Natalie Butler continues to tear it up

[Mainiac]

I was just checking and found that Natalie's career DD's for games started are up there:
GT 24 of 32 = 75%
UConn 1 of 1 = 100% (she has 2 but only started 1 game)
GM 15 of 16 = 93%
Total 40 of 46 = 87%

 

[Roger G]

Just a few caveat points:

1. I would be careful about drawing analogies to last year's draft, because this year's draft class is considerably better and deeper.
2. I would also be careful about comparing Natalie's stats to those of Saicha Grant-Allen last year. Dayton played a difficult OOC schedule, ranked as the #27 nonconference SOS in the country. George Mason's nonconference SOS is currently ranked #289 in the country.
   
3. Since the Michigan game was the season opener for George Mason, I'm not sure how much Michigan would have known to key on Natalie.

I generally refrain from draft prognostications, but I'd be surprised if she was selected first round. We shall see.

Your first two points have some validity, but as to Michigan not realizing the girl who used to play at UConn was by far the best on her team and the one they really needed to stop, that's a hard sell. I'm sure the Michigan staff was well aware of her history. It's not like she wasn't freshman of the year at Georgetown and played two years at UConn. It's not like she suddenly wasn't 6'5". Maybe you could explain that better.

 

[JSB60]

I think she's a late first/early second round pick. I don't care what her weaknesses are, she
s a 6'5 rebounding machine.

 

[cbraarj]

While I agree that Stokes was a much better player in college there was little support for her being a 1st round pick outside of the UConn fanbase. The common line was "how can a non-starter go in the 1st round? And when she was picked there were comments around the boards questioning the choice. Of course after her 1st few games in NY those voices shut up and sat down.
Butler played behind 3 AA's last year. That fact is forgotten by many.

They were not AAs until end of season.

 

[BroadwayVa]

I think she's a late first/early second round pick. I don't care what her weaknesses are, she
s a 6'5 rebounding machine.

What are her weaknesses?

 

[bballnut90]

There are twelve teams in the WNBA. At least twenty-four players would have to been seen as more valuable than Natalie for her to go in the third round. If Natalie is not seen as more valuable than twenty-four other players drafted in the Spring, I would... well, be very surprised. For one thing, she's tall. You can't teach that. And the pros really value height because of the style of play. Secondly, she has shown she can score. Thirdly, she is leading the country in rebounding. And against the one quality opponent she faced, Michigan, the one you brought up, a quality team that was certainly keying on her way more than anyone else, she came up one rebound short of a double double. Wow! That was pretty darn good. We have all seen players against quality opponents fall flat on their faces when everyone is focused on them. Did Natalie? Not by a long shot. She scored in double figures.

By the way, when Natalie was freshman of the year, it was in the Big East. She now plays in the Atlantic 10. And just for comparison, think about this. A center for the Dayton Flyers, an Atlantic 10 team, was picked by Brian Agler and the Los Angeles Sparks last year in the third round. She averaged 9.9 points and 8.6 rebounds. Those were not exactly Natalie numbers. As a freshman, Butler put up 13.9 and 13.28. This year's averages: 18.7 and 14.9. Outstanding, whomever one's opponents are and way better than the comparative third round Atlantic 10 center.

Barring injury, my guess is that Natalie should be going in the late first round or at worst early second.

24 players who will likely be selected ahead of Butler:
Aja Wilson
Kelsey Mitchell
Stephanie Mavunga
Linnae Harper
Gabby Williams
Kia Nurse
Rebecca Greenwell
Lexie Brown
Diamond Deshields
Jaime Nared
Mercedes Russell
Jordin Canada
Monique Billings
Shakayla Thomas
Victoria Vivians
Tyler Scaife
Katelynn Flaherty
Ariel Atkins
Kaylee Jensen
Loryn Goodwin
Brooke McCarty
Myisha Hines-Allen
Maria Vadeeva
Teana Muldrow

Natalie had 13/9 against a fringe top 25 team, those aren't bad numbers but a lot of players who will never make a WNBA roster do that too. It's worth noting too that her counterpart, Hallie Thome of Michigan, had 15/12 in a double digit win. I'm also willing to guess that Michigan probably didn't focus special attention on Natalie the very first game of the season. Her best performance of the season so far (35/19) was against Houston who didn't play a single player over 6 feet. That's a great performance, but it's not one that is going to boost her draft stock.

Last year's draft was also one of the weakest drafts ever. I wouldn't be surprised if half of the first round picks last year don't make a team this season. Even Nunn got picked who averaged 4.8 points and 4.5 boards off the bench for a team that wasn't in the top 25. It was that bad. If Butler opted for the draft last year, she would have had a better shot of getting picked in the 2nd round than she will this year.

I'm happy for Natalie that she's having a great senior season-- she seems like a good kid and is dominating her conference--but her doing well in the A-10 doesn't mean she's a WNBA caliber post player.

 

[bballnut90]

While I agree that Stokes was a much better player in college there was little support for her being a 1st round pick outside of the UConn fanbase. The common line was "how can a non-starter go in the 1st round? And when she was picked there were comments around the boards questioning the choice. Of course after her 1st few games in NY those voices shut up and sat down.
Butler played behind 3 AA's last year. That fact is forgotten by many.

Stokes was a much stronger prospect than Butler though. Stokes was a better rebounder, defender and athlete than Natalie.

Per 40 minutes at UCONN in 2014-15, Stokes averaged 14.8 rebounds and 8.2 blocks per game. She also shot 57% from the floor, had a positive A/TO ratio and had a dominant performance against Notre Dame where she grabbed 18 rebounds. She was also playing behind 6-4 Stewart, and 6-2 Tuck.


Per 40 minutes at UCONN in 2016-17, Natalie averaged 12.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game. She shot 50% from the floor, had a 0.7:1 A/TO ratio and seldom contributed in big games. She also had a great opportunity to earn more playing time, as Connecticut had no height during their 36-1 season, and she could have filled the role Kiah Stokes did for UCONN 2 years ago as the big post off the bench.

Stokes was also drafted in 2015 which was a much weaker draft than 2018 will be. The only players who've become rotation players are Loyd, Boyd, Stokes, Williams, Hamby and Harrison. 2018 could easily have 10-15 players that become long tenured pros.

 

[Roger G]

24 players who will likely be selected ahead of Butler:
Aja Wilson
Kelsey Mitchell
Stephanie Mavunga
Linnae Harper
Gabby Williams
Kia Nurse
Rebecca Greenwell
Lexie Brown
Diamond Deshields
Jaime Nared
Mercedes Russell
Jordin Canada
Monique Billings
Shakayla Thomas
Victoria Vivians
Tyler Scaife
Katelynn Flaherty
Ariel Atkins
Kaylee Jensen
Loryn Goodwin
Brooke McCarty
Myisha Hines-Allen
Maria Vadeeva
Teana Muldrow

Natalie had 13/9 against a fringe top 25 team, those aren't bad numbers but a lot of players who will never make a WNBA roster do that too. It's worth noting too that her counterpart, Hallie Thome of Michigan, had 15/12 in a double digit win. I'm also willing to guess that Michigan probably didn't focus special attention on Natalie the very first game of the season. Her best performance of the season so far (35/19) was against Houston who didn't play a single player over 6 feet. That's a great performance, but it's not one that is going to boost her draft stock.

Last year's draft was also one of the weakest drafts ever. I wouldn't be surprised if half of the first round picks last year don't make a team this season. Even Nunn got picked who averaged 4.8 points and 4.5 boards off the bench for a team that wasn't in the top 25. It was that bad. If Butler opted for the draft last year, she would have had a better shot of getting picked in the 2nd round than she will this year.

I'm happy for Natalie that she's having a great senior season-- she seems like a good kid and is dominating her conference--but her doing well in the A-10 doesn't mean she's a WNBA caliber post player.

Whether I agree with it or not, I am impressed by the work you put in to make that list.

But I still don't get the idea that on the one hand all the Atlantic 10 supposedly stinks, but Michigan was going to be really stupid and not pay special attention to the girl who previously played (pretty decently) at UConn and was the Big East freshman of the year. I mean, it was pretty obvious to any observer that Natalie was going to be the biggest contributor on her team. I also don't agree with the idea, as I've stated again and again, that last year's WNBA draft was particularly weak, but we'll wait to see if your test pans out and half of the 1st round picks don't stick. Remember that the great and dominating Saniya Chong was picked in the third round. Another thing, if Natalie's best game was against Houston, an AAC team, that is kind of peculiar. Since the Atlantic 10 is chopped liver, you would think that she would have her best games against teams from her own conference. It's got to make you wonder whether, if given the chance in the AAC, she would be putting up similar or perhaps better numbers.

In the end, it won't be my opinion or yours that matters. The GM's and coaches will decide. And the rest of the season will mean a lot.

 

[bballnut90]

Whether I agree with it or not, I am impressed by the work you put in to make that list.

But I still don't get the idea that on the one hand all the Atlantic 10 supposedly stinks, but Michigan was going to be really stupid and not pay special attention to the girl who previously played (pretty decently) at UConn and was the Big East freshman of the year. I mean, it was pretty obvious to any observer that Natalie was going to be the biggest contributor on her team. I also don't agree with the idea, as I've stated again and again, that last year's WNBA draft was particularly weak, but we'll wait to see if your test pans out and half of the 1st round picks don't stick. Remember that the great and dominating Saniya Chong was picked in the third round. Another thing, if Natalie's best game was against Houston, an AAC team, that is kind of peculiar. Since the Atlantic 10 is chopped liver, you would think that she would have her best games against teams from her own conference. It's got to make you wonder whether, if given the chance in the AAC, she would be putting up similar or perhaps better numbers.

In the end, it won't be my opinion or yours that matters. The GM's and coaches will decide. And the rest of the season will mean a lot.

Valid points...especially the last one that neither of our input really matters at all haha. That said, I don't think it was necessarily obvious she'd be the biggest contributor. She did excel as a freshman, but she didn't show anything at UCONN that would indicate her being a dominant force at George Mason. I didn't see the game, but I'm guessing that Thome guarded her one on one most of the night. Butler still got 12 shots off (the same number as a couple of other players, too) so while I'm sure an effort was made to stop her, I'm not convinced the focal point of Michigan's defense was to clog up the middle and stop Butler. I could be wrong, that's my best guess without seeing the game.

Chong playing in the W was a surprise to a lot of people. I didn't see it coming, and she was the only 3rd round pick to play a full season. That said, in hindsight maybe it shouldn't have been very surprising. She had an outstanding senior season as the starting PG for UCONN. She averaged 8.3 points, 4 assists, boasted the nation's 4th best A/TO ratio, and she shot well from the floor and 3pt line while playing against some of the best competition in the country. Very solid resume and results against good competition.

To highlight how weak the 2017 class was...the only players from the 2017 class who averaged over 5ppg were Sykes, Davis, Gray and Plum. Coates might be added to the list next year. For comparison sake, see how other classes have done:
2017 class: 4 drafted rookies average 5ppg or more
2016 class had 11 drafted rookies average 5ppg or better
2015 was weak with just 6
2014 was stellar with 12
2013 was top heavy but weak overall with just 6
2012 had 9 players
2011 had 8 players


And Butler hasn't gotten into the meat of A10 play yet, so that remains to be seen. Her team's SOS right now is 299 out of 349, so the A10 will actually be a solid step up from most of the competition she's faced thus far. Curious to see how the rest of the season pans out for her--she's been stellar thus far.

 

[Biff]

Please do not copy material from other sights that may have copyrights.

 

[ed4ourgirls]

My guess is that Natalie, if she wants to play pro ball, will end up in one of the weaker
overseas leagues (e.g. Israel). I wish her all the best though. She worked hard at UConn
and seemed to be a lovely person as well.

 

[HopJim]

My guess is that Natalie, if she wants to play pro ball, will end up in one of the weaker
overseas leagues (e.g. Israel). I wish her all the best though. She worked hard at UConn
and seemed to be a lovely person as well.

Per my previous post, totally agree. Nothing wrong with making alot of money and getting paid to see Europe or Asia. What stands out to me is that she seems to be playing relaxed and with a joy you hope every college player can experience.

 

[Roger G]

George Mason is playing George Washington tonight on CBS SN. With her last game, Natalie posted her 15th straight double double. She is tied for first in the nation in double doubles. She is only the 15th player in Division I history to post 15 straight double doubles.

 

[augustaTC]

George Mason is playing George Washington tonight on CBS SN. With her last game, Natalie posted her 15th straight double double. She is tied for first in the nation in double doubles. She is only the 15th player in Division I history to post 15 straight double doubles.

Thanks for the heads up. Jen vs Nat - should be an interesting game. Looking forward to watching Butler!

 

[Roger G]

Thanks for the heads up. Jen vs Nat - should be an interesting game. Looking forward to watching Butler!

Yes, serious UConn connections.

 

[Roger G]

Tonight Natalie posted another double double, her sixteenth straight which leads the nation. She had 16 points and 18 rebounds in a losing effort. She leads the nation in rebounding too. She is only the 11th player ever to have 16 consecutive double doubles.