New Charts - New Thoughts | The Boneyard

New Charts - New Thoughts

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jleves

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So I decided to make a chart to show how badly Alex is playing and I was wrong - he just isn't getting enough minutes. I normalized points, boards and turnovers to 40 minutes and I was surprised with the results.
bigs.jpg


Seems pretty clear to me that Alex should be getting a lot more than 19 minutes a game. He's obviously our second most productive big man. He does have to get those turnovers down - they all do with the exception of Daniels. I would like to see Alex and Andre getting 30 minutes and Olander and Roscoe getting the rest.

It's a little less clear who should be getting minutes at the three spot. Roscoe is the best rebounder, but Daniels is probably the better choice based on the numbers. 25 Daniels, 10 Giffey, 5 Smith? It's kind of odd that Roscoe just doesn't have a position on this team after being so important last year. There are better options at the 4 spot and better options at the 3 spot.

Then I decided to look at Alex and Roscoe compared to last year. This is what it looks like:
alexroscoecomp.jpg


Alex is a little down from last year, but not as much as I expected. He has to get the turnovers under 2. I can understand the rebounds being down a bit with Andre getting a lot compared to what Chuck got. Roscoes points are down a bit and I really think he can get to where he was if he slows down a little and goes up more balanced and strong. Again, too many turnovers. It's a problem this year that needs to be fixed.

I realize this doesn't take into account lots of other things - defense, screens, etc. But I really think the rotations need to be established and locked down. If Roscoe could just start shooting like he did early last year (remember when he was good from three?), he's the obvious choice at the three, but as it stands now, Daniels should be getting the majority of the minutes. Alex and Andre likewise.
 

tykurez

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I think generally, numbers decline the more minutes you get, so I'm not sure simply adjusting them for 40 minutes works ... but I think the premise of him needing more minutes is correct if for no other reason than his confidence/rhythm.

We've seen it time and time again ... Alex picks up a quick foul or turnover, gets yanked, sulks towards the sideline, and never recovers. His constant shuffling has played with his confidence and rhythm. Some players are able to get through that, but it's fairly obvious that Alex isn't that type of kid.

So there's a double edged sword really ... let the kid play through his struggles, which are currently enormous, and hope he works through them. Or continue to shuffle him in and out for a better option at the risk of him continuing to free fall.
 

UChusky916

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I think Alex needs more minutes too. He's gotta build up some confidence and show some semblance of what he was last year. If we don't have Alex playing well in March, I'm not sure how far this team can go.
I'm really hoping he comes around.
 
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