NBA Offseason



nelsonmuntz

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Ginobili was a nice player, but his 3 best PPG seasons were 19.5, 17.4 and 16.5. Is he a superstar too now? Parker filled up the stat sheet a little better than Ginobili, and I guess you can consider him a superstar, maybe, although we are crossing into the territory of just saying after the fact that the best players on winning teams were superstars.

I don't think anyone thought Parker was a superstar before or even in the middle of his run with the Spurs. It wasn't until the tail end that people realized how great Parker was. The Spurs were a very deep team during the entire run.

No matter how you cut it, no successful team has ever simply put three superstars (1 of whom is on the downslope of his career) on a team along with a bunch of detritus. Depth matters.
 
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Ginobili was a nice player, but his 3 best PPG seasons were 19.5, 17.4 and 16.5. Is he a superstar too now? Parker filled up the stat sheet a little better than Ginobili, and I guess you can consider him a superstar, maybe, although we are crossing into the territory of just saying after the fact that the best players on winning teams were superstars.

I don't think anyone thought Parker was a superstar before or even in the middle of his run with the Spurs. It wasn't until the tail end that people realized how great Parker was. The Spurs were a very deep team during the entire run.

No matter how you cut it, no successful team has ever simply put three superstars (1 of whom is on the downslope of his career) on a team along with a bunch of detritus. Depth matters.
Ginobili is a Hall of Famer because of his international contributions.
 
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Ginobili was a nice player, but his 3 best PPG seasons were 19.5, 17.4 and 16.5. Is he a superstar too now? Parker filled up the stat sheet a little better than Ginobili, and I guess you can consider him a superstar, maybe, although we are crossing into the territory of just saying after the fact that the best players on winning teams were superstars.

I don't think anyone thought Parker was a superstar before or even in the middle of his run with the Spurs. It wasn't until the tail end that people realized how great Parker was. The Spurs were a very deep team during the entire run.

No matter how you cut it, no successful team has ever simply put three superstars (1 of whom is on the downslope of his career) on a team along with a bunch of detritus. Depth matters.
Nobody said superstar, they said Hall of Famer. They said Tim Duncan was a superstar which isn't even an arguable point
 

nelsonmuntz

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I think Westbrook's contract is going to be very hard to move. I can almost see Detroit doing the deal, because Griffin, Drummond, D-Rose and Westbrook wouldn't look terrible on paper and the east could be a 3 or 4 team race. Plus, Griffin's age and contract make him untradeable, so why not take one run at the title while he is still in his prime? The downside is that Detroit will be atrocious at the back end of all of these bad contracts.
 
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I think Westbrook's contract is going to be very hard to move. I can almost see Detroit doing the deal, because Griffin, Drummond, D-Rose and Westbrook wouldn't look terrible on paper and the east could be a 3 or 4 team race. Plus, Griffin's age and contract make him untradeable, so why not take one run at the title while he is still in his prime? The downside is that Detroit will be atrocious at the back end of all of these bad contracts.
The back end. . . . meaning next year or the year after? Including this year, Blake(player option 3rd year) and Andre have 2 years and Westbrook 3? That isn't impossible to overcome. On the one hand, the Pistons are in a purgatory of mediocrity so this would help and is a decent fit on paper. On the other hand, does anyone really want Westbrook? The better question is why in the world would Miami do this?
 

nelsonmuntz

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The back end. . . . meaning next year or the year after? Including this year, Blake(player option 3rd year) and Andre have 2 years and Westbrook 3? That isn't impossible to overcome. On the one hand, the Pistons are in a purgatory of mediocrity so this would help and is a decent fit on paper. On the other hand, does anyone really want Westbrook? The better question is why in the world would Miami do this?
I don't know Dragic's health situation, but I really like his game. He is not nearly the athlete Westbrook is, but he also comes with no bull .
 

nelsonmuntz

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I am not interested in your opinion if you don't make some predictions yourself. I predicted the East, and will get to the West in the next day or two.
 

HuskyHawk

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I think the East is a toss-up in some ways, but Milwaukee should be the favorite. West will be as well.

1. Bucks
2. Celtics
3. Pacers
4. 76ers
5. Raptors
6. Nets
7. Heat
8. Magic
 
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East predictions
(Tiers --)

1) Bucks - Giannis is that good.
2) 76ers - D is going to be insane. Embiid will get hurt, though. If JRich and Horford can hit 40% from 3, they'll be #1.
--
3) Raptors - Core is older, but still really solid. I think Siakam takes a leap.
4) Celtics - Team should fit better together. Could pass Raptors if Tatum's trajectory reverts back to expected after 1st year.
--
5) Orlando - Surprise of the season. Defense comes together, take advantage of 5-9 teams having weaknesses.
6) Pacers - Missing 2 months of Oladipo +rust hurts.
7) Nets - I like a lot of their pieces, but not sure of the D and there's a gaping hole at the 4 until next year.
8) Heat - Addition by subtraction of Whiteside.
9) Pistons - Blake Griffin begins to break down at age 30 like an NFL RB.
--
10) Hawks - Will be playing too many young guys to make the playoffs, but will start getting the frisky tag.
12) Bulls - A lot of good, starter-quality players. Need a star.
11) Wizards - Beal will keep them out of the bottom 3.
--
13) Hornets - Of the bottom 3, have the most veteran guys who who won't tank.
14) Knicks - How do you spend that much money in FA and still suck? Very young starting lineup.
15) Cavaliers - Year 2 of the tank Hopefully they get into top 3 this time.
 

uconnbaseball

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Lakers add Bradley, who played well for Memphis after struggling with the Clippers. He should be a nice bench piece.

Nuggets trade for Grant, a quality 3/4. The Nuggets only had one weakness: SF. They have fixed that. If Jamal Murray becomes a star they are the next Golden State.
 

HuskyHawk

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East predictions
(Tiers --)

1) Bucks - Giannis is that good.
2) 76ers - D is going to be insane. Embiid will get hurt, though. If JRich and Horford can hit 40% from 3, they'll be #1.
--
3) Raptors - Core is older, but still really solid. I think Siakam takes a leap.
4) Celtics - Team should fit better together. Could pass Raptors if Tatum's trajectory reverts back to expected after 1st year.
--
5) Orlando - Surprise of the season. Defense comes together, take advantage of 5-9 teams having weaknesses.
6) Pacers - Missing 2 months of Oladipo +rust hurts.
7) Nets - I like a lot of their pieces, but not sure of the D and there's a gaping hole at the 4 until next year.
8) Heat - Addition by subtraction of Whiteside.
9) Pistons - Blake Griffin begins to break down at age 30 like an NFL RB.
--
10) Hawks - Will be playing too many young guys to make the playoffs, but will start getting the frisky tag.
12) Bulls - A lot of good, starter-quality players. Need a star.
11) Wizards - Beal will keep them out of the bottom 3.
--
13) Hornets - Of the bottom 3, have the most veteran guys who who won't tank.
14) Knicks - How do you spend that much money in FA and still suck? Very young starting lineup.
15) Cavaliers - Year 2 of the tank Hopefully they get into top 3 this time.

I think this highlights how much "if" there is across the east. Milwaukee looks like a consensus favorite, but they lost a little depth. Some prognosticators say the Nets are best. The Raptors got a lot worse. Boston may have gotten better, may have gotten worse.

Lots of people on this board are high on Philly, yet I think they got a lot worse, losing Butler and Reddick. They don't have defensive answers for quick, smaller guards, lack ball handling and outside shooting. Horford only started taking 3s when he got to Boston, and even then only when completely uncontested. Playing as a 4, those will be contested a lot more often and he won't be able to take them in volume or make them at a 40% clip.
 
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East predictions
(Tiers --)

1) Bucks - Giannis is that good.
2) 76ers - D is going to be insane. Embiid will get hurt, though. If JRich and Horford can hit 40% from 3, they'll be #1.
--
3) Raptors - Core is older, but still really solid. I think Siakam takes a leap.
4) Celtics - Team should fit better together. Could pass Raptors if Tatum's trajectory reverts back to expected after 1st year.
--
5) Orlando - Surprise of the season. Defense comes together, take advantage of 5-9 teams having weaknesses.
6) Pacers - Missing 2 months of Oladipo +rust hurts.
7) Nets - I like a lot of their pieces, but not sure of the D and there's a gaping hole at the 4 until next year.
8) Heat - Addition by subtraction of Whiteside.
9) Pistons - Blake Griffin begins to break down at age 30 like an NFL RB.
--
10) Hawks - Will be playing too many young guys to make the playoffs, but will start getting the frisky tag.
12) Bulls - A lot of good, starter-quality players. Need a star.
11) Wizards - Beal will keep them out of the bottom 3.
--
13) Hornets - Of the bottom 3, have the most veteran guys who who won't tank.
14) Knicks - How do you spend that much money in FA and still suck? Very young starting lineup.
15) Cavaliers - Year 2 of the tank Hopefully they get into top 3 this time.
This looks closest to mine so I'll piggyback. I'd go Pacers, Nets, Orlando, Miami for tier 3.
 
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I think this highlights how much "if" there is across the east. Milwaukee looks like a consensus favorite, but they lost a little depth. Some prognosticators say the Nets are best. The Raptors got a lot worse. Boston may have gotten better, may have gotten worse.

Lots of people on this board are high on Philly, yet I think they got a lot worse, losing Butler and Reddick. They don't have defensive answers for quick, smaller guards, lack ball handling and outside shooting. Horford only started taking 3s when he got to Boston, and even then only when completely uncontested. Playing as a 4, those will be contested a lot more often and he won't be able to take them in volume or make them at a 40% clip.
No one with an opinion with listening to has the Nets as the favorite.

I do agree that defending smaller guards is a weakness, but it is actually less of a weakness than last year. Richardson is better than Butler versus those types and Thybulle and Zaire Smith came in with reputations as defensive stoppers at the 2. The biggest weakness will be late game scoring as they lost their closer but they will rack up a lot of regular season wins.
 
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East predictions
(Tiers --)

1) Bucks - Giannis is that good.
2) 76ers - D is going to be insane. Embiid will get hurt, though. If JRich and Horford can hit 40% from 3, they'll be #1.
--
3) Raptors - Core is older, but still really solid. I think Siakam takes a leap.
4) Celtics - Team should fit better together. Could pass Raptors if Tatum's trajectory reverts back to expected after 1st year.
--
5) Orlando - Surprise of the season. Defense comes together, take advantage of 5-9 teams having weaknesses.
6) Pacers - Missing 2 months of Oladipo +rust hurts.
7) Nets - I like a lot of their pieces, but not sure of the D and there's a gaping hole at the 4 until next year.
8) Heat - Addition by subtraction of Whiteside.
9) Pistons - Blake Griffin begins to break down at age 30 like an NFL RB.
--
10) Hawks - Will be playing too many young guys to make the playoffs, but will start getting the frisky tag.
12) Bulls - A lot of good, starter-quality players. Need a star.
11) Wizards - Beal will keep them out of the bottom 3.
--
13) Hornets - Of the bottom 3, have the most veteran guys who who won't tank.
14) Knicks - How do you spend that much money in FA and still suck? Very young starting lineup.
15) Cavaliers - Year 2 of the tank Hopefully they get into top 3 this time.
East Tier 1:
1. Bucks---- bledsoe/matthews/middleton/giannis/lopez
2. Sixers----simmons/richardson/harris/horford/embiid
East Tier 2:
3. Celtics---walker/brown/hayward/tatum/kanter
4. Pacers---brogden/lamb/warren/sabonis/turner
5. Nets-----irving/levert/harris/kurucs/allen
6. Raps-----lowry/vanvleet/powell/siakham/gasol
East Tier 3:
7. Heat-----dragic/waiters/butler/johnson/adebayo
8. Magic---augustine/fournier/hayes/gordon/vucevic
9. Pistons--jackson/rose/kennard/griffin/drummond
10. Bulls---white/lavine/porter/markkanen/carter

West Tier 1:
1. Clipps----beverley/shamet/george/leonard/zubac
2. Lakers----rondo/green/james/davis/cousins
West Tier 2:
3. Nuggs----murray/harris/barton/millsap/jokic
4. Jazz-------conley/mitchell/ingles/bogdanovic/gobert
5. Rockets---paul/harden/gordon/tucker/capela
6. Blazers----lillard/mccollum/hood/collins/whiteside
West Tier 3:
7. Pels-------holiday/redick/ingram/zion/favors
8. Warriors--curry/russell/mckinnie/green/looney
9. Spurs-----white/forbes/derozan/morris/aldridge
10. Mavs----wright/hardaway/doncic/powell/porzingis
 
Last edited:

xclamations

Now with 2020 Vision
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1. Bucks
2. Sixers
3. Celtics
4. Pacers
5. Pistons
6. Nets
7. Heat
8. Magic

Unless the Raptors make a massive trade
to get Bradley Beal maybe, then I see these 8
 

xclamations

Now with 2020 Vision
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West
1. Clippers
2. Jazz
3. Nuggets
4. Blazers
5. Rockets
6. Lakers
7. Warriors
8. Spurs

Dallas could challenge for the 8 seed maybe.
my suns are terrible...
 
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West Regular Season Rankings

Tier 1 team are championship contenders. Tier 3 teams will battle for the playoffs.

Tier 1

1) LAC - Great high end talent and great depth. Weakness should be center defensively. Harrell is to small and Zubac is mediocre. May not be an issue, but they will have some unfavorable match-ups in the playoffs.

2) Denver - Amazing depth throughout. Nice pickup today with Grant. The front office seems to expect that Porter will eventually be their 1a or 1b player and that would be scary.

3) Houston - The most undervalued team. They were the #1 threat to the Warriors the past 2 seasons and are running it back.

4) LAL - It wasn't long ago that Bradley and KCP were more highly regarded than Green. Green couldn't shoot 2 years ago. Bradley and KCP were complete failures when given more of the offensive load. I have a hard time imagining they are completely washed at age 28 and 26. If they just suck there will be a lot of defensive issues against quick guards.

Tier 2

5) Utah - Great regular season offensive team. My concern is the lack of defensive wings in the playoffs. How can Bogdan and Ingles possibly handle Kawhi/PG?

6) Portland - They are incredibly high on Anfernee Simons and he looked great the other night in SL. They need Collins to blossom because Whiteside won't cut it.

7) Warriors - This may be the worst collection of wings in the league. They are taking all offense, no defense to the next level.

Tier 3

8) Spurs - Underrated signings with Morris and Carroll. Merely competent, but heir only competent wing last year was Gay and he is a much better 4 at this point. They expect huge things from Dejounte. Murray, White and Lonnie Walker IV can be a very promising young backcourt. Walker has looked awesome in the SL.

Mavs - They blew the offseason by striking out on all available wing players.

Kings - Really like their young talent and depth throughout the roster. One of their young kids needs to take the jump.

Pelicans - Great depth and young talent throughout. I think Zion will be merely good. Frontcourt defensively will be an issue.
 

nelsonmuntz

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West:

1) Clippers - This is how you build a team. Deep and talented across the board, can handle an 82 game regular season and have a team fresh heading into the playoffs. Rivers is a great coach for this squad too.

2) Nuggets - Like the talent. The Joker is going to have a monster season, and Millsap is the perfect complement to him down low. Murray could make the All Star team this year. Grant was a good pickup, and I like Beasley and Morris off the bench. I do not like Malone though, and that is the only thing holding me back from putting them in the conference finals against the Clippers. They will have a good regular season though.

3) Jazz - Mike Conley is too short and has lost a quarter step and is just an OK shooter, and he just has game. Teams that want to make ESPN's SportsCenter's Top 10 Plays get Kyrie Irving. Teams that want to win get Kemba Walker or Mike Conley. Mitchell's erratic shooting was a problem in the past, but with Conley and Bogdonavic the offense should be more consistent. Gobert erases a lot of defensive mistakes. Ingles becomes a 6th man, which is the right role for him.

4) Rockets - Stop trying to make a big splash, and instead try to find a good backup wing. Capela is becoming a force inside, and Paul still has it. I like Eric Gordon, and Harden is one of the top scorers in the NBA.

5) Spurs - I like this team. DeRozan and Aldridge are a solid inside outside tandem. I think Murray has a ton of upside, and this may be the deepest team in the NBA.

6) Warriors - I am not crazy about the fit, but Russell is a good player and will relieve a lot of pressure from Curry. The Warriors are going to have problems defensively but they will still win 45-50 games.

7) Portland - Lillard and McCollum are a very good backcourt, but they are going to miss Kanter. Nurkic is probably missing the season, and Whiteside may put up a few huge games, but it is hard to forget how useless he is most of the time. With Nurkic, this is a 55 win team. I don't think they get to 50.

8) Pelicans - Jrue has some finishers to work with, and I think he is going to have a great year. The team is still a little young, but they have a lot of weapons.

9) Kings - Hield and Fox is a good backcourt, and Bogdoanovic could be a star. This team could shock everyone and get a 6 seed.

10) Lakers - I was not a fan to begin with, but playing LeBron at point is insanity. He will break down by New Year's.

11) Dallas - Doncic and Porzingis should be a deadly combo. I like Hardaway as long as he is not asked to do too much. The roster has a bit of a rotisserie feel to it with so many moves in the offseason for secondary players, and it could take a while to get the team on the same page.

12) Thunder - this team is not terrible, unless they trade Westbrook, but the west is too good for a team like this to sneak into the playoffs. 5 years from now they could be awesome though.

13) Timberwolves - bad team, and bad franchise.

14) Grizzlies - great offseason, but next year is a rebuilding year.

15) Suns - suck
 
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