season. Hopefully, as the SEC tournament champs. (Aren’t we 8-1 in tournaments held in Greenville? Kim’s gonna be working on relocating future tournaments)

South Carolina has a ton of potential though it’ll take time to get situated. There are few bigs in the country I’d take over Cardoso—she’s a great rebounder and finisher inside, and was markedly better last year than as a sophomore. I could see her effectively as a more mobile Teaira McCowan for SC. Raven Johnson quietly put together a really nice 2nd half of the season as well for you guys—she’s an excellent decision maker and the offense will shift from being pound the ball inside to involving more perimeter shooters. I’d also look for her to call her own number more. Everyone remembers Clark shooing her off, but once Johnson started taking the 3s, she hit them. Having a very good point guard, an elite post and athletic support players is a recipe for success, and SC looks like a well built team heading into next year. They also have one of the best coaches in the country in Dawn and the players on the roster to be an elite level defensive team. I think they’re still a title contender and would put them at #3 or #4 going into next season. I’m not sold on UCLA like so many are, and I think SC will prove to be a better program than Ohio State.

A side tangent, but you gotta wonder if some of the freshies regret going pro this year. Beal didn’t make a roster and would’ve been a much bigger presence for SC as a 5th year player, Amihere would’ve started this year too, etc.

 

[SCspur]

We have just one part time starter returning in Raven. That’s it.

Kamilla got some serious PT as a backup. (can she avoid foul trouble and give us 30 minutes per game?)

Tehina has some experience but not in Dawn’s system.

Bree got some limited serious PT against opponents’ starters. Not a lot - but some.

Ashlynn got very limited minutes against opposing starters. Sania got even fewer. Both of them primarily saw mop up duty.

Chloe saw only a few mop up minutes for half a season. Walker played a lot of minutes against poor competition - at a JC. She didn’t get many minutes at Rutgers.

The three remaining players are true freshmen with zero experience.

That’s not “very experienced” in my book. I think we will take some lumps in the “ preseason,” non-conference portion of our schedule. That’s okay. We lost 5 games in 20/21 and still got a 1-seed. I can even live with a two seed if we have jelled by the end of the season. Hopefully, as the SEC tournament champs. (Aren’t we 8-1 in tournaments held in Greenville? Kim’s gonna be working on relocating future tournaments)

@Gamecockfan77
Both of you seem to have some reservations on SC to start the season. Of the Non conference schedule which game(s) do you’ll see SC losing?

vs ND (Paris)
vs MD
vs SD St
@ NC
@ Duke
vs Utah
@ ECU
vs UConn

These are SC’s toughest non conference matchups. I didn’t list the other games because they should win those with relative ease. But who do you think will present problems for SC? Obvious answer for me is UConn but that game isn’t until February. It is my understanding that ND will be without Miles to start the season so that makes that game just a little easier. NC and Utah will be tough but personally I see SC winning both. IMO if SC gets past ND I think they’ll be undefeated going into conference play. The LSU and UConn games will be their toughest to me.

 

[visitingcock]

@Gamecockfan77
Both of you seem to have some reservations on SC to start the season. Of the Non conference schedule which game(s) do you’ll see SC losing?

vs ND (Paris)
vs MD
vs SD St
@ NC
@ Duke
vs Utah
@ ECU
vs UConn

These are SC’s toughest non conference matchups. I didn’t list the other games because they should win those with relative ease. But who do you think will present problems for SC? Obvious answer for me is UConn but that game isn’t until February. It is my understanding that ND will be without Miles to start the season so that makes that game just a little easier. NC and Utah will be tough but personally I see SC winning both. IMO if SC gets past ND I think they’ll be undefeated going into conference play. The LSU and UConn games will be their toughest to me.

Toughest to easiest;
LSU on the road Not early
UConn at home not early

Early maybe half of these

Notre Dame in Paris
UNC on the road
Duke on the road
Utah at home ( I don’t think they are ready for the crowd they will draw)

I don’t foresee a loss to SDS at home or to ECU on the road but I could see one SEC upset by an Ole Miss or someone we sleep on.

Basically, I see two early non/con losses, 2 conference losses. Probably a loss to UConn ( but they won’t want a tournament rematch at/near the end.) 5 total losses going in to the tourney.

Against one of the toughest schedules in the country - I’ll take 5 even 6 regular season losses while we learn

 

[Gamecockfan77]

We have just one part time starter returning in Raven. That’s it.

Kamilla got some serious PT as a backup. (can she avoid foul trouble and give us 30 minutes per game?)

Tehina has some experience but not in Dawn’s system.

Bree got some limited serious PT against opponents’ starters. Not a lot - but some.

Ashlynn got very limited minutes against opposing starters. Sania got even fewer. Both of them primarily saw mop up duty.

Chloe saw only a few mop up minutes for half a season. Walker played a lot of minutes against poor competition - at a JC. She didn’t get many minutes at Rutgers.

The three remaining players are true freshmen with zero experience.

That’s not “very experienced” in my book. I think we will take some lumps in the “ preseason,” non-conference portion of our schedule. That’s okay. We lost 5 games in 20/21 and still got a 1-seed. I can even live with a two seed if we have jelled by the end of the season. Hopefully, as the SEC tournament champs. (Aren’t we 8-1 in tournaments held in Greenville? Kim’s gonna be working on relocating future tournaments)

I don't think the lack of starts really matters that much. Tons of experience in the core. And lots of talent.

I don't anticipate the freshmen playing much aside from perhaps Fulwiley.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

@Gamecockfan77
Both of you seem to have some reservations on SC to start the season. Of the Non conference schedule which game(s) do you’ll see SC losing?

vs ND (Paris)
vs MD
vs SD St
@ NC
@ Duke
vs Utah
@ ECU
vs UConn

These are SC’s toughest non conference matchups. I didn’t list the other games because they should win those with relative ease. But who do you think will present problems for SC? Obvious answer for me is UConn but that game isn’t until February. It is my understanding that ND will be without Miles to start the season so that makes that game just a little easier. NC and Utah will be tough but personally I see SC winning both. IMO if SC gets past ND I think they’ll be undefeated going into conference play. The LSU and UConn games will be their toughest to me.

I don't have too many reservations.

I think South Carolina is underrated. I think Cardoso is a likely All American and POY candidate.

But if the national folks are accurate about it and I'm certainly biased then it will probably be obvious early on that I'm off about what I think our roster is.

The league I think potentially is better than it has been. But it's a lot of paper rosters.

 

[SCspur]

Toughest to easiest;
LSU on the road Not early
UConn at home not early

Early maybe half of these

Notre Dame in Paris
UNC on the road
Duke on the road
Utah at home ( I don’t think they are ready for the crowd they will draw)

I don’t foresee a loss to SDS at home or to ECU on the road but I could see one SEC upset by an Ole Miss or someone we sleep on.

Basically, I see two early non/con losses, 2 conference losses. Probably a loss to UConn ( but they won’t want a tournament rematch at/near the end.) 5 total losses going in to the tourney.

Against one of the toughest schedules in the country - I’ll take 5 even 6 regular season losses while we learn

It’s your opinion so I have no choice but to respect it.

I think ND will be without Miles, do you think they’ll still be as tough? I thought the matchup was a little even with her playing and healthy but without her SC should have an advantage? Especially down low.

You think Duke will be tougher than Utah? Also that Utah game will be in Connecticut before a partisan crowd (I expect SC to have more fans) so I’m not sure if crowd will be a factor but I do think they’re a tough matchup. Different kind of team they need to play.

I think UNC matches up well but I think Coaching experience and overall talent will be the edge for SC in that one. First true road game so definitely will be a huge confidence boost if they win.

Not sold on Duke. I don’t think they have the Depth or Size to compete with SC. They’re normally good on defense so I expect to see more of that but I don’t think they’ll be able to score much on SC.

I think MD is a tough game overlooked. Even at home. They’ve played SC the most of any non SEC school past couple seasons and Brenda is familiar with our style. They’re undersized but still talented. IMO If SC goes 2-0 to start the season they’ll be undefeated going into conference play. A lot hinges on those first two games for me.

 

[UConnCat]

I agree with the intent of your post, UConnCat, but the Davis/Lou examples aren't your best...

Molly did give Iowa another good shooter (and backup point guard), but her role was not often noticed because she was playing behind Caitlin Clark.

Lou's arrival was not heralded by much of anyone until Geno raved about her; even then, Lou had the chance to become a standout because of injuries to teammates. Under healthier circumstances, we might still be wondering just how good Lou could be.

That said, yup, you're right about Charlie.

Thanks but I'll stand by my comparison.

Molly Davis averaged less than 2 baskets a game and 3.8 ppg. Honestly, in the games I watched she looked completely over-matched. She won't be drafted.

As for Lou, I guarantee you that many more coaches from top programs were interested in Lou than they were Molly Davis when both were in the portal.

Injuries helped give Lou more minutes but she would have had plenty of opportunity to shine even if Paige had been healthy. She was just too talented.

 

[visitingcock]

It’s your opinion so I have no choice but to respect it.

I think ND will be without Miles, do you think they’ll still be as tough? I thought the matchup was a little even with her playing and healthy but without her SC should have an advantage? Especially down low.

You think Duke will be tougher than Utah? Also that Utah game will be in Connecticut before a partisan crowd (I expect SC to have more fans) so I’m not sure if crowd will be a factor but I do think they’re a tough matchup. Different kind of team they need to play.

I think UNC matches up well but I think Coaching experience and overall talent will be the edge for SC in that one. First true road game so definitely will be a huge confidence boost if they win.

Not sold on Duke. I don’t think they have the Depth or Size to compete with SC. They’re normally good on defense so I expect to see more of that but I don’t think they’ll be able to score much on SC.

I think MD is a tough game overlooked. Even at home. They’ve played SC the most of any non SEC school past couple seasons and Brenda is familiar with our style. They’re undersized but still talented. IMO If SC goes 2-0 to start the season they’ll be undefeated going into conference play. A lot hinges on those first two games for me.

I mistakenly thought the Utah game was in Columbia. You are correct, the Utah game at a neutral site should be tougher than Duke.

I really think the trip to Paris is going to be a tough one. It's the where and language that's why. At least Notre Dame has one player, Prosper, who is comfortable with the language. I don't know if anybody will be comfortable with what we in our "respect/disrespect" American society will react to what we consider Parisian "rudeness." No New Yorkers on our team.

Maryland? Brenda is a solid coach, but I've just never viewed them as ready to do what the do best against Dawn's defense: run and gun - especially in Columbia. No, I don't think we'll slaughter them. We'll just slow them down and get them frustrated enough to take it to them hard in the 4th.

But, what do I really know?

 

[sharris25]

I mistakenly thought the Utah game was in Columbia. You are correct, the Utah game at a neutral site should be tougher than Duke.

I really think the trip to Paris is going to be a tough one. It's the where and language that's why. At least Notre Dame has one player, Prosper, who is comfortable with the language. I don't know if anybody will be comfortable with what we in our "respect/disrespect" American society will react to what we consider Parisian "rudeness." No New Yorkers on our team.

Maryland? Brenda is a solid coach, but I've just never viewed them as ready to do what the do best against Dawn's defense: run and gun - especially in Columbia. No, I don't think we'll slaughter them. We'll just slow them down and get them frustrated enough to take it to them hard in the 4th.

But, what do I really know?

Are you serious about the culture language comment. I would ask you to check the nubmer of players on our team that have traveled and played internationally already through USA Basketball. I will help a litte. Cardoso, R. Johnson, S. Feagin, Pao Pao, Kitts, Johnson, . I see may be 3 to 4 losses if that occurs. This team is extremely talented and still boast the largest number of high school All Americans in the NCAA

 

[visitingcock]

Are you serious about the culture language comment. I would ask you to check the nubmer of players on our team that have traveled and played internationally already through USA Basketball. I will help a litte. Cardoso, R. Johnson, S. Feagin, Pao Pao, Kitts, Johnson, . I see may be 3 to 4 losses if that occurs. This team is extremely talented and still boast the largest number of high school All Americans in the NCAA

I see our radical firebrand is back as the season nears. jk

I was really only cracking on the "friendliness" of Paris and Parisians. forgive me @From France . (I love people in the smaller French cities and countryside) Yeah, all high level wbb players are world travellers, but Prosper speaks the language like a . . . well . . . a member of a former colony. Nah, I understand she speaks French well.

I see 3 to 5 losses - and wont mind at all as long as each loss is part of a learning process that contributes to team growth in the post-season.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I mistakenly thought the Utah game was in Columbia. You are correct, the Utah game at a neutral site should be tougher than Duke.

I really think the trip to Paris is going to be a tough one. It's the where and language that's why. At least Notre Dame has one player, Prosper, who is comfortable with the language. I don't know if anybody will be comfortable with what we in our "respect/disrespect" American society will react to what we consider Parisian "rudeness." No New Yorkers on our team.

Maryland? Brenda is a solid coach, but I've just never viewed them as ready to do what the do best against Dawn's defense: run and gun - especially in Columbia. No, I don't think we'll slaughter them. We'll just slow them down and get them frustrated enough to take it to them hard in the 4th.

But, what do I really know?

I’m a Big fan of some of the ND players. As for PG, probably early for Hidalgo to shine, but wouldn’t put it past her.