More Evidence of UConn Dominance: The Polls

[RegisteredUconn]

ESPN gives a weekly history of WCBB rankings (AP and ESPN/USA polls) going back to the 2002/3 season. That history shows that a total of 8934 ballots have been cast in the AP polls and 7108 ballots in the ESPN/USA polls (16,042 total ballots).

Each weekly poll shows which teams collected the 1st place votes. How many 2nd through 25th place votes teams got were not shown and, to be candid, if we're discussing dominance, do we really care?

Over the course of the 11 years of polling, 22 different teams received at least one first place vote in at least one of the weekly polls. Of the 8934 1st place votes cast in the AP, UConn received 3445 (39%). In the ESPN/USA balloting, UConn received 2871 of 7108 (40%) 1st place votes cast.

The top 5 vote getters were:

Team Votes/% AP and Votes/% ESPN/USA
UConn 3445/39% and 2871/40%
Baylor 1431/16% and 1131/16%
Duke 1383/15% and 964/14%
Tenn 898/10% and 755/11%
LSU 629/7% and 535/8%

Looking deeper, there were seven teams that were a unanimous #1 choice at least one week during the 11 years for which history is available. Those seven teams and the number of times they were the unanimous choice in either the AP, ESPN/USA, or both polls are:

Team (weeks AP/weeks ESPN/weeks both*)
UConn (55/63/54)
Baylor (23/14/12)
LSU (2/7/0)
Duke (2/4/2)
UNC (4/0/0)
Tenn (1/2/0)
UMD (1/1/0)

* The times a team was the unanimous #1 choice in both polls is also reflected in the time that team was the AP and ESPN unanimous choice. Thus UConn's 55 weeks as the AP's unanimous choice reflects the 54 times they were the unanimous choice in both polls and one time they were the unanimous choice in AP but not in ESPN.

 

[vtcwbuff]

Pretty impressive. Maybe the pollsters aren't as clueless as we think they are.

 

[Phil]

Fascinating. I would have guessed, before seeing it, that TN would be a solid #2, and that may still be true if 96-98 were available, but it is quite interesting to see, not just that UConn is #1, but by a wide margin.

 

[winlots]

REGIS: Very, very interesting.....speaks volumes!

 

[winlots]

PHIL - you are a great stats man, for sure. Always enjoy your contributions. In this instance, you know if data went back far enough and was specific enough in its focus, Immaculata might have been at the top of the heap! Fahgedabout Rocky Top and 1996-98! What have they done for you lately??

Fascinating. I would have guessed, before seeing it, that TN would be a solid #2, and that may still be true if 96-98 were available, but it is quite interesting to see, not just that UConn is #1, but by a wide margin.[/quote

 

[triaddukefan]

I knew Duke was in the top 3... but I expected the #2 team to be Tenn.

 

[alexrgct]

There is of course a single final poll every year post-tourney. For what it's worth, UConn hasn't finished outside of the top 10 in 20 years. That is damned impressive in and of itself.

 

[Kibitzer]

Posts and threads and data like this make life difficult for me. The other evening we hosted TonyC and his lovely wife for dinner. He was his usual over-the-top optimistic and exuberant self. Now, armed with these stats, he will be unbearable (pun intended).

 

[Glenn]

One aspect of our dominance that I find particularly noteworthy is our consistency. We always--well almost always--beat the teams that we are supposed to beat.

For example, when I look back at UConn's record versus teams that are not in the final AP Poll or do not make the NCAA tournament, I find that UConn's record since 1993-4 season is 365-1. The only blemish, a game in Syracuse in January 1996--17 years without a bad loss.
Over that same period our record against teams that were in the tournament, but outside of the final AP25 was 135-5. So those are teams that are generally ranked around 26-50 (since some of the tournament teams get in not because they are in the top 64 but through automatic bids). Our last loss in this category was in 2005 at Arizona State

To round out the data, against AP11-25 we are 101-10, with the most recent loss against St. John's at home in 2012. (Note, this is an example of my methodology which looks at final AP rankings and not the ranking at the time of the game.) Against AP1-10 we are 77-39.

 

[Suebird10fan]

There is of course a single final poll every year post-tourney. For what it's worth, UConn hasn't finished outside of the top 10 in 20 years. That is damned impressive in and of itself.

How many top 5s? Got to be 18 or 19.

 

[Suebird10fan]

One aspect of our dominance that I find particularly noteworthy is our consistency. We always--well almost always--beat the teams that we are supposed to beat.

For example, when I look back at UConn's record versus teams that are not in the final AP Poll or do not make the NCAA tournament, I find that UConn's record since 1993-4 season is 365-1. The only blemish, a game in Syracuse in January 1996--17 years without a bad loss.
Over that same period our record against teams that were in the tournament, but outside of the final AP25 was 135-5. So those are teams that are generally ranked around 26-50 (since some of the tournament teams get in not because they are in the top 64 but through automatic bids). Our last loss in this category was in 2005 at Arizona State

To round out the data, against AP11-25 we are 101-10, with the most recent loss against St. John's at home in 2012. (Note, this is an example of my methodology which looks at final AP rankings and not the ranking at the time of the game.) Against AP1-10 we are 77-39.

Fantastic stuff Glenn. Thanks!

 

[Adios]

Dominance is after we win championship #9. And #10, #11 and #12. And maybe #13 and #14.

 

[Outside Shot]

Thank you, Maya Moore. If she had chosen Tennessee, history would likely be different.