Might Be Another Long Year for Sox fans

[Danzz]

Agreed. The kids in Chicago are not showing much yet. Kopech is apparently having Tommy John surgery and Moncado hit .235 this past year with 217 K's. The one trade where he blew it was the acquisition of Tyler Thornburg. It cost us Travis Shaw. But hey, it looked good at the time.
Big question now is who do we make sure does not get away. Pending free agents: Joe Kelly, Nathan Eovaldi, Steve Pearce, Ian Kinsler, Drew Pomeranz, Craig Kimbrel and David Price.

I doubt that Price would exercise his option and Joe Kelly has made it clear he wants to stay. Kinsler is excess baggage if Pedroia comes back. I don't think they will try to keep Pomeranz but I will be disappointed if they don't try hard to keep Eovaldi. Kimbrel is a big question. If they let him go, can Kelly become the closer? I would like to see Steve Pearce stay and I think he would too but he will be 36 next year and one or two years is the only thing that makes sense. My biggest fear is that the Yankees will give Eovaldi an offer he can't refuse.

Eovaldi would be the key signing.
The big question for me is Kimbrel who had a very good year until the end. He seems to be fine if he pitches the 9th inning 2 days in a row and then a game off. He has been ineffective when he gets too much rest or gets used more than that. He had some dismal performances when he was apparently tipping his pitches.
They should be able to sign Pearce and Kelly but signing Eovaldi will take major money.

 

[Husky25]

Agreed. The kids in Chicago are not showing much yet. Kopech is apparently having Tommy John surgery and Moncado hit .235 this past year with 217 K's. The one trade where he blew it was the acquisition of Tyler Thornburg. It cost us Travis Shaw. But hey, it looked good at the time.
Big question now is who do we make sure does not get away. Pending free agents: Joe Kelly, Nathan Eovaldi, Steve Pearce, Ian Kinsler, Drew Pomeranz, Craig Kimbrel and David Price.

I doubt that Price would exercise his option and Joe Kelly has made it clear he wants to stay. Kinsler is excess baggage if Pedroia comes back. I don't think they will try to keep Pomeranz but I will be disappointed if they don't try hard to keep Eovaldi. Kimbrel is a big question. If they let him go, can Kelly become the closer? I would like to see Steve Pearce stay and I think he would too but he will be 36 next year and one or two years is the only thing that makes sense. My biggest fear is that the Yankees will give Eovaldi an offer he can't refuse.

I don't think those are very tough questions. You only try to keep Eovaldi and Kelly.

The Red Sox were Pearce's favorite childhood team and he just won the World Series with them. So he may be looking to spin his WS MVP into bigger money elsewhere and price himself out (Already was making >$6M). As you say, he will be 36 and he's not Mike Lowell. I believe Moreland is on the books next year, and Martinez could potentially be converted into a serviceable backup in the field.

If Price opts out, you let him walk. He's on the wrong side of 30, with an elbow hanging by a thread of a UCL. $30.whatever Mil will buy at least two starting pitchers with upside.

I think you let Kimbrel walk as well. Unfortunately for him, his playoff performance won't net him the bigger dollars I think he was hoping for, and he was already making $13M. 30 years olds typically get one more LT contract and at his age, velocity normally starts to decrease (See: Alan Embree). I don't think it would behoove the Sox to pay big for past performance, especially if he can't figure out his wildness/pitch tipping.

The bigger questions is who can be leveraged in a trade. Bradley? Swihart (can he become a permanent non-catcher?)? The Sox have some big arbitration contracts coming due. Obviously they have shown the ability to pay for players to get the job done, but in order to not destroy the salary bell curve, they need to decide on who. For example Betts will command Harper/Trout like money on the open market. He's already making $10.5 Mil and is in his second arbitration year. Will he come to the table? How about Benintendi, Barnes, and Devers? They are making short money in their 2 way pre-arbitration deals. Can their arbitration years be bought out with a sensible LT contract?

 

[Dooley]

Eovaldi will command market value. I'd be shocked if he takes a cheap 1 or 2 year deal. While he pitched fairly well as a SP, I think that guy could be a lights out closer. If the Sox let Kimbrel walk, they could re-sign Eovaldi at a fair market rate 3 or 4 year deal.

There is no way Price opts out of his deal. None. Especially not after last offseason and watching teams pay couch cushion change (as far as MLB contracts go) 1 year deals to most free agents over 30 yo. 33 yo Price would be opting out of 4 years - $127M. There is a better chance of UConn getting into the College Football Playoff and then the SEC than there is David Price getting that kind of contract on the open market.

 

[Waquoit]

My biggest fear is that the Yankees will give Eovaldi an offer he can't refuse.

That's their pattern lately, sign a guy off the Sox after they win it all. Still owe Ellsbury big cash.

Kinsler was basically terrible, he's gone. Joe Kelly can take Kimbrell's place. Pearce will be back with a decent offer.

 

[Husky25]

33 yo Price would be opting out of 4 years - $127M. There is a better chance of UConn getting into the College Football Playoff and then the SEC than there is David Price getting that kind of contract on the open market.

I think it depends how important that last $32M is. There is speculation that he may accept $0.80 on the dollar to get out of the Boston fishbowl.

 

[Waquoit]

I think it depends how important that last $32M is. There is speculation that he may accept $0.80 on the dollar to get out of the Boston fishbowl.

Even now? He holds all the cards!

 

[Husky25]

Pearce will be back with a decent offer.

I don't see it. Moreland is younger, better on the whole, and making the same money. I think the Sox will float a token offer, but I doubt he bites.

 

[Dooley]

I think it depends how important that last $32M is. There is speculation that he may accept $0.80 on the dollar to get out of the Boston fishbowl.

We're talking about the MLBPA here. There is zero chance Price takes a 80 cents on the dollar deal, even if it means leaving Boston. If he desperately wants out of Boston so badly, he'll go through the normal trade demand channel and the Sox will have to eat money to move him. Probably alot of money.

And the last $32M doesn't matter. He's not getting anywhere close to $31-$32M in years 1-3 either. He'd be opting out of $31.5M/AAV to sign a 3 year deal that would - MAYBE - pay him $20M/AAV. More realistically, he'd probably only get $15M/AAV based on age and injury risk.

 

[intlzncster]

A
k. I don't think they will try to keep Pomeranz but I will be disappointed if they don't try hard to keep Eovaldi. Kimbrel is a big question. If they let him go, can Kelly become the closer? I would like to see Steve Pearce stay and I think he would too but he will be 36 next year and one or two years is the only thing that makes sense. My biggest fear is that the Yankees will give Eovaldi an offer he can't refuse.

There's a million guys out there linked to the Yanks. They can't pay all of them.

 

[intlzncster]

I don't see it. Moreland is younger, better on the whole, and making the same money. I think the Sox will float a token offer, but I doubt he bites.

He's the ultimate utility player. One of, if not the, best in the bigs. I think the Sox value that, and what he brings in the clubhouse in terms of vet leadership. He's shown what he can do when he's thriving. Pierce is one of those unique guys who's traded so often precisely because he's is so valued. Teams aren't throwing him away, they're requesting him.

His whole family are diehard redsox fans, as his dad is originally from Boston. Getting traded to the Sox was a dream come true, and that's before all the success.

If he can get any kind of decent money, he'll return. I think he also values stability at this point, given his past. But other teams are going to be offering good deals, who knows?

 

[Husky25]

We're talking about the MLBPA here. There is zero chance Price takes a 80 cents on the dollar deal, even if it means leaving Boston. If he desperately wants out of Boston so badly, he'll go through the normal trade demand channel and the Sox will have to eat money to move him. Probably alot of money.

And the last $32M doesn't matter. He's not getting anywhere close to $31-$32M in years 1-3 either. He'd be opting out of $31.5M/AAV to sign a 3 year deal that would - MAYBE - pay him $20M/AAV. More realistically, he'd probably only get $15M/AAV based on age and injury risk.

This is not an 2003 A-Rod situation. That was a trade/restructure scenario. The player option is already in the deal and agreed to (The MLBPA is one of the parties it needs to clear). The option clause effectively ends of the contract. The MLBPA would be trying to enforce a deal that doesn't exist.

I do agree that Price would be nuts to opt out, in lieu of forcing a trade. I'm just sayin'...there's talk...

 

[Waquoit]

I don't see it. Moreland is younger, better on the whole, and making the same money. I think the Sox will float a token offer, but I doubt he bites.

I caught the MLB crew talking to Pearce after the game. The anchor asked him if he was hoping to comeback to the Sox. You had to see his face before he said "Yeah". As in "Yeah of course I want to comeback, you nitwit." Moreland wasn't better in the 2nd half, even pre-injury.

 

[Waquoit]

We're talking about the MLBPA here. There is zero chance Price takes a 80 cents on the dollar deal, even if it means leaving Boston. If he desperately wants out of Boston so badly, he'll go through the normal trade demand channel and the Sox will have to eat money to move him. Probably alot of money.

The only reason for Price to leave is for more money. Where is going to go for more money where the expectations will be lower than Boston? New York? He's the toast of the town making top dollar. And Boston is his best chance to get another ring. And I also can't see him shooting his way out of town. It would negate all of the good feelings he's earned.

 

[Husky25]

He's the ultimate utility player. One of, if not the, best in the bigs. I think the Sox value that, and what he brings in the clubhouse in terms of vet leadership. He's shown what he can do when he's thriving. Pierce is one of those unique guys who's traded so often precisely because he's is so valued. Teams aren't throwing him away, they're requesting him.

His whole family are diehard redsox fans, as his dad is originally from Boston. Getting traded to the Sox was a dream come true, and that's before all the success.

If he can get any kind of decent money, he'll return. I think he also values stability at this point, given his past. But other teams are going to be offering good deals, who knows?

You've misspelled Brock Holt's name .

All things above are true, of course, but Pierce turns 36 in April. I suppose the question is what is considered decent money? I don't think he gets offered the $6.25M he was making this year from Boston.

 

[Husky25]

I caught the MLB crew talking to Pearce after the game. The anchor asked him if he was hoping to comeback to the Sox. You had to see his face before he said "Yeah". As in "Yeah of course I want to comeback, you nitwit." Moreland wasn't better in the 2nd half, even pre-injury.

I didn't catch that, but anyone would be crazy not to get caught up in the moment 37 seconds after Machado took a knee.

He's a great story. All I'm saying is that if he can leverage his MVP elsewhere into bigger money and I'm Dombrowski. I let him.

 

[Dooley]

This is not an 2003 A-Rod situation. That was a trade/restructure scenario. The player option is already in the deal and agreed to. The option clause effectively ends of the contract. The MLBPA would be trying to enforce a deal that doesn't exist.

I do agree that Price would be nuts to opt out, in lieu of forcing a trade. I'm just sayin'...there's talk...

Sorry, I didn't mean MLBPA challenges to an opt-out. That is definitely part of the deal and every player has his own choice to make. I meant more along the lines of the obvious pay cut that Price would take if he did opt out. He would essentially be opting out to take a pay cut. That's a big MLBPA no-no. More than likely, opting out would mean Price eats about $10M/yr. And while players certainly do take "hometown discounts" from time to time, that happens when there isn't already significant money locked in. Price would be throwing away $127M to accept (probably) in the neighborhood of $90M over the same time period. That lowers the market for other pitchers and the Union would flip out, especially after last year's nuclear cool free agency period.

The only way Price can opt out and have that fall into the good graces of his player union is if he gets years added to his existing deal. That seems highly unlikely given his age and UCL concerns. Honestly, I don't think he'd get anything more than 3 years if he was on the market today. Really the only way there is a road for Price (and his money) to leave Boston is via trade and the Sox would have to eat a significant amount of the remaining money. But maybe it can happen. Maybe the Sox eat more money to get a better player return or they find a naive trade partner like the Dodgers (Adrian Gonzalez/Carl Crawford) that want to add payroll to try to sell tickets. Who knows? I just have a very hard time believing Price won't be in Boston in 2019 and well beyond. Every team subscribes to analytics and are looking to cut costs and add value...not the opposite.

 

[Dooley]

The only reason for Price to leave is for more money. Where is going to go for more money where the expectations will be lower than Boston? New York? He's the toast of the town making top dollar. And Boston is his best chance to get another ring. And I also can't see him shooting his way out of town. It would negate all of the good feelings he's earned.

Completely agree. Nobody is going to hand David Price $127M.

 

[Husky25]

Sorry, I didn't mean MLBPA challenges to an opt-out. That is definitely part of the deal and every player has his own choice to make. I meant more along the lines of the obvious pay cut that Price would take if he did opt out. He would essentially be opting out to take a pay cut. That's a big MLBPA no-no. More than likely, opting out would mean Price eats about $10M/yr. And while players certainly do take "hometown discounts" from time to time, that happens when there isn't already significant money locked in. Price would be throwing away $127M to accept (probably) in the neighborhood of $90M over the same time period. That lowers the market for other pitchers and the Union would flip out, especially after last year's nuclear cool free agency period.

The only way Price can opt out and have that fall into the good graces of his player union is if he gets years added to his existing deal. That seems highly unlikely given his age and UCL concerns. Honestly, I don't think he'd get anything more than 3 years if he was on the market today. Really the only way there is a road for Price (and his money) to leave Boston is via trade and the Sox would have to eat a significant amount of the remaining money. But maybe it can happen. Maybe the Sox eat more money to get a better player return or they find a naive trade partner like the Dodgers (Adrian Gonzalez/Carl Crawford) that want to add payroll to try to sell tickets. Who knows? I just have a very hard time believing Price won't be in Boston in 2019 and well beyond. Every team subscribes to analytics and are looking to cut costs and add value...not the opposite.

I agree with everything you wrote...Except that the MLBPA has any direct influence on the player option. They won't like it and I'm sure there are ways they can pressure the player (every union has pressure points for their members), but they can't directly stop it either.

I don't think it happens, and my comment above (#202) clearly states that the Sox should let him walk IF he opts out.

 

[Dooley]

I agree with everything you wrote...Except that the MLBPA has any direct influence on the player option. They won't like it and I'm sure there are ways they can pressure the player (every union has pressure points for their members), but they can't directly stop it either.

I don't think it happens, and my comment above (#202) clearly states that the Sox should let him walk IF he opts out.

Agree. I think the Sox would do 1,000 back flips if Price decides to opt out. They could use his $31M to re-sign Kimbrel and Eovaldi and might have enough left over to tap into some IFA to reload the farm a bit.

 

[Waquoit]

I would think the discussions for Eovaldi begin at Porcello+ dollars. I say do it. He has a new arm and is thriving with the club. Make the first offer a non-insulting one.

 

[intlzncster]

We're talking about the MLBPA here. There is zero chance Price takes a 80 cents on the dollar deal, even if it means leaving Boston. If he desperately wants out of Boston so badly, he'll go through the normal trade demand channel and the Sox will have to eat money to move him. Probably alot of money.

The only reason for Price to leave is for more money. Where is going to go for more money where the expectations will be lower than Boston? New York? He's the toast of the town making top dollar. And Boston is his best chance to get another ring. And I also can't see him shooting his way out of town. It would negate all of the good feelings he's earned.

I don't think it happens, and my comment above (#202) clearly states that the Sox should let him walk IF he opts out.

This is all moot, as he's claimed on record he's not opting out. He loves it here. Said something along the lines of, "why would I want to play anywhere else?" The only thing he doesn't like is the media, but so what.

I think it depends how important that last $32M is. There is speculation that he may accept $0.80 on the dollar to get out of the Boston fishbowl.

This is largely media driven BS. Boston media likes to give themselves way more clout than they actually have.

Contrary to popular belief, the guy loves the expectations; he's a competitor. You don't get that good for that long without being so. He loves his teammates. He loves Alex. He even appreciates the Boston fans, despite them riding him.

And of course he's getting paid buku bucks at an advanced age.

 

[intlzncster]

You've misspelled Brock Holt's name .

All things above are true, of course, but Pierce turns 36 in April. I suppose the question is what is considered decent money? I don't think he gets offered the $6.25M he was making this year from Boston.

Yeah, I don't know how the dollars will work out. This is gonna be a real interesting offseason for the Sox, the Yanks, and all of baseball, given the talent on the board.

I really can't predict what's going to happen. It's wide open for the Sox alone.

 

[intlzncster]

Agreed. The kids in Chicago are not showing much yet. Kopech is apparently having Tommy John surgery and Moncado hit .235 this past year with 217 K's. .

You can't really make the call on these guys yet. They were prospects when they were moved, so it's more what they'll do 5 yrs from the trade or so. Kopech is 22 and Moncada 23. Neither hits their prime for another 5 years. Still very early days.

For the Red Sox, the trade was obviously about 'now', while for the White Sox, it was for the future.

I think this was a good trade for both teams.

 

[intlzncster]

Sox Still owe Sandoval $18m next year, so that ties up some cash. Still smh at the worst signing in baseball history.

 

[Waquoit]

Sox Still owe Sandoval $18m next year, so that ties up some cash.

But not Hanley!