NBA Offseason Thread (2022) | The Boneyard

NBA Offseason Thread (2022)

nelsonmuntz

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Eastern Conference

Early winners:

Celtics - I thought the Celtics were a good, not great team that got some breaks to make the finals. With Brogdan and Gallinari, I think they are one of the best teams in the east. Great work by Brad Stevens.

Hawks - Hawks had a puzzling season that seemed like just a down year after a great 2020-2021, but with Murray, the Hawks are a challenger in the East. Spurs dumping an all-star was just stupid. They will never get a player as good as Dejounte Murray with any of the pieces they got. San Antonio is also not a destination market for free agents. This feels like the true end of an era of Spurs being competitive. They could be bad for a long time.

Pistons - they are still a bad team, but they are stocking up on short contracts and good young players. Who knows if it will work out for them, but they are making the right moves.


Holding steady:

Bucks - a very good team returning plus being way over the cap limits their options. Picking up Ingles could be good, and holding Connaughton and Portis was necessary. Their title window is closing, but they may be the best team in the East next year.

76ers - I really like the team that is returning, but I don't know what to do about Harden. Embiid and Harris are still very good, and I think Maxie is going to have a break out season, which makes the decision on what to do about Harden a lot tougher. Harden wants a big contract, but do the 76ers need a ball hogging, modest defense guard at the back end of his career who has never stayed in the best condition? And do they want to pay Harden $100MM for 3 seasons to be the 4th scoring option?

Heat - their pursuit of Durant will be their focus for the next few days.

Cavaliers - This team could be the big story next year, but I think they should make a run at Durant. I think the Cavs could win 50 games with this roster, but I think this group has a low ceiling in the playoffs without a true superstar. I would make a strong run at Durant if I was Cleveland.

Bulls - had to sign Levine, and they have a good starting lineup, but now they need to work on their bench.

Raptors - Porter is a weird pick up for a defensive focused team, but it seems like the Raptors are fine with Siakum and VanVleet as the two stars. I think this team is at best a 45 win team.

Hornets - This is a team that looks better on paper than they do on the court. Ball is a star, and I saw that Bridges got arrested but I don't know the story with him. Rozier is good, and Hayward is solid in the right role.

Losers:

Knicks - as usual. They blew $164 million on Brunson and Robinson, so the Knicks ceiling is 40ish wins for the next 3 years.

Nets - another team locking in on mediocrity or worse. Kyrie is in the last year of an virtually untradeable contract, and Durant is a back end of his career superstar who is not worth nearly as much as he might have been worth even a year ago. I would take the Kyrie for Westbrook trade if I was the Nets, because at least Westbrook plays hard.

Wizards - Beal signing seems to be an endorsement of below average basketball. I like Porzingis more than most, but Beal/Porzingis/Kuzma with the rest of the detritus on this team is a path to 35 wins.

Orlando - it feels like they are trying to get worse. They are bringing back everyone from a bad team. I don't see how they get any better.

Indiana - all the signs of a team tanking, plus the owner is not in great financial shape, so this team will be bad for a while.
 

nelsonmuntz

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Nets really blew it with Kyrie and Durant. Neither player is worth nearly what the Nets want for them, and both players' trade value is likely to go down over the course of the season.
 

nelsonmuntz

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Western Conference:

Offseason Winners:

Clippers - John Wall is a big addition, but they still have to figure out a way to get Leonard and George to play together. It seems like both of them are much, much better when the other one is not on the court.

Timberwolves - Gobert is a big pickup for a team that would have stretches of just terrible defense at times. I think the coach is terrible, so I don't know how much upside this team has, but there is a lot of talent here and this team is fun to watch when they are playing well.

Suns - Resigning Ayton was the right move, but it was stupid to even flirt with not doing it. Ayton may be pissed, and Phoenix needs everyone on the same page given that Paul may already be in significant decline.

Trail Blazers - McCollum is a good player, but the Blazers didn't need him with Simons, Lillard and Payton. Grant was a nice pickup, and I like him and Nurkic in the front court, and Hart played well at the end of the season. This team doesn't suck but it is hard to see them winning more than 40-45.

Holding Steady:

Nuggets - I like this team for next year just because Jokic will get some help with Porter Jr. and Murray returning from injury. This team may be the best in the west, although I don't like Malone as HC. They had some good pickups (Caldwell-Pope), but they need to firm up their bench up front to keep Jokic's minutes down. Still, this team is ready to compete for the Western Conference Title as is.

Pelicans - on this list because they signed McCollum. I am not a fan of the Williamson contract, but the Pelicans didn't have a lot of options so they need to figure out a way to win with him. I like the additions, but this is probably still a below average team.

Grizzlies - They didn't do much in the offseason, which is weird for a team with a brittle star (Morant) and that is clearly not good enough to win the conference with the team they have. I expect them to slide a few spots down the standings with other teams returning full rosters.

Warriors - Last season was a great encore for two certain future Hall-of-Famers and a third possible. The team is in salary cap purgatory and is rapidly aging, so there is not a lot they can do to help their roster. I think this is still a 45-50 win team, but this group has won its last title. It has been a great run.

Kings - staying in the "holding steady" category is not a good thing for the Kings. I don't know why Gentry was let go because winning 30 games with this lousy roster is a pretty big accomplishment. I don't think there is a single "plus" player (someone that is better than the average player at his position) on this roster after Sabonis.

Rockets - Bad team that didn't make themselves worse net/net. Losing Wood hurt but some of these rookies and second year players will probably develop into a team that can win 25 games.

Losers:

Mavericks - Brunson isn't a great player, but Dallas needed to figure out a way to keep him. They have lost Porzingis and Brunson in the last 8 months, and this team is now Luka and a bunch of decent 3 point shooters that plays OK defense.

Lakers - they are now considering telling Westbrook to stay home. This team is now Lebron, AD (for 40 games a year) and a G-League roster. The Lakers are hurtling towards bad, and I think history will show that the 2020 championship will be one of the stranger outlier championships by any team in NBA history.

Thunder - this teams got a goldmine of picks in the Paul George trade and seems to be wasting them on mediocre players. Holmgren seems like one of those players that will never be 100%, and the team inexplicably gave a huge contract to Dort. Gilgeous-Alexander doesn't appear to be the star everyone thought he would be. There is no real way to make this team better because it doesn't have anything to trade that anyone else would want, but spending money on mediocre talent like Dort and wasting draft picks could turn the Thunder into the Kings.

Jazz - this team is getting worse with the loss of Gobert, and they are trying to move Mitchell. A disaster 20 to 25 win season is a possibility.

Spurs - I don't get any of their moves. Tanking is generally a bad strategy in the modern NBA, and Murray is a really good player that could have been the foundation of a rebuild. The Spurs are going to be bad for a long time.


I think the era of West dominance, which goes back about 30 years, is over. There are two teams in the East that appear to not be competitive next season (Indiana and Orlando). There are easily 5 teams in the West that could just suck (Rockets, Spurs, Jazz, Thunder and Kings) and the Lakers are one AD sneeze from joining those teams in the 30ish or worse win club.

The Clippers, Nuggets and maybe the Suns (if Paul can continue to defy aging) are legitimate NBA title contenders. The East has the Celtics, 76ers, Bucks, Heat and Hawks.
 

nelsonmuntz

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I love the Mitchell trade for Utah. They move a malcontent in Mitchell that is not great defensively and has never really won anything, for a younger version of Mitchell plus Markannan and a ton of draft picks. Unless Sexton is hurt, Mitchell was worth maybe Sexton plus 1 draft pick. Sexton is also just over half the cost of Mitchell.

Great trade for Utah, bad trade for Cleveland.
 

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