NET Rankings and NCAA bubble hypothetical

[RayRay]

As of the most recent NET rankings, our next 3 games are against #45 Cincy, #68 SMU on the road, and #47 Memphis. We also have #32 Houston coming up in March at home, and the rest of the teams should all be winnable, with maybe Temple on the road being a tough one. IF we win out, big if, and we end up top 3 in the conference, and end up getting to the AAC championship game, win or lose, do we sneak in on the bubble? I have no idea how to calculate NET, but given those 4 NET opponents we have, plus beating a bunch of teams we are supposed to beat, I hope that's enough.

Thoughts? We would end up 23-11 if that scenario played out and we lost in the championship game. Obviously if we win we are in.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

We’d be 23-11 with some nice wins. Definitely bubble

 

[LIuconn]

I'm here for all potential NCAA talk. Get it done, Danny!

 

[Chin Diesel]

Put me in the camp if UConn's next loss is AAC championship game, they will be in NCAA.

 

[pj]

doesn't matter, no matter how we finish, the conference tournament is very winnable. We just have to keep improving.

 

[wheelerdog]

Can we win Sunday first?

 

[spudzj6]

All hypotheticals you list work out, we are 100% on the bubble, and if enough bubble teams exist from major conferences, we may be out. Think the committee sees the “hot” teams going into March, though, even if they say full body of work.

regardless, can’t see us winning out. But not a single team is unbeatable, and no one should want to face UConn in the AACT

 

[BNich]

One game at a time folks.....one game at a time. Let's Go Huskies!!!!!!

 

[Ts5034]

We’d be 23-11 with some nice wins. Definitely bubble

Thats why I wish we just had a couple of those tough losses back, we all do obviously. In a year like this where there are no dominant teams, these are the years where you like your chances of making a little run in the tournament.

 

[HuskyBoi]

ONE GAME AT A TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
when will the board learn.

In Hurley we trust

 

[CTBasketball]

Let's just smack Cincinnati around then figure it out. 13-10 sounds nicer than 12-11.

 

[Captbluefin]

HUGE task at hand this weekend. We need to shut Cumberland down before any of this talk

 

[auror]

Bart Torvik has a tournament prediction tool.

Winning out and reaching the semis or finals and losing (beating Temple, Tulsa, and possibly Cincy en route) puts us at an estimated NET of 58 and on the wrong side of the bubble within the first 6 or so out. ~25% chance of an at-large.

But scoring margin matters for NET, so it would depend on our margins in those games. And in a real life version of that hypothetical, our winning streak might boost our profile a bit above and beyond the numbers, too.

 

[Get a Job]

Bart Torvik has a tournament prediction tool.

Winning out and reaching the semis or finals and losing (beating Temple, Tulsa, and possibly Cincy en route) puts us at an estimated NET of 58 and on the wrong side of the bubble within the first 6 or so out. ~25% chance of an at-large.

But scoring margin matters for NET, so it would depend on our margins in those games. And in a real life version of that hypothetical, our winning streak might boost our profile a bit above and beyond the numbers, too.

Hard to imagine our NET would only rise 11 spots in that scenario. Not questioning you; just surprised.

 

[RayRay]

Bart Torvik has a tournament prediction tool.

Winning out and reaching the semis or finals and losing (beating Temple, Tulsa, and possibly Cincy en route) puts us at an estimated NET of 58 and on the wrong side of the bubble within the first 6 or so out. ~25% chance of an at-large.

But scoring margin matters for NET, so it would depend on our margins in those games. And in a real life version of that hypothetical, our winning streak might boost our profile a bit above and beyond the numbers, too.

Thanks for posting that. That's crazy to me that if we win out and lose in the finals, that our NET ranking only jumps 11 spots. That's unfortunate, but you're right, NCAA usually does seem to look at teams that got hot late.

 

[uconngb]

As of the most recent NET rankings, our next 3 games are against #45 Cincy, #68 SMU on the road, and #47 Memphis. We also have #32 Houston coming up in March at home, and the rest of the teams should all be winnable, with maybe Temple on the road being a tough one. IF we win out, big if, and we end up top 3 in the conference, and end up getting to the AAC championship game, win or lose, do we sneak in on the bubble? I have no idea how to calculate NET, but given those 4 NET opponents we have, plus beating a bunch of teams we are supposed to beat, I hope that's enough.

Thoughts? We would end up 23-11 if that scenario played out and we lost in the championship game. Obviously if we win we are in.

We win one game on the road and now we’re a tourney team??? I’m all for optimism, but my god.

 

[4in16]

HUGE task at hand this weekend. We need to shut Cumberland down before any of this talk

And the tall white dude. The guy crushed us last time out, although we could use the Tulsa method shoot well from 3, rebound and 2nd chance points and shut down all but one player.

 

[UconnFanDC]

Keep hope alive but let's take it one game at a time. After next game, we'll be like boneyard coaches planning for what's next.

 

[JB75]

We win one game on the road and now we’re a tourney team??? I’m all for optimism, but my god.

Hey it’s fun to talk about tho. We kno it’s an incredible long shot right now. But much better than NIT talk. God , imagine if we just won 3 of those 7 close games we lost? Villanova and Houston come to mind. Unreal We ve really dug ourselves a hole. Funny thing is , we beat Cincy Sunday and then SMU Wednesday we’re probably going to be favored in all our remaining games. Maybe Houston wud be a close spread. Very very doable after the smu game. Just give us hope. All I ask. Let’s get thru these next two games then we can maybe talk about NCAA and running the table. I think if we beat cincy and smu , it becomes a decent possibility

 

[DaveHuskiesFan]

Hard to imagine our NET would only rise 11 spots in that scenario. Not questioning you; just surprised.

If you look at Kenpom, were predicted to win 7 of our 9 games. With two losses @SMU by 2 and home vs Houston by 1. If those results held (based on winning margin) our ranking wouldn’t really change depending on how other teams around us did. If those two losses became wins, again our rating wouldn’t change that much especially if we only won by a point or two. In the tournament I’d have to think we’d be favorited in our first two games.

Long winded way of saying, we’re favorite in most games left, and unless we significantly outperform our predicted winning margin, our NET/Kenpom won’t change much.

 

[AdamaNation]

HUGE task at hand this weekend. We need to shut Cumberland down before any of this talk

We need sid back. Big time.

 

[Dabutlerdidit]

AAC Tourney games are our play-in games for the NCAA...we should take care of business. we still own our destiny this yr

 

[SubbaBub]

This school needs a mobile whiplash unit.

 

[businesslawyer]

If you look at Kenpom, were predicted to win 7 of our 9 games. With two losses @SMU by 2 and home vs Houston by 1. If those results held (based on winning margin) our ranking wouldn’t really change depending on how other teams around us did. If those two losses became wins, again our rating wouldn’t change that much especially if we only won by a point or two. In the tournament I’d have to think we’d be favorited in our first two games.

Long winded way of saying, we’re favorite in most games left, and unless we significantly outperform our predicted winning margin, our NET/Kenpom won’t change much.

Again, this is my problem with the Ken Pom's formula. It puts too much weight on how "good" you are, which is useful as a betting tool and predictor, and not nearly enough weight on whether you are winning or losing games that could go either way. My belief is the NCAA committee puts far more weight on who you beat and who you lose to and less weight on how close all of your margins are.

 

[auror]

Again, this is my problem with the Ken Pom's formula. It puts too much weight on how "good" you are, which is useful as a betting tool and predictor, and not nearly enough weight on whether you are winning or losing games that could go either way. My belief is the NCAA committee puts far more weight on who you beat and who you lose to and less weight on how close all of your margins are.

That's where NET comes in. NET is basically KenPom tweaked to weight wins more heavily.

That being said, it's a not a problem with the KenPom formula. Record is less predictive than scoring margin. You (and I don't mean to single you out, everyone including me sometimes) just have to know when and why to use it. It's not a resume tool.

For resume purposes, I like "Wins Above Bubble." Torvik has it on his site, but it was created by Seth Burn, an analytics blogger. Attempts to compare your record performance against your schedule compared to an average bubble team. As you can see, we're 116th in that. Which makes sense, as we've underachieved from an actual results perspective. BPI Resume has us at 104.