National Freshman of the Year

[ERWUC65]

Well then, considering all the comments regarding Blakes, I would expect Vandy to beat SC at home with her putting up 25 points in the win. Nuf said...

 

[fomalhaut]

I've been thinking all year that Strong should be getting consideration for Player of the Year (see the Win Shares in the first post). Neither she nor Bueckers is going to beat out Watkins or Hidalgo, but they should be getting some votes.

Strong (222 rebounds) also has a chance to break Tina Charles' school freshman rebound record of 296. She'll almost certainly get up to at least third place.

 

[packwrap]

Interesting discussion, thanks for all the stats.

If we look at recent winners, it tends to be scoring based vs occasional 'all around play on a good team' choice. I'm not sure what material the voting writers sort through to make their choice. The media hype likes those big scoring games.

I'm happy with either Strong or Blakes; nice for Vandy/Shea

2024 JuJu USC scoring
2023 Latson FSU scoring
2022 Morrow Depaul scoring/rebounding
2021 Bueckers/Clark all around/scoring
2020 Boston SC all around
2019 Howard KY scoring

 

[ERWUC65]

Blakes got 34 tonight in a 20 point loss to Oklahoma. Excellent stats overall, she's quite good!

 

[Alydar]

I would argue that the competition that Blakes faces in the SEC ( 4 games vs top 25 plus two more top 25 games on the horizon) is far superior to the competition that Sarah faces in the Big East. I'm rooting for Sarah but Blakes has a lot going for her also

If the award was conference freshman of the year your comment would fit but it's a national award. Strong has played UNC, NDame, USC, Tenn, SCar, Creighton1 & Creighton2 and most likely Creighton3. That's 8 ranked teams and I wouldn't be surprised if Louisville becomes top 25. I'm sure others have better resume's but not "far superior".

Massey lists Vandi's current SOS as 33 and projects 28 at the end of the season.

Massey lists UConn's current SOS as 11 and projects 15 for the season.

 

[Zarathustra]

Another comparison of Stats.... from the OSU and UCONN sports pages 2/19/2025
Cambridge 5' 7" guard Sarah's numbers are on the second line:
minutes per game 27 FG 42.2% 3' 28.5 % FT 73.3 PPG 15.2 RB 4.6 Personal F 51 assists 50 TO 45 Stl 28 bl 4
Minutes 28.2 FG 57.4 % 3' 36.7 % FT 77.1 PPG 16.1 RB 8.0 fouls 42 Ass 92 TO 42 Stl 63 Bl 38
So the difference is Rebounding Assists, Turnover ( and the ratio) steals and Blocks. GO SARAH!!!

Thanks for the editing to my original post... most appreciated! GO SARAH!,
good luck to Mikayla and Vanderbilt!

 

[Zarathustra]

An updated comparison after 28 games for Sarah and Mikayla Blakes:
FG % S: .574 M: .460 Three Pt % S: .365 M: .339 FT % S: .765 M: .885
Sarah leads in Rebounds, Assists/TO ratio, Blocks; Mikayla for PPG and Free Throws.
Will Mikayla's two monster games mean more to voters than Sarah's overall fine play?
I just noted a posting on the webpage "JUST WOMEN'S SPORTS" that
reported: Sarah Strong is the first Freshman to register (after the Butler game)
400 points, 200 rebounds, 100 assists, and 50 steals (this year).
It was noted at the bottom of one of their web postings. It may be just one
of those "let's dig out an interesting stat", but... I LOVED IT. GO SARAH!

 

[robert]

Along with the numerous conference and limited player of the year candidates, I have also been keeping stats for the high profile freshman, usually the HoopGurlz top 10 and any noted names who shine (I track 15). So, while Dawn Staley had made some comments about Joyce Edwards and the fine year she's been having of late (please note she's really only blossomed after Ashlyn Watkins went down.), the actual race for FOY is between Sarah Strong and Mikayla Blakes of Vanderbilt. Mikayla has been in the news of late due to two high scoring games but she's been having a strong year for Shea. I use the Games Score efficiency calculations to create a per game score based on the season stats. For example, on Sunday, Sarah had a score of 29 and her season average score is 24.4 (which is 6th in the whole country). Joyce Edwards by comparison had a nice game score with 20 but her season average is 14.3, well below Sarah and honestly not worthy of any NFOY discussion. From a Her Hoop Stat Win Shares, Sarah leads the whole country at 6.0 with Hannah Hidalgo 2nd at 5.9 and Paige is 3rd at 5.7.

That said, Sarah is clearly the front-runner for National Freshman of the Year with Mikayla Blakes a distant second but getting nice press. Mikayla has a Win Share of 4.8.

Here is the list of Top Freshman, school, HoopGurlz rank, Efficiency Score and Win Share.

View attachment 107131

Sarah is the unanimous winner as the Freshman of the Year…. Period .

 

[donalddoowop]

Sarah is the unanimous winner as the Freshman of the Year…. Period .

Should not be, not unanimous, period or not.

 

[PJCLaw]

Along with the numerous conference and limited player of the year candidates, I have also been keeping stats for the high profile freshman, usually the HoopGurlz top 10 and any noted names who shine (I track 15). So, while Dawn Staley had made some comments about Joyce Edwards and the fine year she's been having of late (please note she's really only blossomed after Ashlyn Watkins went down.), the actual race for FOY is between Sarah Strong and Mikayla Blakes of Vanderbilt. Mikayla has been in the news of late due to two high scoring games but she's been having a strong year for Shea. I use the Games Score efficiency calculations to create a per game score based on the season stats. For example, on Sunday, Sarah had a score of 29 and her season average score is 24.4 (which is 6th in the whole country). Joyce Edwards by comparison had a nice game score with 20 but her season average is 14.3, well below Sarah and honestly not worthy of any NFOY discussion. From a Her Hoop Stat Win Shares, Sarah leads the whole country at 6.0 with Hannah Hidalgo 2nd at 5.9 and Paige is 3rd at 5.7.

That said, Sarah is clearly the front-runner for National Freshman of the Year with Mikayla Blakes a distant second but getting nice press. Mikayla has a Win Share of 4.8.

Here is the list of Top Freshman, school, HoopGurlz rank, Efficiency Score and Win Share.

View attachment 107131

Blakes is a great player; however, SS is a much more efficient shooter than Blakes and Blakes takes way more shots per game than SS. SS also has more assists, a better A/TO ratio (over 2:1 versus 1:1), and are about even with steals (I won't count rebounds or blocks because of the position and height differences, which SS leads in both). Overall, it's not close IMO about the effect SS has on games than Blakes. SS literally fills every stat category EVERY game, whether she scores a lot or not and I just don't see that from Blakes.

 

[Zarathustra]

Well then, considering all the comments regarding Blakes, I would expect Vandy to beat SC at home with her putting up 25 points in the win. Nuf said...

The result (2/23): South Carolina 82 - Vandy 54. Mikayla Blakes played 31 minutes
with 19 points while shooting 5 /15 and 2/5 from three-point range and 7/8 from
the charity stripe. She had 2 assists, 1 steal, three turnovers, and four fouls.

 

[Rowdy831]

Stats are very difficult when you play for UConn. They have the best players in the country and they play in the weakest conference of the teams that have a shot at winning a NC. So in most games Sarah is playing about 25 minutes max and she is unselfish so against players that are on teams that require a player to play the whole game she would come up short in some ways.

Watching her in the big games though is where I think Sarah has shown she is as good as any player in the country. She defends, she rebounds and she can play multiple positions very well. To me I think she is good enough to be included in the player of the year talk and should be shoe in for freshman of the year.

 

[Zarathustra]

March 3, 2025, cumulative stats from UCONN Stat page and Vanderbilt
stat page (Vandy average per game stats for assists, steals , and blocks
multiplied up by Mikayla's 30 games. Note UCONN/Sarah had 31 games (i.e.
28 - 3). Minutes per game: Sarah 27.9, Mikayla 31, PPG: S 16.1, M 23.3,
Field Goal %: S 0.584 M 0.464, Three point %: S 0.370, M 0.350, Free Throw %
S 0.741, M .884 Rebounds/game: S 7.9, M 3.5, Assists (total): S 106, M 93
Steals (total) S 73, M 75, Blocks (total): S 46, M 9. Seems to be a contest, including
all those issues previously noted in this thread, comparing a remarkable shooting
guard (up for Ann Meyer Drysdale award) vs a remarkable Small Forward (up
for Cheryl Miller award). Somewhat noteworthy is UCONN's team record
of 23 - 3 (18 - 0) and Vanderbilt's 21-9 (8-8). Vandy could be on the bubble
for the NCAA Tournament, depending how you view the possible "cut" on
where the NCAA draws the line for # of SEC teams to get "in". Vanderbilt is
a number 8 seed in the SEC tournament (a round one bye) and if they win their first game they will have to face South Carolina's Gamecock's in the Quarterfinals.
Gamecocks with a double bye. Should be interesting. I know Toby Fournier
has been playing well for DUKE, but..... See thread #1 above for other players
who have been under consideration.

 

[DefenseBB]

Why is everyone so fixated on PPG? They have some many more value added stats to leverage that give you a better idea on a players whole contribution like efficiency rating or win shares. Blakes is not a volume shooter but she’s also not really efficient. She is clearly the second best freshman in the country but is well behind Sarah and well ahead of Olivia Olson. Toby Fournier (who I happen to really like) is 6th nationally and is hurt by her limited minutes per game.

 

[Zarathustra]

Why is everyone so fixated on PPG? They have some many more value added stats to leverage that give you a better idea on a players whole contribution like efficiency rating or win shares. Blakes is not a volume shooter but she’s also not really efficient. She is clearly the second best freshman in the country but is well behind Sarah and well ahead of Olivia Olson. Toby Fournier (who I happen to really like) is 6th nationally and is hurt by her limited minutes per game.

I agree with DefenseBB. I am not a favorite of PPG as a primary consideration of the Freshman POY designation or any other POY rating for that matter. While there are
many factors that weigh into this designation, I DO like Sarah's chances...
not to mention her overall TALENT and value to the HUSKIES. GO UCONN!
I will be closely watching Mikayla Blakes play in the SEC tournament and
the NCAA's should Vanderbilt make the BIG DANCE. IF she "goes off" with
some 40 ++ games and some buzzer beating type of play (e.g. leading
Vandy to some O.T. / 4th quarter wins), I would be the first to vote for her as the # 2
Freshman of the Year! (That last comment is meant to be, somehow, humorous).

 

[donalddoowop]

Syla Swords is having a very good freshman season.

 

[Stagnant]

I think swords was mostly better than Olson in the big games. South Carolina for example.

 

[Zarathustra]

Syla Swords is having a very good freshman season.

Agreed!

 

[Stagnant]

I don’t have a problem with either Strong or Blakes winning it. Anyone else and I will fire off my tweet of disagreement lol.

 

[DefenseBB]

Agreed!

The Olson/Swords debate is a good one. Swords was the more heralded player coming in and the stats are close but give me Olson. Can Kim add more talent to these two over the next few years?

 

[Stagnant]

Olson was above swords in the big 10 awards. So, that might be where she is at nationally too.