NBA Finals Thread - Celtics vs Mavericks

[UofCT]

The Celtics swept the series 4-0 so I would say they didn't have that much an issue with them.

You clearly didn’t watch.

 

[Excalibur]

Celtics are deeper, but Luka and Irving have been so good in the last 6-7 games it may not matter. Both teams really had the playoff brackets open up for them.
Both teams are prone to "hero ball" (I hate the term, honestly).

 

[HooperScooper]

You clearly didn’t watch.

I did. But what good did it do them if they lost each game? That's the ultimate goal, right?

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

They beat Dallas by 30 the last time they played. No one's shocking anyone. This "battle tested" shtick of yours might be goofier than the "Hurley didn't use Hawkins right" one.

Are we really using regular season games to talk about a Finals matchup?

And more of this twisting words to make out something I didn’t say thing?

I’m not falling for your lawyer tricks!

 

[HuskyHawk]

I agree with all of this.

Only thing I’ll quibble with is: it’s not a huge surprise if Luka puts on that historic performance… It’s not as much “unless” but “how historic” to me. Can he be historic ENOUGH?

Celtics are going to do something the TWolves didn't and attack Luka on defense. He's going to be defending a capable scorer every minute. He's an incredible talent, but he's going to be working hard on both ends. Dallas' depth is going to be tested. Boston is a better offensive and defensive team than anybody Dallas played in west.

 

[NJHusky]

Just saw some highlights....Luka is amazing....but he looks like an out of shape rec league player. I'm sure his physique belies his conditioning but imagine if he actually go into top shape??

 

[Scoe]

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Celtics win in 7

 

[Ports21]

Celtics are deeper, but Luka and Irving have been so good in the last 6-7 games it may not matter. Both teams really had the playoff brackets open up for them.
Both teams are prone to "hero ball" (I hate the term, honestly).

The Celtics had it open up for them, sure, but more so just the players on teams that went down each round.

The Mavs have been the lower seed each round beating the Clippers, #1 seed Thunder, and the team who impressively bounced the champion Nuggets. Not sure I get the argument that it opened up for them.

Here's to a 7-gamer.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Just saw some highlights....Luka is amazing....but he looks like an out of shape rec league player. I'm sure his physique belies his conditioning but imagine if he actually go into top shape??

Bro has been playing on a bad knee all playoffs. If it was the regular season they said he’d be out a few weeks but he’s been gutting it out. He’s incredible.

Then they have Kyrie who just takes over when he decides it’s a good time too. Insane duo.

 

[James]

Boston did clobber them march 1st, but that was right at the start of the Mavs transformation into the best defense in the league. Very very exciting finals matchup imo and expect it to go 6 or 7. Leaning towards Dallas because they have the best player in the series by far.

 

[UofCT]

I did. But what good did it do them if they lost each game? That's the ultimate goal, right?

Play like they did vs. Indiana and Mavs will sweep.

 

[JohnFSilver]

Mavs in 6. If Celtics had issues with Andrew Nembhard and TJ McConnell just wait for Kyrie and Luka.

Celtics won both those games though and didn’t have Porzingis. Also, those guys didn’t miss even when defended well. I think we got to be careful about that.

 

[JohnFSilver]

Celtics in 5. Media is star crossed. They love the Luka and Kyrie’s amazing ability, but I don’t see how it is possible for Dallas to stay in this.

Luka and/or Kyrie will have one nuclear game this series and get a win.

Tatum is due for a 40 piece as well (Celtic duo not shabby).

I just think white, Holliday, Porzingis, Horford is so much better than what they trot out.

 

[champs99and04]

What fascinates me about this match-up is looking at how dramatically the betting markets have changed in the last six weeks. Coming into the postseason, the Celtics would have been what, -1000 in a series against Dallas? At least? I mean, based on the regular season these teams aren't even in the same galaxy. SRS says the Celts are about 8.5 points better on a neutral floor.

In the playoffs, though, the SRS difference is under a point, and actually flips towards the Mavs since the second round - and that's assuming Porzingis is 100%. If I didn't know any better and had to make my pick solely based off the conference finals', Dallas would be an easy call for me.

 

[nomar]

Going with the guys who had that bottom battle tested path.



If Mitchell was averaging 30 on 50% shooting there’s no telling what Luka and Kyrie is going to do in Finals mode.

Might use a free bet on Kyrie going for 30 and a win in the Garden game 1. Could see the Celtics having a shock of the rise in level of competition.

Past is not always prologue but Kyrie's lost something like 11 games in a row to Boston.

Certainly worried about Luke going absolutely apesh|t on us.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Past is not always prologue but Kyrie's lost something like 11 games in a row to Boston.

Certainly worried about Luke going absolutely apesh|t on us.

I expect both to go off and be ready to playfully troll the Celtics fans in here while doing so. Y’all have been warned!

I’ll have excuses ready if the reverse happens.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Celtics in 5. Media is star crossed. They love the Luka and Kyrie’s amazing ability, but I don’t see how it is possible for Dallas to stay in this.

Luka and/or Kyrie will have one nuclear game this series and get a win.

Tatum is due for a 40 piece as well (Celtic duo not shabby).

I just think white, Holliday, Porzingis, Horford is so much better than what they trot out.

DJJ and PJ have been doing a pretty great job on defense this playoffs. They’re going to be better than anything Tatum and JB have faced.

Holiday, White, and JB aren’t tough challengers than a Dort or a NAW/McDaniels/Ant combo.

It’s a team of collective talent that all try to do everything vs a team where everyone has solidified roles.

 

[Matrim55]

Past is not always prologue but Kyrie's lost something like 11 games in a row to Boston.

Certainly worried about Luke going absolutely apesh|t on us.

Yeah I'm a Celtics fan and we've got a better overall team but I feel like Luka's hit a "no chance he lets his team lose" level. I'm expecting the Mavs in 6 or 7.

 

[HooperScooper]

Play like they did vs. Indiana and Mavs will sweep.

Porzingis should be back next week. I think the Celtics are a much better team on both sides of the ball with him.

 

[nomar]

What fascinates me about this match-up is looking at how dramatically the betting markets have changed in the last six weeks. Coming into the postseason, the Celtics would have been what, -1000 in a series against Dallas? At least? I mean, based on the regular season these teams aren't even in the same galaxy. SRS says the Celts are about 8.5 points better on a neutral floor.

In the playoffs, though, the SRS difference is under a point, and actually flips towards the Mavs since the second round - and that's assuming Porzingis is 100%. If I didn't know any better and had to make my pick solely based off the conference finals', Dallas would be an easy call for me.

Dallas looked pretty good against Minnesota, who looked pretty good against Denver. They're the "hot pick."

Meanwhile, the Celtics sort of struggled against some injury-riddled teams, but did go 12-2. While they were down in a lot of games they never quite had their backs against the wall. Plus Porzingis was out for the end of the Miami series and the entire Cleveland and Indiana series.

Credit to Dallas for rising to the occasion but I wouldn't ding the Celtics for what's gone on in the East. I wasn't too pleased that they didn't run the Pacers out of the building but that series is over. New opponent, 7'3" stud center (likely) back, fresh slate. All season the Celtics had a knack for mediocrity when other teams' stars were out. Then the next day they'd beat some good team by 30.

I understand recency bias and the eyeball test shifting the betting markets and Luka is awesome, but if you told me before the playoffs started it would be BOS vs DAL, I'd probably have said the same thing I say now, which is Boston, in a competitive series (6 or 7).

 

[HooperScooper]

They beat Dallas by 30 the last time they played. No one's shocking anyone. This "battle tested" shtick of yours might be goofier than the "Hurley didn't use Hawkins right" one.

I was sitting courtside for that game. It was a strange game. It was the 4th game of a 4 game road trip for the Mavs and they seemed disinterested in playing defense. Doncic had another triple double and was very good.

Irving was clearly flustered. The fans were giving him lots of crap. Playing back in Boston seems to still be in his head. We'll see if he can shake that for the finals. I expect Boston fans are going to let him have it. He's still a DB to me, and not because he left Boston. He's just a weirdo who thinks he knows everything. Completely annoying to the coaching staff (who are all now no longer coaching the Celtics). The Celtics players who played with him, mainly Brown and Tatum, still like him. I have no idea why.

Lively had some good moments but I think most of his baskets were late and by that time the game was out of hand.

I wouldn't take much from that game to predict what will happen in this series.

 

[champs99and04]

Dallas looked pretty good against Minnesota, who looked pretty good against Denver. They're the "hot pick."

Meanwhile, the Celtics sort of struggled against some injury-riddled teams, but did go 12-2. While they were down in a lot of games they never quite had their backs against the wall. Plus Porzingis was out for the end of the Miami series and the entire Cleveland and Indiana series.

Credit to Dallas for rising to the occasion but I wouldn't ding the Celtics for what's gone on in the East. I wasn't too pleased that they didn't run the Pacers out of the building but that series is over. New opponent, 7'3" stud center (likely) back, fresh slate. All season the Celtics had a knack for mediocrity when other teams' stars were out. Then the next day they'd beat some good team by 30.

I understand recency bias and the eyeball test shifting the betting markets and Luka is awesome, but if you told me before the playoffs started it would be BOS vs DAL, I'd probably have said the same thing I say now, which is Boston, in a competitive series (6 or 7).

I definitely don't hold the Celtics' postseason performance to date against them - even after accounting for all the opponents' injuries, they were still just as dominant as they've been all season.

(Not that the Vegas spreads are everything, but they've pretty much hit the number square over the 14 playoff games. However much the gap has closed in the last six weeks is almost entirely a product of Dallas blowing its projection out of the water.)

And as you alluded to, I think the only reason the MOV looked a little less pretty in the Indiana series is that they won the game they were supposed to lose. Had they gone to Indy tied at one, I'm fairly certain both victories would have been more resounding.

My one concern from the Celts perspective is that they turn in a dud in one of the first two, thinking they can just turn it on and coast from there. But this is the finals' and there's more time between games, so perhaps those prior mishaps at home don't apply.

 

[bendm]

Hasn’t Dallas had the best defense and best record since the trade deadline? So much disrespect in this thread from the Boston homers

 

[aceboon]

Celtics can't go on prolonged stretches of playing CTE ball like they're known for against Dallas

 

[Karmacop]

Hasn’t Dallas had the best defense and best record since the trade deadline? So much disrespect in this thread from the Boston homers

Boston has the best record since February 9, at 25-6. Dallas had the third-best record in that time span, at 21-9 (OKC was 22-9).

As for defensive rating, Dallas and Boston are exactly tied for sixth with a 110.5 defensive rating. However, Boston's offensive rating was much better during that period (125.4 to 115.9), putting Boston 1st and Dallas 7th.

So the net rating during that time puts Boston first, with Dallas sixth (behind Denver(2), Minnesota (3), OKC (4), and Indiana (5)).

So while Dallas has definitely improved since the trade deadline, Boston has been just as good defensively and better in every other metric. And that's with resting most of their starters for multple games near the end of the regular season while Dallas played their starters for playoff position.

Not taking anything away from the threat posed by Dallas, but Boston is the better team, and that includes since the trade deadline.