Natalie Butler will be the 5th starter...don't doubt me on this..!

[CL82]

Last year, before the season began, I caught a lot of flack right here on the Boneyard, for posting: "Morgan Tuck is too good to not start."

So she started 38 or 39 games, all victories and an NC.

I will now double down, so to speak. For the upcoming season, I believe that:

"Katy Lou Samuelson is too good to not start" (at least 35 games)​

Great call on last season on Morgan. I did not expect her to come back so far, so fast.

Geno tends to avoid starting freshmen. KLS will get significant minutes though.

Butler is 'too good not to start' as well. I see Stewart being, well being Stewart, but her skills allow her to play the three, comfortably. I see Morgan as the 4. On defense, I suspect that we will use 'zone principals.' I'd guess an aggressive triangle and two as the go to defense. The Geno version will be unique though. The guards will be able to be very aggressive with Stewart, Butler and Tuck cleaning up any penetration.

 

[hoophuskee]

Putting Natalie with the other 4 starters would create terrible spacing on offense. On defense, that lineup would be slow(er) and not very athletic thus requiring Geno to play zone. When was the last time Geno started off a game playing zone?

I think he'll start either Lou (help space the floor on offense) or Gabby (athleticism on defense) in Kaleena's spot. Both Gabby and Lou create issues on one end of the floor but not both ends of the floor like Natalie would in that lineup.

I don't agree. What you'll have is Butler setting picks for Stewie or Nurse or KLS or NC to come off screens. Butler imo isn't going to see 25 minutes. Say about 20. In those 20 she'll see a lot variation of teammates. Stewie's shot and Tuck's shot should improve and in addition Butler should be a strong post option. If Butler is an aggressive low post player and as advertised can offensive rebound a bit - she'll be fine.

If Stewarts outside shot improves like Monty and Farris did in sr year and Tuck's outside shot improves - and you already have MoJeff and Nurse as very good shooters, spacing shouldn't be a problem. Tuck has shooting skills. Geno used to say with Griner he wouldn't have pinned her in the paint. If Butler is as good as advertised this gives Tuck a great opportunity to work on her game away from the basket andshe'l probably have more open looks when Butler is in which possibly may improve her perimeter confidence.

 

[hoophuskee]

Great shooting numbers indeed but also a very incomplete analysis, with the missing ingredient being volume. KML attempted 248 Three point shots last year and shot it at almost 50%. 6.5 Three point shot attempts per game will need to be replaced in the UCONN offense and based on that I think KLS is best equipped and more likely to start than Butler .

I don't think UCONN needs to replace 6.5 3'ss a game. UCONN doesn't have to be the greatest 3pt shooting team in the history of wcbb or 2nd etc.

Last year we were all worried about losing Dolson's size/height. We found a different way to win. This time we can be real good shooting 3's just not as great as last year. IMO that is fine.

 

[hoophuskee]

Great call on last season on Morgan. I did not expect her to come back so far, so fast.

Geno tends to avoid starting freshmen. KLS will get significant minutes though.

Butler is 'too good not to start' as well. I see Stewart being, well being Stewart, but her skills allow her to play the three, comfortably. I see Morgan as the 4. On defense, I suspect that we will use 'zone principals.' I'd guess an aggressive triangle and two as the go to defense. The Geno version will be unique though. The guards will be able to be very aggressive with Stewart, Butler and Tuck cleaning up any penetration.

I don't agree about the triangle and two. When was the last time you saw UCONN play a junk defense?

If we didn't play a junk defense much when we had Dolson/Stewie and Stokes with KML. Or Stewie/Tuck and STokes with KML, why would we this time?

 

[CL82]

I don't agree about the triangle and two. When was the last time you saw UCONN play a junk defense?

If we didn't play a junk defense much when we had Dolson/Stewie and Stokes with KML. Or Stewie/Tuck and STokes with KML, why would we this time?

Call it what you want but I'm pretty confident that we are going see aggressive guard play to deny long shots and to funnel penetration to bigs. A zone concept protects Natalie and let's us exploit our height advantage.

 

[hoophuskee]

Call it what you want but I'm pretty confident that we are going see aggressive guard play deny long shots and to funnel penteration to bigs.

I like it!!!!!

 

[Kibitzer]

The analogy is not that convincing. Morgan had displayed what she could do at the UCONN level, KatieLou has noy (yet). On the other hand, Butler has displayed what she can do at the UCONN level. I suspect KatieLou will be eased into a role her first year.

So that year in the Big East was "at the UConn level"? You can't be serious.

 

[johnnyc]

So that year in the Big East was "at the UConn level"? You can't be serious.

A season of UConn practices. They are harder than the games we are told.

 

[johnnyc]

Has anyone here actually seen Butler play? Does she have the athleticism to start for this squad? (I'm just asking, I have no idea)

Watched her play on tv a couple of times when she was with Georgetown. I liked her game and brought her name up in discussions about best freshman players. Defense (blocks, altering shots), rebounding and running the floor stood out. The only baskets I saw her make were on put backs.

 

[Boreifs]

This whole discussion should be predicated on two factors:

1) What offense Geno decides to run

2) Who is in the rotation

For example, if Butler starts, any coach would be tempted to run a triple-post offense, with Stewie at the high post. That cuts down on dribble penetration in the lane, but Geno's sets always revolve much more on passing the ball than offense generated off the bounce. I don't think he has ever run a triple post before, although it is so similar to the triangle (which he has run) that the temptation would certainly be there. That offense would also fit very nicely in an eight rotation that included Gabbie as the replacement for Morgan at the four, Collier rotating with Stewie and Natalie (but mostly at the three) and KLS rotating at the guard spot, with Nurse playing the one when MO was sitting. That puts your three best 3-point shooters on the wings and your best passer running the offensive flow from the top of the key.

However, if Geno sticks with his traditional high-low post game, then Natalie is much more valuable as a rotating sub for Stewie and Morgan, with Gabbie most likely starting at the three and Napheesa her most likely sub.

It's very possible he uses both of these sets early in the season, to see which works best offensively and, more importantly, which works best on the defensive end. That latter consideration will certainly be the deciding factor.

I'm not by any means saying that Chong, Boykin and Ekmark are out of the mix for playing time. With 13 players, though, the most likely scenario by midseason is an eight rotation and a backup five.

 

[Huskies Rule]

I would also have to add Tuck with Breanna and Moriah. I believe if it weren't for Stewie, Morgan would be the best player on UCONN. IMHO of course.

SHE WOULD BE, IF MORIAH HAD NEVER LEFT THE STATE OF TEXAS !!

 

[Sluconn Husky]

I'm not by any means saying that Chong, Boykin and Ekmark are out of the mix for playing time.

Chong will play. Getting time for the other two is going to be close to impossible though.

 

[Huskies Rule]

While I'm enthusiastically anticipating what Natalie, Napheesa and Katie Lou will bring to the team next year, after reading all the insightful (yet mostly speculative) comments I'm already starting to feel bad for Saniya, Gabby, Ek and Boykin (Especially Gabby, who provided so many exciting moments last year.) Unless Geno goes deeper into his bench than I'm accustomed to seeing him do, OR unless Saniya, Gabby and Courtney return this year with improved skillsets which they didn't possess last year, OR unless Natalie and the freshmen don't live up to their advanced billing, I fear we're going to have some very unhappy campers seeking playing time.
[Saniya will still get her minutes by being the default 3rd guard]

 

[Bgillon]

So that year in the Big East was "at the UConn level"? You can't be serious.

As opposed to the AAC ? As opposed to high school teams? Now I understand your point. Georgetown's schedule plus a year practising against the two time NC team didn't prepare Butler for UCONN as well as a strong high school schedule. Thanks for the enlightenment.

 

[Kibitzer]

As opposed to the AAC ? As opposed to high school teams? Now I understand your point. Georgetown's schedule plus a year practising against the two time NC team didn't prepare Butler for UCONN as well as a strong high school schedule. Thanks for the enlightenment.

I concede the point

 

[CocoHusky]

I don't think UCONN needs to replace 6.5 3'ss a game. UCONN doesn't have to be the greatest 3pt shooting team in the history of wcbb or 2nd etc.

Last year we were all worried about losing Dolson's size/height. We found a different way to win. This time we can be real good shooting 3's just not as great as last year. IMO that is fine.

As it relates to 3 point shooting, I would disagree that UCONN found a "different" way to win without Dolson in the line up. Over three consecutive championship seasons now the Number of 3Pt attempts, 3Pt Shooting percentage, and ratio of 3pt shot attempts to total shot attempt has been remarkably consistent at >800: 35-37%: 1/3. The UCONN offense of the past three years was highly dependent on the 3Pt shot and the spacing it creates even with Dolson in the line up. The efficiency of KML from beyond the arc was the main ingredient that fueled this success. Simply put, take away KML 3pt numbers and UCONN remains only a slightly above average 3Pt shooting team but not elite. If you are talking about something different-like working through the post more I'm not sure I agree with that either. Why mess up a good thing? Keep the same offense/ratios & use the first 10 games of the season to get KLS 4-5 3pt shot attempts per game. If KLS shoots the 3 ball better than sophomore Bria Hartley (33%) UCONN will be just fine. If she shoots it better or as good as Freshmen KML (38%) you have created a potential beast! Now all we have to do is feed that beast instead of inventing it.

 

[Kibitzer]

In dire need of a bit of god cheer (Red Sox losing 6th in a row, 13-5) I accessed UConn vs. Dayton (Elite Eight last season). You may recall that UConn trailed by one point at halftime, then asserted themselves in the second half to win handily.

Kia, Morgan, and Moriah played well, and Stewie played as only Stewie can play. But the real difference-maker was Kaleena. Time and again, she hit treys that visibly broke the spirit of a spunky team. Nothing like offensive firepower to discourage and defeat an opponent. (Like Stephen Curry may do to the Cavs tonight.)

 

[Gus Mahler]

In dire need of a bit of god cheer (Red Sox losing 6th in a row, 13-5) I accessed UConn vs. Dayton (Elite Eight last season). You may recall that UConn trailed by one point at halftime, then asserted themselves in the second half to win handily.

Kia, Morgan, and Moriah played well, and Stewie played as only Stewie can play. But the real difference-maker was Kaleena. Time and again, she hit treys that visibly broke the spirit of a spunky team. Nothing like offensive firepower to discourage and defeat an opponent. (Like Stephen Curry may do to the Cavs tonight.)

Funny you should say that: I just watched the Texas game again. What a show. Stewie and Moriah were lights out, and Stokes had five or six superb blocks.

Up 42 on a five-seed with 16:30 to play!

 

[Suebird10fan]

Chong will play. Getting time for the other two is going to be close to impossible though.

I tend to agree, although Geno doesn't like to go very deep. If everyone is healthy, even Chong is at risk of DNP-CD in close games (of which there will only be a handful). Unless Geno decides he isn't comfortable with either Gabby or KLS at the 2, in which case Chong probably gets at least seven or eight minutes even in the close ones.

 

[PhillyCoach]

I would just say you seem to have forgotten Kaleena's freshman year and more recently Kia's - not saying you are wrong, but we have pretty recent experience of players coming in as freshman and proving they are up for the task.

UC - agree that there has been lots of success with freshman proving they are up to the task. However, I see a vision of Tuck coming in last year as a junior--(red-shirt soph-with some experience and a year watching and learning.) Likewise, I see the same vision with Butler in that Junior role (red-shirt soph-experience and one year watching/learning.) A buddy of mine said Butler will start, but about the 5th game the super frosh will be banging on the door.

 

[PhillyCoach]

Not sure how important the starting lineup will be next season. In games he anticipates will be competitive, Geno will mix and match-up and will throw multiple looks both offensively and defensively that the other teams will find it hard to deal with. On games that don't figure to be close talent-wise, he may stay with various lineups that he thinks need work.
And one thing is for certain.... any player that doesn't go 100% in practice and on the court will have plenty of time on the bench.

ocoandasoc - good point about practice, However, your statement about Geno mixing and matching and staying with certain line-ups that he thinks needs work--goes against his philosophy of finding the starting 5 and working it 25 to 28 minutes a game until its humming smoothly and seamlessly. Last year when he pulled Chong, the starting 5 was set quickly and stayed there. From what I have seen in the past, Geno does not experiment much and he does not put "next year's starters" on the floor to get them ready for next season. It is all about the here and now & how he can perfect it all before March.

 

[BigBird]

Is it over-simplifying things to say that Butler would take defensive pressure off of Stewie and Morgan? If opponents have to play one v. one defense across the front, it's lights out. Even in a zone, that front makes it difficult for a defense to collapse down low. What am I missing here?

 

[Kibitzer]

Nothing like offensive firepower to discourage and defeat an opponent. (Like Stephen Curry DID to the Cavs tonight.)

Offensive firepower wins games and championships.

 

[Geno-ista]

I love this thread- and Joe Pgh RSVP.
Butler appears the most likely candidate.
But she won't be if she can't drain a 13-17 ft shot fairly consistently. The same as Kiah Stokes.
Gabby, if she has broadened her horizons & an outside jump shot could be that candidate for. 5th starter . Butler subbing for Stewie & Tuck. KLS will be looming off the bench. I know Geno doesn't like to start freshmen - and he won't have to.
I personally think this team will be there bigest offensive juggernaut, possibly ever. And the prospect of Gabby, or KLS or Collier being the 5th player with our obvious core of 4 starters, will be so athletic and so quick up & down the floor- I'm tired thinking about it! Butler looks very athletic as well. The player with the mid range jumper will become our eventual full time starter!

 

[MilfordHusky]

Offensive firepower wins games and championships.

Steph may be both the best dribbler AND best shooter in the league. Possibly ever.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Geno is thinking about doing things that haven't been tried before because it needs a bunch of talented players! Now that he has such a crew we're going to see some WCBB that will be really awesome!
ND, SoCar and Baylor should be the next tier down but REALLY, REALLY DOWN the list!

 

[hoophuskee]

As it relates to 3 point shooting, I would disagree that UCONN found a "different" way to win without Dolson in the line up. Over three consecutive championship seasons now the Number of 3Pt attempts, 3Pt Shooting percentage, and ratio of 3pt shot attempts to total shot attempt has been remarkably consistent at >800: 35-37%: 1/3. The UCONN offense of the past three years was highly dependent on the 3Pt shot and the spacing it creates even with Dolson in the line up. The efficiency of KML from beyond the arc was the main ingredient that fueled this success. Simply put, take away KML 3pt numbers and UCONN remains only a slightly above average 3Pt shooting team but not elite. If you are talking about something different-like working through the post more I'm not sure I agree with that either. Why mess up a good thing? Keep the same offense/ratios & use the first 10 games of the season to get KLS 4-5 3pt shot attempts per game. If KLS shoots the 3 ball better than sophomore Bria Hartley (33%) UCONN will be just fine. If she shoots it better or as good as Freshmen KML (38%) you have created a potential beast! Now all we have to do is feed that beast instead of inventing it.

Ooopps - I wrote a long post why I disagreed with your post. Then I saw your 2nd to last sentence in bold which is one of the reasons why I think we'll be good enough.

IMO KLS has been compared to KML as her near equal in h/s vs h/s if not better or maybe slightly worse. So if KLS is equivalent to KML in h/s as shooters then I have to expect KLS will be at KML level when KML was a frosh. To further that, - imo this team in 2015-2016 is stronger than the team KML joined. thus KLS will get better looks overall. ANd because of height, she can get off more shots. That's why I thought we'd be "good enough."

 

[hoophuskee]

I love this thread- and Joe Pgh RSVP.
Butler appears the most likely candidate.
But she won't be if she can't drain a 13-17 ft shot fairly consistently. The same as Kiah Stokes.
Gabby, if she has broadened her horizons & an outside jump shot could be that candidate for. 5th starter . Butler subbing for Stewie & Tuck. KLS will be looming off the bench. I know Geno doesn't like to start freshmen - and he won't have to.
I personally think this team will be there bigest offensive juggernaut, possibly ever. And the prospect of Gabby, or KLS or Collier being the 5th player with our obvious core of 4 starters, will be so athletic and so quick up & down the floor- I'm tired thinking about it! Butler looks very athletic as well. The player with the mid range jumper will become our eventual full time starter!

I think if Butler can
1-- Defend and rebound.
2-- Be a pretty good threat to score in the paint (unlike Stokes was)
3-- And be able to pass

IMO she'll start all year.

 

[Bigpetunia]

No offense, but whenever ANYONE says, "don't doubt me on this," that is generally the moment that doubt begins to creep into my mind. I do not know who the fifth starter will be, although, as was the case last season, the starting five on opening night will likely not be the starting five a few games into the season. In my opinion, the two most improved players on next year's team will be Kia Nurse and Gabby Williams, both of whom will profit greatly from making the Freshman to Sophomore transition. I would be entirely unsurprised to see Gabby emerge as a starter, with Natalie being used in a role similar to Kiah Stokes last season. Furthermore, I have a feeling that one of the incoming Freshmen, most likely Napheesa, will prove very difficult to keep on the bench. The ONLY thing that looks pretty certain at this point is the cast of four returning starters.

 

[Intpseeker]

I don't agree about the triangle and two. When was the last time you saw UCONN play a junk defense?

If we didn't play a junk defense much when we had Dolson/Stewie and Stokes with KML. Or Stewie/Tuck and STokes with KML, why would we this time?

UConn's "junk" defense is face guarding the opponent's go-to shooter(s), letting who ever is left attempt to beat us.