Have to disagree with you on your reason #1 pj. Reason being is because that is exactly what will never get us a full member invite! If the B1G received our all sports besides football and was allowed to air it exculsively on their network I think enough viewers in CT would demand that the BTN be put on the basic cable package. Once that happens what incentive would there be for the B1G to invite us full time when they got what they wanted with the increased revenue from the CT viewers?
Unless of course there was some sort of provision in the contract that states we would be offered full time membership in the future I don't see this being a good thing for us. Competition wise sure it
Obviously there is a risk for UConn that you're giving away what the B1G prizes most and will then have a tough sell for the football membership. However, here are two things to consider:
Worst case -- we never get the B1G football invite. Let's say the deal would be UConn would get membership in all sports but football, receives $10 mn / yr for its grant of rights in those sports, and also gets a scheduling alliance with 4 football games a year, 2 home and 2 away, with a la carte payment terms for those.
Obviously that's far better than the NBE and within hailing distance of ACC value if you can build up the football program. Say you get $3 mn for the two home B1G football games and $3 mn for the other home football games, now you're at $16 mn per year. ACC is at $17 mn. Also, as an independent, if we ever make a BCS bowl or national playoffs, we don't have to share income with conference mates.
Upside -- case for a B1G invite. UConn fans in NE/NYC will sign up for the BTN to see UConn basketball. The BTN gets detailed market feedback and can estimate the value of increased football penetration in the northeast. Bringing Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State to a stadium within a few hours of NYC & Boston would build loyalties. With the big population sizes out here, it wouldn't take much penetration to make a UConn football invite beneficial to the B1G. TV markets/subscriber base are our strength. If we show we can bring NYC/Boston/western Mass fans in addition to all of CT, then our case for football inclusion is strong.
Once you're a full member in other sports, it's hard for them not to normalize football. You're an ally. I think they would make conditions, eg expand stadium, build an on-campus stadium maybe with a highway to campus, but eventually we would meet requirements and be admitted.