My Annual...Points / Rebound Prediction Thread

[cferraro04]

Pivot Points:

1. Brianna Stewart / Morgan Tuck / Moriah Jefferson - 45.7 14.4
2. Total Points and Rebounds - 88.1 40.7
3. Points and Rebounds against UConn - 48.3 29.6
4. Chrystal Dangerfield averaged as a senior - 23.9 points, 5.2 rebounds
5. Kyla Irvin averaged as a senior - 26.5 points, 12.2 rebounds
6. Molly Bent averaged as a sophomore - 28.0 points, 8 rebounds
7. Breanna Stewart averaged 29.1 minutes per game
8. Morgan Tuck averaged 26.8 minutes per game
9. Moriah Jefferson 30.9 minutes per game
10. There is a total of 86.8 minutes available


......................................................................old stats........................................New projected stats

Nurse 28.3 minutes 9.3>>>>1.9.....................28.3 minutes 12.0>>>>3.0

Gabby 18.6 minutes 8.8 >>>5.6.....................25 minutes 14.0>>>>>9.0

KLS 23.5 minutes 11.0>>>3.4....................27 minutes 16.0>>>>>>4.0

Napheesa 17.2 minutes 6.8>>>5.2...................24 minutes 12.0>>>>>>8.0

Butler 12.0 minutes 5.6>>>4.0.....................20 minutes 9.0>>>>>8.0

Chong 12.4 minutes 3.7>>>1.3.......................16 minutes 6.0>>>>>2.0

Dangerfield .......................10 minutes 5.0>>>>>>1.0

Irwin .........................4 minutes 4.0>>>>>>3.0

Bent ........................3.4 minutes 2.0>>>>>1.0

Lawler 3.0 minutes .3>>.1 .........................3.0 minutes N/A>>>>>N/A

.................................Total.......................................................................... 80..................................38

 

[Kibitzer]

Dangerfield will play more minutes (20+) and score more points (about 8-10)

 

[geneticrex]

I would love to see Collier average 12ppg, and like 'Kib', I believe Dangerfield will earn more playing time.

 

[AAADog]

Dangerfield will play more minutes (20+) and score more points (about 8-10)

Yes, I think she will get a few of Kia's minutes. I also think Irwin or Bent, depending on which comes along faster, will get a few more minutes, probably from Lawler & Chong.

 

[Shorty Dee]

I think Kia will play 38 minutes; Crystal will play 20 minutes; Natalie will play 10 minutes; Kyla 10 minutes and Molly 5 minutes. I also think Saniya will have less minutes.

 

[EricLA]

Your guesses are as good as anyone's this time of the year. Having said that last season we had a legit 10 players and then the 2 walk ons made 12. Even Ekmark averaged about 9 minutes per game while the walk ons averaged about 3. There's no reason to believe Tierney will get any more than 4 MPG this season but now with only 9, I suspect that Molly and Kyla will average at least close to Ekmark minutes. Probably about 10 MPG for both of them.

I think there are enough blowout opportunities where they will see good minutes... unless they simply don't grasp what Geno needs from them on offense and defense. Ekmark certainly grasped it, hence her 9 MPG, but she simply wasn't athletic enough or a good enough shooter, etc, to earn more minutes...

 

[Kibitzer]

Your guesses are as good as anyone's this time of the year. Having said that last season we had a legit 10 players and then the 2 walk ons made 12. Even Ekmark averaged about 9 minutes per game while the walk ons averaged about 3.

We had no walk-ons last season. Lawlor and Pulido had both earned BB scholarship status.

 

[rugbymate]

Overall, IMO, it is a pretty good forecast. However, Chong and Mo averaged over 17 min/gm and Nurse 25min/gm in their freshman years....so given that Crystal Dangerfield is the heir apparent to Mo , unless she totally misses the mark performance wise, we can expect her to get closer to 20 min than 10.
Of course, if you could break down your forecast into out of conference teams vs all the rest they would look very different.

 

[Go/huskies]

I like Gabby going for 14 and 9 this season, but if she does lead the team in rebounds and is second in scoring, then I can't see her not in a starting role. She reminds me of Barbara Turner or "The Worm, Gabby can guard Tiffany Mitchell on one end and still lead the team in offensive rebounds on the other.

 

[JSB60]

The total minutes add up to 160.7. It needs to be 200, so I'd think more like:

Nurse 34
Gabby 30
KLS 32
Napheesa 32
Butler 20
Dangerfield 25
Chong 17
Irwin 4
Bent 3
Lawler 3

 

[AAADog]

The total minutes add up to 160.7. It needs to be 200, so I'd think more like:

Nurse 34
Gabby 30
KLS 32
Napheesa 32
Butler 20
Dangerfield 25
Chong 17
Irwin 4
Bent 3
Lawler 3

Good Catch! It looks good. I would increase Irwin & Bent a couple but that is just "splitting hairs".

 

[RockyMTblue2]

I'll score a lot of points, being a streaky shooting guard, and 0 offensive rebounds because I believe all my shots will fall, 0 defensive rebounds because that's not my job. Guess who I am. Hint, I'm not a UConn player. Official digression alert!

 

[UcMiami]

The total minutes add up to 160.7. It needs to be 200, so I'd think more like:

Nurse 34
Gabby 30
KLS 32
Napheesa 32
Butler 20
Dangerfield 25
Chong 17
Irwin 4
Bent 3
Lawler 3

I will be surprised if any player averages more than 30 minutes with the exception of perhaps Lou. And those eight plus minutes I think end up with Irwin and Bent. While we didn't have walk ons last year or this, there is a significant difference between Polly/Lawlor and Irwin/Bent in terms of possessing the raw D1 talent requisite to receive more serious minutes. I suspect they will both average 10+ minutes this year, and might surprise with significantly more.

 

[BobbyJ]

I will be surprised if any player averages more than 30 minutes with the exception of perhaps Lou. And those eight plus minutes I think end up with Irwin and Bent. While we didn't have walk ons last year or this, there is a significant difference between Polly/Lawlor and Irwin/Bent in terms of possessing the raw D1 talent requisite to receive more serious minutes. I suspect they will both average 10+ minutes this year, and might surprise with significantly more.

I agree because I think the need will be there as I believe this team may be foul prone. As I've said before, I just have a good feeling about Bent and if Chong isn't able to step up for whatever reason I can see Bent getting some serious minutes.

 

[Suebird10fan]

I will be surprised if any player averages more than 30 minutes with the exception of perhaps Lou. And those eight plus minutes I think end up with Irwin and Bent. While we didn't have walk ons last year or this, there is a significant difference between Polly/Lawlor and Irwin/Bent in terms of possessing the raw D1 talent requisite to receive more serious minutes. I suspect they will both average 10+ minutes this year, and might surprise with significantly more.

Always hesitant to disagree with you UcMiami ... but, given Geno's predilection for a short bench, the possibility that one of the freshmen just doesn't meet Geno's high standard for meaningful minutes, the tough schedule (i.e. more games where the last couple players get 0 minutes), and a much-diminished number of 40+ point blowouts (fewer games where the last couple players get more than a few minutes), I expect the minutes to be very concentrated on six or seven players. And that is all without considering injuries. I'd be very surprised if the number of players averaging > or = 30.0 minutes isn't two or more.

 

[UcMiami]

Always hesitant to disagree with you UcMiami ... but, given Geno's predilection for a short bench, the possibility that one of the freshmen just doesn't meet Geno's high standard for meaningful minutes, the tough schedule (i.e. more games where the last couple players get 0 minutes), and a much-diminished number of 40+ point blowouts (fewer games where the last couple players get more than a few minutes), I expect the minutes to be very concentrated on six or seven players. And that is all without considering injuries. I'd be very surprised if the number of players averaging > or = 30.0 minutes isn't two or more.

Got me wondering about the history of the program in terms of minutes, so:
2016 - Moriah (SR) over 30 minutes/game - no one else
2015 - no one over 30 minutes
2014 - Dolson (SR), Hartley (SR) Stewart (SO) over 30 minutes
2013 - Mosqueda-Lewis (So)
2012 - Hayes (SR), Hartley (SO)
2011 - Moore (SR) Hayes (JR), Faris (So), Hartley (FR)
2010 - None
2009 - Moore (SO), Montgomery (SR)
2008 - Montgomery (JR)
2007 - Thomas (JR), Montgomery (SO)
2006 - Strother (SR)
2005 - Strother (JR)
2004 - Taurasi (SR)
2003 - Taurasi (JR) Strother (FR)

The two that stand out are:
2011 where the fifth starter was Dolson and the only consistent bench player was Dixon (SR) with the rest being Buck RS/SO, Walker FR (transfer mid season) Engeln FR (future transfer) Johnson FR (future transfer)
2014 - Tuck only played 8 games and the request for walk-ons added Lawlor and Pulido to make up numbers for practice.

With this year's team, even after losing the big three and Pulido, and barring injury, the team will still have a solid seven player rotation with Chong, Nurse, Williams, Butler, Samuelson, Collier, and Dangerfield, and that Geno will need to get Irwin and Bent into the flow as well. The team is pretty balanced in terms of posts, wings, and guards so I think the minutes at any position will likely get shared fairly evenly.