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Message: [QUOTE="auror, post: 3475575, member: 1329"] Yes the rate is probably lower than that of the current. But the rate among confirmed cases currently is at 32x, not 10x, and there are a bunch more people who may yet die who have not recovered who are being counted among the denominator of the rate, so the uncertainty is working in both directions. 10x is a conservative estimate already accounting for the under-testing. Again, the guy who said 10x is director of the [B]National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. [/B]He knows more than you. He took more than a statistics class. [/QUOTE]