Her team was a 1 seed last year. This year she expected to vie for a NC. Getting completely destroyed by UCONN indicates what a huge gap there is between UCONN and everyone else. If SC had beaten UCONN, I'd say she'd be right up there in the conversation. But the award is not given out because a "coach improved every year". It's "coach of the year", not "coach of the past few years"...
But heck, 1 "voter" felt SC was the #1 team in the nation so there's obviously no accounting for logic in the way the voters actually vote.
BTW I was wrong. SC was actually #2 preseason in both AP and Coaches. They were "expected" to be a great team this year. The fact that they have one loss while not really beating a top 10 team this season (unless you count Duke and Kentucky who are percolating around the top 10), it's not like they beat UCONN, ND, Baylor, Louisville, Maryland, Oregon State and FSU.
Note, I'm NOT saying they don't deserve to be ranked #2 - they totally do, BUT to imply that Dawn has done something "incredible" or "magically surprising" this year is just not correct. And IMHO NCOY should be for a coach who did way better than expected, or overcame serious obstacles (injuries, etc), to get their team near the top . Aside from getting crushed by UCONN, SC is about exactly what everyone expected of them this year (except maybe a tad less impressive - a 1 point miracle win over Duke is not exactly impressive)...
Preseason, FSU was ranked #37, and Oregon State wasn't even in the top 50. To me, it's amazing what those 2 schools have accomplished this season - far more than UCONN or SC or ND or any of those schools "expected" to be in the top 5 or 10. Princeton is another school, who, even tho they had an easy schedule, are undefeated and not ranked in the top 50 preseason. That's why I picked those 3 schools over a program like SC who was already expected to be there.