The Naismith Women's College Coach of the Year Award, which has been awarded since 1987, has almost exclusively been awarded to coaches whose teams have gone into the NCAA Tournament as #1 seeds. The only exceptions occurred in 1987, 1988, 1992, 1993, and 1996 when the award went to coaches with #2 seeded teams. Number 1 seeded tournament coaches are currently on a 18 year consecutive win streak. There is no reason to believe that streak will be broken this year. While it would be nice if the award went to some of the coaches being considered in this thread, it does not appear very likely.
Geno Auriemma, a six time winner of the award, should not be discounted merely because his teams met expectations. His awards came in 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2008, and 2009; All with great teams.
Dawn Staley will likely win because her team met expectations; Did not collapse or suffer a lapse.
Kim Mulkey is to be admired for maintaining a top level program in the wake of major superstar graduations with a team of lesser stars.
Muffet McGraw should give Niele Ivey a raise and elevate her to associate head coach. Coach McGraw's teams just continue to impress with superstar guard after superstar guard. (As a side note, given Ms Ivey's recruiting prowess, why not put her on the fantasy short list of Coach Auriemma's successors?)
Brenda Frese has pretty much tempered the Boneyard criticisms of her coaching ability with her team's Final Four appearance last year and the performance of this year's Lady Terrapin team post Alyssa Thomas; My darkhorse choice as NCOY.
Holly Warlick has done an outstanding job returning prominence to the Lady Vol program. If they continue to excel in Isabelle Harrison's absence, Coach Warlick will have a strong case.
Jeff Walz is turning in yet another stellar performance at the helm of the Cardinals. However, I do not like his chances.
Scott Rueck at Oregon State has done an outstanding job and will likely be the runner up in the voting; Likely as a result of playing in the Pac 12. Unseating this year's Stanford team does not score to many style points.
I fully agree with those who like the job Sue Semrau is doing at Florida State this year.
Beyond the current Top 8 teams and probable 1 and 2 seeds, one has to, at least, take a look at the coaches of Arizona State, Iowa, Mississippi State, Princeton, Chattanooga, and Florida Gulf Coast.
Dawn Staley is the choice among a number of worthy candidates; Augmenting an already impressive basketball resume.