I think your views about Napheesa are quite harsh, and not justified. She has shown repeatedly that she CAN get contested rebounds, and she is slippery enough to get layups and short jump shots against bigger but less mobile players. Her shooting accuracy in these two games was not great, but that should improve in short order. (The same could be said of Lou.)
Regarding the team's prospects and their dependence on Butler's performance, I think that is also overstated. Remember that last year's team won every NCAA tournament game except the Texas game by a margin of 30 points or more, and Texas was by around 18 or 20. The lack of a dominating post presence this year may cost 10 points or even 15 in the margin of victory, but it doesn't spell doom.
Having read some WWII naval history, I'm thinking that this year's team is a fleet of cruisers and destroyers, and it will face other teams with one or more battleships. The battleships aren't as quick or as maneuverable as the cruisers and destroyers, but they are very deadly if you get within range of their guns. But there are cases (such as the sinking of the Bismarck) where the smaller and more maneuverable ships won the battle, and UConn should be as well situated to do that as any such fleet.
Baylor will be a test case. The Huskies will be nipping at the heels of the very big Bears, and the Bears may find that highly unpleasant, especially if they have to chase Gabby / Kia / Saniya / Crystal down the floor several times after being relieved of the ball. That is why Geno has said that this year, UConn's defense has to be responsible for a big part of its offense. I predict that Geno will use the same strategy as he did last year against South Carolina: pick up the Baylor guards as soon as they cross mid-court, forcing a very long and contested pass into the front court. If Baylor's guards can be forced to focus on retaining possession of the ball rather than starting their offense, and if they occasionally fail even to do that, then UConn will win the game.
I certainly agree that the better Natalie proves to be this year (and she looked very good yesterday), and the better Kyla is backing her up, the better the team's chances are. But I don't think a Final Four appearance can be excluded as a realistic possibility even if we see no more from those two during the season than we have already seen.
Remember how much trouble Georgetown gave UConn in the Sweet Sixteen in 2011, with no player taller than 6-0. That was a far closer game than the Elite 8 game against Duke, who had much bigger players.