nelsonmuntz
Point Center
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2011
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I am really on the fence with both these schools, and it is clear Navy is getting cold feet too. The mission of these schools is so radically different from every other school in the Big East. Furthermore, an upgrade will not really change their programs much at all, other than put a few more fans in their seats. Recruits that want to go to Navy or Air Force do not really care what league they are in.
Air Force was never able to crack the Top 3 in the MWC, even when those top 3 schools were down. Air Force was 3-12 against BYU, Utah and TCU the last 5 years, and those 3 weren't great every one of those years. A lot of the losses were competitive, but they were still a lot of losses. The rest of the MWC, which was middle of the pack to worse mid-major quality over that stretch, won 4 games against Air Force. AFA went 2-4 against BCS schools, with two razor close losses to Tennessee and Oklahoma, which is respectable.
Navy's track record is 11-12 against the majors, with some nice wins in there (ND 2010, Missouri 2009 Texas Bowl, Wake 2008), although they are both 2-2 against Duke and 3-1 against Notre Dame over that stretch, which is kind of strange. They are decent, but these were the best Navy teams in probably 40+ years. Can they keep that up?
I feel like the upside of Temple or a BYU (just let them keep the rebroadcast rights and we have a good shot at them) is better than Air Force or Navy. It's not clear cut though, and I think you are seeing some of this uncertainty playing out on both sides. Navy doesn't want to join unless everything else, like exit fees, is a slam dunk, and the Big East is not necessarily willing to move heaven and earth for Navy.
Air Force was never able to crack the Top 3 in the MWC, even when those top 3 schools were down. Air Force was 3-12 against BYU, Utah and TCU the last 5 years, and those 3 weren't great every one of those years. A lot of the losses were competitive, but they were still a lot of losses. The rest of the MWC, which was middle of the pack to worse mid-major quality over that stretch, won 4 games against Air Force. AFA went 2-4 against BCS schools, with two razor close losses to Tennessee and Oklahoma, which is respectable.
Navy's track record is 11-12 against the majors, with some nice wins in there (ND 2010, Missouri 2009 Texas Bowl, Wake 2008), although they are both 2-2 against Duke and 3-1 against Notre Dame over that stretch, which is kind of strange. They are decent, but these were the best Navy teams in probably 40+ years. Can they keep that up?
I feel like the upside of Temple or a BYU (just let them keep the rebroadcast rights and we have a good shot at them) is better than Air Force or Navy. It's not clear cut though, and I think you are seeing some of this uncertainty playing out on both sides. Navy doesn't want to join unless everything else, like exit fees, is a slam dunk, and the Big East is not necessarily willing to move heaven and earth for Navy.