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Message: [QUOTE="Phil, post: 4230691, member: 66"] Why not the fourth number one seed? NCAA NET has UConn as number four, and that metric doesn’t adjust for injuries, so the adjustment should be upward. UConn rotation players missed 32 games this season (plus 29 for Griffin’s but she’s not coming back so I won’t count them). Another committee doesn’t look at Massey but they know it exists. Massey has UConn as the number four overall team and that metric doesn’t make any adjustment for injuries. Adjuster injuries and the question is are they the number two overall or number three overall team?. Another way to look at it is to see how UConn is done since they got everybody back. Here are the results for the past few games. [TABLE] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]Massey[/TD] [TD]Actual[/TD] [TD]Excess[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]MOV[/TD] [TD]MOV[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Marquette[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]14[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]14[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]0[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Xavier[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]31[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]54[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]+23[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Georgetown[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]38[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]51[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]+13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Marquette[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]20[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]31[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]+11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]St. John's[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]23[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]55[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]+32[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Providence[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]29[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]57[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]+28[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Georgetown[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]35[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]46[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]+11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Marquette[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]17[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]20[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]+3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Villanova[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]16.5[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]??[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][RIGHT]121[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] If the Massey rating were correct the actual margin of victory versus the predicted margin of victory should be a random walk around zero. Instead in every single game it’s equal or above (and note we didn’t have everybody back in those early games). Instead, we scored 121 points, over and above what one would expect for the fourth-ranked team in the nation. That means we are better than fourth. We really should be the second or third overall seed. I don’t honestly think this is going to happen, but that’s the starting point for the discussion. [/QUOTE]

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