ND Over-rated or Under-rated?

[DefenseBB]

After reviewing the Conference Pre-Season polls and then this weeks Top 25 Poll, I was surprised to see the Fighting Irish as highly ranked as they were #1 ACC and #5 USA Nationally. I say this with unbelievable respect to Muffet McGraw, as considering what they lost to transfers and injuries and without any size to speak of, they have regular parlayed this into great seasons and while I personally think this will be a down year for them, evidently, I am in the minority. While we here on the BY have regularly bemoaned a lack of height in recruiting and on the team (until this year), ND has this issue regularly if not more so than us. I just simply tip my hat to what she is able to get out of her teams. I am curious as to what our two resident ND contributors (Dillon/Orangutan) have to say on the matter as well as my other fine colleagues here. My view is ND will be hard pressed to make it to the Great 8 this year, BUT I will not be surprised if they do get there with their depth of guard play. Thoughts?

 

[stwainfan]

I think those ranking would be fine. If a healthy Turner was playing. I agree McGraw is one of the best coaches.

 

[Husky1964]

Always enjoy beating ND now that we no longer play Rocky Top!!!!!

 

[triaddukefan]

hopefully overrated this year

 

[Alydar]

With transfer Thompson distributing the ball to Mabrey, Young and Ogunbuale the Irish can still put up a lot of points and will outscore most of their opponents. Once the important games start how far they in the tournament depends on whether Shepard gets her waiver, how Westbeld comes off surgery and the development of Patterson and Vaughn.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I underestimated ND after Skylar left and quickly learned that was a mistake. They may not be as good as the ND teams of the past 8 years, but they can win tough games and should be top 5-8, possibly higher.

 

[BigBird]

They play hard (usually), they are good defenders, and they make you guard 5 players. They deserve to be in or near the top ten most every year. They aren’t easily intimidated, and they really believe they can beat you. I don’t like them at all, but I respect what they have accomplished; it wasn’t easily done.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Yeah, the Irish are mentally tough. Without that, they would not have beaten us 7 out of 8. I’m so happy the world has returned to its proper state.

 

[bballnut90]

If the freshmen forwards can play solid defense and hit chippies inside they’ll be fine. They have a terrific crop of guards and wings (Thompson/Mabrey/Ogunbowale/Young) and Westbeld will likely be back up to speed as the season progresses. They nearly made the Final Four last year losing Turner in round 2 and they had virtually no size but walloped Ohio State and nearly beat Stanford too. If they get Shepard’s clearance, they’re a Final Four favorite. If not, they’re still a Final Four threat.

 

[nwhoopfan]

With transfer Thompson distributing the ball to Mabrey, Young and Ogunbuale

Of course I haven't seen her play for the Irish, but my recollection of Lili at Stanford is that she's more of a scorer than a distributor. Also hot and cold and can shoot you right out of a game just as readily as she can get you in a game.

I just looked it up, 295 assists in 104 games for Stanford, not particularly impressive for a supposed PG. Career .396 shooter. Meh. She certainly had some big games for the Cardinal, but I'm not a huge fan of hers.

 

[Plebe]

I underestimated ND after Skylar left and quickly learned that was a mistake. They may not be as good as the ND teams of the past 8 years, but they can win tough games and should be top 5-8, possibly higher.

Exactly this. Everyone thought ND would take a dip after losing Skylar. Then they had their best W-L record ever, going undefeated until the NCAA championship game. Then I thought they'd take a dip after losing McBride and Achonwa. They still dominated the ACC (only one loss in conference) and reached the NCAA championship game again. When Loyd bolted unexpectedly for the W, I thought they'd struggle. They went undefeated in ACC play that year and lost only 2 games, to UConn and Stanford.

No doubt that losing Turner is a huge blow (and now compounded by the loss of Johnson), but Notre Dame still has great talent to put on the floor. The other issue is, Who else in their conference would you put ahead of them? The only team that I see as a legitimate challenger is Duke. Louisville could be as well if they can find whatever chemistry was sorely lacking last year. But at this point, I'm not going to sell Notre Dame short until it's proven on the court otherwise.

 

[Dillon77]

Good morning. I've read over most of the posts thus far and find that I'll be mirroring a lot of these comments. When I played in my Sunday pick-up league yesterday morning and was asked pretty much this exact question, these were my major points:
- By the end of the season, I think MM and staff will have whomever is on the court functioning well. As mentioned here, MM finds a way to make what she has work; she keeps her expectations high; and, that usually translates to the players' performance.
- Initially, the "whomever" will take some time to polish, with Turner out and the Jessica Shepard eligibility still in limbo. Plus the Irish and Lili Thompson have to find their respective fit at point guard, and the frosh Mik Vaughn and Danielle Patterson have to find their feet.
- Good news: Vaughn has apparently hit the ground running in practice at center and hope that can translate into games. Still, she's a freshman so let's see.
- Better news: Mabrey, Ogunbowale, Young. They'll be on the floor a lot -- all the time? -- but they get the offense and McGraw's expectations.
- Questions:
1) When does Kat Westbeld come back? She is the cog in the Princeton offense and the glue of the team, in all respects. The sooner, the better.
2) How does Thompson fit in? As noted, she's has been a shoot-first PG, as opposed to Lindsay Allen's pass-first game. Skylar did both. Lili's got to take the middle approach, too. Don't want Marina Mabrey having to direct the half-court too much because it will take away from what she's on the floor to do: score.
- Competition in the ACC: Does Duke have enough besides Brown and Greenwell? Can Louisville find the elusive chemistry? Virginia is tough but is there consistent scoring? Syracuse, Miami and FSU are revamping.
- Depth: With the transfers and injuries (Mychal Johnson being the latest), MM will relying on a core group when the Irish hit the ACC schedule. You Boneyarders know how that goes...cringe a bit when a core member hits the floor.
- Will be challenging, but could get a big boost if Shepard is on the floor. I look forward to the development and will try to be patient.

 

[UConnCat]

ND has three outstanding scorers on the perimeter (Mabrey, Ogunbowale and Young) and Thompson showed at Stanford she's a capable scorer. Unfortunately for Muffet only one of those 4 has shown much interest in playing defense so she'll need those players to score a lot. Without Turner and with or without Shepard the Irish will likely have to employ a number of different zone defenses. Turner was an important defensive presence in the paint and Shepard if available will not come close to filling that void.

All here should be alerted that the floppers may be back:

“Not having a shot-blocker is a huge blow to the defense,” McGraw said, “so we’re going to have to take more charges, have to work in maybe some double teams, make sure our rotations are perfect, maybe play more zone. There’s a lot of different things we’ll have to try without Bri.”

 

[msf22b]

We haven't seen Ms Thompson for a while and l hope we are not forgetting how splendid a player she is capable of being.

ND will be just fine.

 

[BroadwayVa]

They play hard (usually), they are good defenders, and they make you guard 5 players. They deserve to be in or near the top ten most every year. They aren’t easily intimidated, and they really believe they can beat you. I don’t like them at all, but I respect what they have accomplished; it wasn’t easily done.

Let me second that! Muffet in my order of coaches is only second to Geno, after that is Dawn, Texas, Villinova (emotional fav).
Everything you say about ND has been true as long as Muffet has been there. Don't get me wrong--head to head with Uconn I can thro--w darts with the worst of them at ND. As I did with the old Men's Fab 5 Mich team--the team I loved to hate.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

I'm not a big fan of The Muffett. IMO if The Muffett was a "great" coach she would have won more than the one title UCONN gave her in 2001! There were 3-4 years she had the team that beat UCONN 7 out of 8 and still couldn't win a Championship while being in the Final 4 each year! They've had great players but seem too underachieve each year.
I lost a lot of respect for The Muffett when she cried and demanded respect from Geno and the WCBB world and then dished Stewie at the Player-of-the-Year ceremonies!

 

[huskeynut]

Without Turner, ND is over rated. And with Westbeld still a question mark for the post area, its going to be a tough road at times.

I'll give Muffet credit that her coaching will keep them competitive in most games. Running up against a team with good post players will be a huge problem.

 

[BroadwayVa]

I'm not a big fan of The Muffett. IMO if The Muffett was a "great" coach she would have won more than the one title UCONN gave her in 2001! There were 3-4 years she had the team that beat UCONN 7 out of 8 and still couldn't win a Championship while being in the Final 4 each year! They've had great players but seem too underachieve each year.
I lost a lot of respect for The Muffett when she cried and demanded respect from Geno and the WCBB world and then dished Stewie at the Player-of-the-Year ceremonies!

You dare to disagree???? (kidding) Your points are well taken and accurate. I suppose my selecting Muffett as only second to Geno is that : If not muffet as second then Who. Dawn has done great with USC but she does not have many years to prove if she is a winner or not. Then there is: I like ND, not playing Uconn, when they play everyone else. My wife has issues with what she considers dirty play (her Brooklyn OLOMM education stays with her)
When any coach is compared with the Geno/Christine/Shea/Marisa (and others) none stand the test. I too was not happy with Disrespecting Uconn/Stewie but she was expecting Loyd to get the honor. I guess this one discussion I could argue both sides and feel good about either.
You too are correct in that Muffett had really great players for many years and only won one NC. ---thanks for the great dissertation on ND WBB

 

[Justavisitor]

I'm not a big fan of The Muffett. IMO if The Muffett was a "great" coach she would have won more than the one title UCONN gave her in 2001! There were 3-4 years she had the team that beat UCONN 7 out of 8 and still couldn't win a Championship while being in the Final 4 each year! They've had great players but seem too underachieve each year.
I lost a lot of respect for The Muffett when she cried and demanded respect from Geno and the WCBB world and then dished Stewie at the Player-of-the-Year ceremonies!

Muffett does more with less than almost any other coach. In the years she gave Geno fits, she didn't have near the same amount of highly rated talent, but she found a way to win any way. I'm not really a fan of ND, but she has to be respected as a coach.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Muffett does more with less than almost any other coach. In the years she gave Geno fits, she didn't have near the same amount of highly rated talent, but she found a way to win any way. I'm not really a fan of ND, but she has to be respected as a coach.

The rating of HS players isn't always an indicator of excellence nor is the awards a player gets when on a Final 4 team. IMO ND has had more than its fair share of talented BB players. Turner, before injuries, was the kind of player along with Loyd, Mabrey, Madison,others that was a team with NC talent.

 

[Justavisitor]

Without Turner, ND is over rated. And with Westbeld still a question mark for the post area, its going to be a tough road at times.

I'll give Muffet credit that her coaching will keep them competitive in most games. Running up against a team with good post players will be a huge problem.

This! Even in the greatest of years, the undoing of ND goes back to post play and not having the size to compete with the eventual winners. I'm not sure why the top post player prospects don't tend to go to ND, but the guard play is definitely the strength of ND.

 

[Justavisitor]

The rating of HS players isn't always an indicator of excellence nor is the awards a player gets when on a Final 4 team. IMO ND has had more than its fair share of talented BB players. Turner, before injuries, was the kind of player along with Loyd, Mabrey, Madison,others that was a team with NC talent.

Talented, yes, but let's be real. There are players that no ranking system misses on, because those players are game changers. ND has lacked these players. They haven't had one of those shoe in type players that I can recall, like a Breanna Stewart or Maya Moore or Candace Parker or Elena Delle Donne or Aja Wilson. Let's not pretend there is no difference in having this type of player on the roster that can bail you out of loss by simply taking over the game.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Talented, yes, but let's be real. There are players that no ranking system misses on, because those players are game changers. ND has lacked these players. They haven't had one of those shoe in type players that I can recall, like a Breanna Stewart or Maya Moore or Candace Parker or Elena Delle Donne or Aja Wilson. Let's not pretend there is no difference in having this type of player on the roster that can bail you out of loss by simply taking over the game.

ND Turner, Loyd, Mallory, etc---many Geno wanted--Uconn never had EDD or Wilson or Parker---Maya yes. Yet ND won in the FF against Maya--so apples and oranges. Sometimes it's what you do with individuals that makes them greater than even they expected. The talent was there at ND.
I don't get all wrapped up over RATINGS---I've seen too many who went to teams and were over-rated.
How many NC's the Aja, Parker, EDD win??? No where near 3 or 4 or 11

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

I'm not a big fan of The Muffett. IMO if The Muffett was a "great" coach she would have won more than the one title UCONN gave her in 2001! There were 3-4 years she had the team that beat UCONN 7 out of 8 and still couldn't win a Championship while being in the Final 4 each year! They've had great players but seem too underachieve each year.

I am not sure how making the NCAA Championship game in 4 of 5 years (2011 through 2015) is "underachieving." During that time, McGraw's teams beat UConn twice in the Final Four (and three times in her career). Just to be clear, Geno has only lost in the Final Four 6 times in 27 years. Muffet McGraw's teams were responsible for three of those losses.

Also, the 7 out of 8 was not "3-4 years," but rather two years, plus one game. After losing three times to UConn during 2010-2011, McGraw beat UConn (with a senior Maya Moore) in the 2011 Final Four. ND would win 6 of the next seven over 2 seasons (including the 2012 Final Four), before UConn got revenge in the 2013 Final Four. And after beating UConn in the 2012 Final Four, ND lost to an undefeated Baylor (with Griner and Sims).

At the same time that you, @RSHERMVIKES , have gone on to discuss how Stewart is one of the three greatest players in the history of WCBB, what an all-time great of a PG Jefferson was, etc., you are chiding Muffet McGraw for not having more titles - even though she lost to UConn (and Stewart, etc.) in the 2014 and 2015 Finals. Heck, in 2014, ND was undefeated going into that game, and in 2015, it was a five-point contest relatively late before the final margin of ten

As for the last two years, there were upset losses - Sweet 16 in 2016 and Elite Eight in 2017, both to Stanford and Tara Vanderveer, as I recall.

But I must admit to being flummoxed as to the basis of the characterization that Muffet McGraw and Notre Dame managed to "underachieve each year," as set forth in your post.

 

[Orangutan]

It's sort of difficult to answer this question right now. I would feel very confident in ND as a Final Four threat with a healthy Westbeld and an eligible Shepard. It's not clear yet if ND will have either of those things.

I've been working on the assumption that Westbeld will (eventually) be 100% and there will be no Shepard.

ND nearly made the Final Four last year playing small ball around Westbeld, who was basically playing on one leg. It's not sustainable all year long but I think ND can make a deep run in the tourney playing that style if all the key players (Thompson, Mabrey, Arike, Young, Westbeld) are healthy.

The other question marks are, of course, the freshmen, Patterson and Vaughn. There's been a lot of positive preseason talk surrounding Vaughn and curiously little regarding Patterson. Then again, last year Muffet was talking up Nelson, who ended up being cut from the rotation as the season went on. So maybe they're just trying to build Vaughn's confidence.

The rotation is so thin that the freshmen will have to play a lot and how well they play will have a much more substantial impact on the team's overall fortunes than would ideally be the case.