Natalie Butler will be the 5th starter...don't doubt me on this..!

[Kibitzer]

Last year, before the season began, I caught a lot of flack right here on the Boneyard, for posting: "Morgan Tuck is too good to not start."

So she started 38 or 39 games, all victories and an NC.

I will now double down, so to speak. For the upcoming season, I believe that:

"Katy Lou Samuelson is too good to not start" (at least 35 games)​

 

[mrmojack]

Kibitz, Hope your doing well.

 

[BobbyJ]

Not sure how important the starting lineup will be next season. In games he anticipates will be competitive, Geno will mix and match-up and will throw multiple looks both offensively and defensively that the other teams will find it hard to deal with. On games that don't figure to be close talent-wise, he may stay with various lineups that he thinks need work.
And one thing is for certain.... any player that doesn't go 100% in practice and on the court will have plenty of time on the bench.

Exactly. Auriemma will have plenty of scrimmages prior to the conference tournament to experiment with various lineups. It's all about getting ready for the NCAA tourney and even then he may have different lineups depending on the opposition. He's probably giving it a lot less thought at this point than this board.

 

[j66kicker]

Agree Butler gets the vacant starter spot, to begin with at least. Also agree the 4 returning starters remain starters. To me it always seems like the "getting better as the season progresses" has to do with the players learning to play together, chemistry, really learning the offense together, defensive communication, etc. So... we have 4 returning starters from a dominant national championship team.... Duhhhh?

But Kib has a point. KLS may be hard to keep on the bench. With Butler the team looks more like the 2013-14 team - some learning curve required for the 4 returning starters. If KLS is in instead of Butler then the team looks a lot more like last year's team - very little learning curve for the returning starters. By tournament time they will have mastered these 2 lineups and much more. Better stop now - I'm starting to feel sorry for everyone else....

 

[Jronp]

We know this...this will be the deepest UCONN team I've ever seen. He could have as many as 4 different starting line ups.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I agree with David, though I value Cat's opinion. I think Natalie gives us defense and rebounding. Just as teams had difficulty scoring against our big unit that included Kiah the past 2 years, I think that is our best defensive lineup. As noted, Natalie has a year in the Big East and a year at UConn under her belt. She's also 6'5" and smart.

That said, Kaleena was a key the past 4 years, because she drew the defense. Can Kiah shoot 40% and Moriah 50% if Kaleena is not on the floor? I'm not sure. I think both Morgan and Stewie can improve their 3-point shooting from last season. Both shot below their career norms. I know that Stewie want to improve her shooting next season.

I don't see Morgan playing the 3 in that lineup. I see her at the 4 and Stewie at the 3.

I also think that at least Lou and Napheesa will compete hard for PT. Lou is a scoring machine, and Napheesa does everything well. No team in the country will have a bench player who can match up with them. Few teams will have starters who can match up.

Unlike some others, I don't see Morgan losing her starting job. She'll be an AA next year. I also think that Kia keeps hers.

 

[NewCorn]

Last year, before the season began, I caught a lot of flack right here on the Boneyard, for posting: "Morgan Tuck is too good to not start."

So she started 38 or 39 games, all victories and an NC.

I will now double down, so to speak. For the upcoming season, I believe that:

"Katy Lou Samuelson is too good to not start" (at least 35 games)​

That's a truly bold prediction given the talent level on this team. KLS will have to make strides on defense to make this happen.

 

[CocoHusky]

Do you honestly think Kia and Tuck don't have their ticket punched? There's really only one spot up for grabs. There are no better alternatives to Tuck and Kia.

You have to factor in the position to be played So yes Butler maybe a better alternative at Center than Morgan or Stewie because she is 6'5" with bulk. Likewise KLS maybe a better alternative at the SF than Morgan or Stewie because she stretches the defense and give the post isolation players more room/time to operate in the lane. The Pheenom might be the best alternative at the SF because she is the can defend the perimeter best. Lots of options and who starts is sort of a red herring IMO because I just don't see any competitive 4th quarters for UCONN next season. Chong and Gabby also seem to be getting little to no consideration of starting.

 

[Gus Mahler]

MilfordHusky said, "I don't see Morgan playing the 3 in that lineup. I see her at the 4 and Stewie at the 3."

Yup. Plus, it'll give Stewie good practice for the pros.

 

[chrissaran]

What you said about Natalie Butler isn't anything new. Many of the Boneyarders have posted similar thoughts. As for the second best Husky it's Moriah, who even Breanna admitted should have been the MOP of the Final Four.

 

[Gus Mahler]

I want to build slightly on a point made by another poster in a different thread a few days ago. Forgive me, I don't remember who.

But wouldn't it be fun to come out of a timeout with a lineup of Butler, Stewart, Tuck, Samuelson, and Nurse? No starter below 6'! Can you imagine being a typical 2-guard on the opposing team, say 5'8" or 5'9", and have to guard a player SIX INCHES taller?

Normally I'm not into humiliating opponents, but wouldn't be fun to freak them out a little? Just for a while . . .

 

[hoophuskee]

You have to factor in the position to be played So yes Butler maybe a better alternative at Center than Morgan or Stewie because she is 6'5" with bulk. Likewise KLS maybe a better alternative at the SF than Morgan or Stewie because she stretches the defense and give the post isolation players more room/time to operate in the lane. The Pheenom might be the best alternative at the SF because she is the can defend the perimeter best. Lots of options and who starts is sort of a red herring IMO because I just don't see any competitive 4th quarters for UCONN next season. Chong and Gabby also seem to be getting little to no consideration of starting.

You're not suggesting a starting of

Butler, Stewie, KLS, Kiah and MoJeff are you? Didn't we show last year this lineup of Stewie and Tuck works? So we're going to go backwards and start more youth just because of "height and weight?"

For anyone that thinks that Tuck won't start - just a reminder that Maya wasn't a starter to start with.

IMO I agree with others-- there is one starting position to be had.

 

[Bayareahusky]

We are talking about players...... What about the offense Geno is running? Is it Dolsonesque or is it a hybrid of last year?

If i were betting, I would think she starts, but it is not a huge deal she will get plenty of minutes

 

[DavidinNaples]

What you said about Natalie Butler isn't anything new. Many of the Boneyarders have posted similar thoughts. As for the second best Husky it's Moriah, who even Breanna admitted should have been the MOP of the Final Four.

Thanks for that brilliant and extended analysis.

 

[connboy77]

I agree with David, though I value Cat's opinion. I think Natalie gives us defense and rebounding. Just as teams had difficulty scoring against our big unit that included Kiah the past 2 years, I think that is our best defensive lineup. As noted, Natalie has a year in the Big East and a year at UConn under her belt. She's also 6'5" and smart.

That said, Kaleena was a key the past 4 years, because she drew the defense. Can Kiah shoot 40% and Moriah 50% if Kaleena is not on the floor? I'm not sure. I think both Morgan and Stewie can improve their 3-point shooting from last season. Both shot below their career norms. I know that Stewie want to improve her shooting next season.

I don't see Morgan playing the 3 in that lineup. I see her at the 4 and Stewie at the 3.

I also think that at least Lou and Napheesa will compete hard for PT. Lou is a scoring machine, and Napheesa does everything well. No team in the country will have a bench player who can match up with them. Few teams will have starters who can match up.

Unlike some others, I don't see Morgan losing her starting job. She'll be an AA next year. I also think that Kia keeps hers.

I agree, there isn't any way that Morgan and Kia don't start next year. UCONN has a lot of talent on the bench that would start for most teams in the country.

 

[Kibitzer]

That's a truly bold prediction given the talent level on this team. KLS will have to make strides on defense to make this happen.

Is it possible that some Boneyarders are underestimating Lou's defensive skills? How bad can she be? Especially after a couple months chasing Stewie in practice, not to mention having Geno, CD and Marisa riding her ass.

There is also a "convenience factor" to consider. Lou replaces KLM and Natalie replaces Kiah -- a seamless transition.

 

[johnnyc]

Unlike some others, I don't see Morgan losing her starting job. She'll be an AA next year. I also think that Kia keeps hers.

Whoa! I thought this thread was about Butler starting? Who said anything about Tuck not starting. That's crazy talk!

 

[UcMiami]

Is it possible that some Boneyarders are underestimating Lou's defensive skills? How bad can she be? Especially after a couple months chasing Stewie in practice, not to mention having Geno, CD and Marisa riding her ass.

There is also a "convenience factor" to consider. Lou replaces KLM and Natalie replaces Kiah -- a seamless transition.

Oh, I think Geno and CD can do better at breaking down Lou, than assigning her to guard Stewart - I foresee her being assigned Moriah to chase around the court!!!

'Come on Lou - keep her in front of you! Again! Again! Sheesh, maybe we should just put a chair on the court and see if you can guard that! Again!'

Not saying they are cruel or anything!

 

[jdubct]

I just watched the 2015 NCAA tournament game versus Imani Stafford (6'7") and Texas, a tough matchup for Uconn's frontcourt. Kiah Stokes came in blocked shots, rebounded, set screens and defended Stafford, freeing Stewart up somewhat and a relatively close game broke wide open. I'm not saying the 6'5" Butler will or won't start, but it seems likely she will play 20 to 25 minutes per game bringing defense, rebounding and at least some scoring to the games.

 

[hoophuskee]

I just watched the 2015 NCAA tournament game versus Imani Stafford (6'7") and Texas, a tough matchup for Uconn's frontcourt. Kiah Stokes came in blocked shots, rebounded, set screens and defended Stafford, freeing Stewart up somewhat and a relatively close game broke wide open. I'm not saying the 6'5" Butler will or won't start, but it seems likely she will play 20 to 25 minutes per game bringing defense, rebounding and at least some scoring to the games.

I forgot to mention Texas as well. Nice call. And while agree with you to an extent (in addition I think NB starts)- I don't think Butler sees an average of 25 minutes. I think there will be games we'll hear from our coach "that she is the worst center in America" not to mention many blowouts so he wants to see other lineups etc.

And what about the games vs Dayton and South Carolina? How many minutes was Stokes needed? Also- as for being "free" - Stewie was still free against both without Stokes.

 

[Shenandoah]

I have to agree with the OP. Starting Butler frees Stewie to become an even more of a matchup nightmare than last year.
FREE STEWIE!!!

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Natalie Butler WILL start! MoJeff, Stewie, Morgan, and Nurse will join her!
IMO Natalie Butler will be a Steph Dolson clone in ability and personality! She's lost a heck of a lot of weight already and has perfected her UCONN moves/technique in this year-off! In videos out there her personality is "out there" as Miss Dolson was/is! She'll be able to run the court and keep UCONN moving on all cylinders! They won't miss a beat!
As I've and some others have stated often, this will be the coaching staffs most athletic team ever!
This will be as enjoyable a group to watch perform as any from 1995 on has been!

 

[EricSD]

David, you could easily be right, but it's no sure thing. The biggest argument against your conclusion is that a Natalie / Stewie / Morgan / Kia / Moriah lineup would have two potential weaknesses: (a) there would be no major threat from the 3-point line in that lineup; and (b) it would force Morgan to play at the 3, which is not her optimal position on either offense or defense. Is she really quick enough to guard a fast, penetrating wing? Can she really be enough of an outside shooting threat to force defenses to guard her jump shot?

No major 3 point threat? Moriah had a 3-point % that was better than KML's for stretches last season and she ended at .496 - higher than KML's .488. Nurse ended the season at over 40%. Morgan's 3 point shot was horrid at the start of the season but she managed to hit more in the 2nd half and bumped her average to just under 30%. That's quite an accomplishment since at the midpoint it was about 16%. Stewie had a lousy year from the 3 point line, I'll grant you that.

Last year, our best lineup was when Stokes was in the game, IMHO. What Stokes gave up on offense to Nurse was offset by what she provided on defense. I know it's possible that Geno will go with another lineup, but I think Mo, Kia, Morgan, Stewie and Natalie will give UCONN it's most potent team on offense AND defense. Having Chong, Williams, Collier, Boykin and Samuelson off the bench gives Geno guards, wings and forwards to bring in. If Butler comes out, Stewie can slide over.

I don't expect to see much of Ekmark next year unless she makes huge strides over the summer. This will be the first time in many years that Geno has legitimately 10 players who are good to great to choose from...

 

[hoophuskee]

I have to agree with the OP. Starting Butler frees Stewie to become an even more of a matchup nightmare than last year.
FREE STEWIE!!!

I read this often. I don't understand it. Why do you think she'll be more free with Butler? Last year if a center guarded her - she could shoot from anywhere outside. There were 4 shooters surrounding her last year. No with Butler the player that guards her will sag off and help inside. SO if Stewie wants to post things get more jumbled. SO how does that "free Stwart more?" When Stokes came in - was STeiw more free?

I do agree Butler can be a better pick setter.

 

[hoophuskee]

No major 3 point threat? Moriah had a 3-point % that was better than KML's for stretches last season and she ended at .496 - higher than KML's .488. Nurse ended the season at over 40%. Morgan's 3 point shot was horrid at the start of the season but she managed to hit more in the 2nd half and bumped her average to just under 30%. That's quite an accomplishment since at the midpoint it was about 16%. Stewie had a lousy year from the 3 point line, I'll grant you that.

Last year, our best lineup was when Stokes was in the game, IMHO. What Stokes gave up on offense to Nurse was offset by what she provided on defense. I know it's possible that Geno will go with another lineup, but I think Mo, Kia, Morgan, Stewie and Natalie will give UCONN it's most potent team on offense AND defense. Having Chong, Williams, Collier, Boykin and Samuelson off the bench gives Geno guards, wings and forwards to bring in. If Butler comes out, Stewie can slide over.

I don't expect to see much of Ekmark next year unless she makes huge strides over the summer. This will be the first time in many years that Geno has legitimately 10 players who are good to great to choose from...

I don't agree with the bold at all in terms of context. . Not saying some games like Texas and the 1st ND game she wasn't. But games like South Carolina and Dayton she didn't or couldn't play according to the coach.

 

[Waquoit]

Has anyone here actually seen Butler play? Does she have the athleticism to start for this squad? (I'm just asking, I have no idea)

 

[msf22b]

The forgotten player in this thread is Napheesa Collier.

I'm not insinuating she will start right off the bat but if you want a Swin clone, she strikes me as the nearest best thing.

She's perhaps the most defensively mature as a freshman and could even challenge Kia at the 2.
This kid is going to demand minutes (in the most polite way).

Gabby... I have no idea where she fits in (or at what position).

 

[UConnCat]

Putting Natalie with the other 4 starters would create terrible spacing on offense. On defense, that lineup would be slow(er) and not very athletic thus requiring Geno to play zone. When was the last time Geno started off a game playing zone?

I think he'll start either Lou (help space the floor on offense) or Gabby (athleticism on defense) in Kaleena's spot. Both Gabby and Lou create issues on one end of the floor but not both ends of the floor like Natalie would in that lineup.

 

[CocoHusky]

Moriah = 50% 3pt for the 2015 season
Nurse = 41% 3pt for 2015
Stewie = 33% 3pt career

Great shooting numbers indeed but also a very incomplete analysis, with the missing ingredient being volume. KML attempted 248 Three point shots last year and shot it at almost 50%. 6.5 Three point shot attempts per game will need to be replaced in the UCONN offense and based on that I think KLS is best equipped and more likely to start than Butler .

 

[Bgillon]

Last year, before the season began, I caught a lot of flack right here on the Boneyard, for posting: "Morgan Tuck is too good to not start."

So she started 38 or 39 games, all victories and an NC.

I will now double down, so to speak. For the upcoming season, I believe that:

"Katy Lou Samuelson is too good to not start" (at least 35 games)​

The analogy is not that convincing. Morgan had displayed what she could do at the UCONN level, KatieLou has noy (yet). On the other hand, Butler has displayed what she can do at the UCONN level. I suspect KatieLou will be eased into a role her first year.