Mid Range game - lost art

[ktuck911]

We've got some decent shooters on our squad....but they seem to fall in love with shooting behind the arc.
Here's a thought. Since we kinda play inside our, because good things happen when Sanogo gets touches on offense, maybe we fall less in love with simply standing behind the arc and incorporate shots a little closer to the basket as well??? There are a few guys I remember us having that had decent success with a mixture of both (Ray Allen, Rip Hamilton)

 

[polycom]

So you have just missed the math movement over the last 10 years in basketball....dunks or layups.

 

[ktuck911]

So you have just missed the math movement over the last 10 years in basketball....dunks or layups.

No, what i mentioned involves using more basketball IQ

 

[polycom]

No, what i mentioned involves using more basketball IQ

No you are wrong. The game plans are built to take no mid range or very few mid range shots, it's statistically a bad shot... it isn't about bbiq. In college you do what the coach says.

 

[huskiesNhoos]

We've got some decent shooters on our squad....but they seem to fall in love with shooting behind the arc.
Here's a thought. Since we kinda play inside our, because good things happen when Sanogo gets touches on offense, maybe we fall less in love with simply standing behind the arc and incorporate shots a little closer to the basket as well??? There are a few guys I remember us having that had decent success with a mixture of both (Ray Allen, Rip Hamilton)

It's a tough sell when your exhibit A+B are HoFers - no one on this team is even close to being in the same stratosphere as those 2. I get your point, but mid range shots in modern bball should pretty much always be 3rd option behind dunk/layups and 3pters

 

[Spaceman213J]

It's one of the things that made RIP special. When you shoot it at a high percentage it indeed can be a big weapon. It can really open up the high low game and jumping at a pump fake there can be disaster for the defense. Centers and forwards have less time to react with the shorter distance and it can end a zone in a hurry, too.

Isn't it suppose to be a big part of Karban's game. Anxious to see how Hurley works it in next year.

 

[husky429]

It isn't 2004. If the defense gives you a mid-range shot you take it, but it shouldn't be a part of our scheming on offense at all.

Isn't it suppose to be a big part of Karban's game. Anxious to see how Hurley works it in next year.

Not really. He shoots 3s and bangs under the basket primarily. His release is too low to be very consistently effective from the 3 point line.

 

[willie99]

I absolutely concur. We were wing U, we used to run pro curls to perfection. Now we shoot exclusively from outside the arc or inside the lane. Everything else is no man's land

 

[UncleSpliff]

The sabermetric guys in the NBA have determined that the midrange jump shot is the worst shot to take in the game. That’s why it has all but disappeared in the league. I have to imagine if Jordan or Kobe played in todays day their games would be a lot different. The fade away from the elbow would be a 3 point shot now. Curry changed the game and it has trickled down to the highschool level and even lower.

 

[cohenzone]

It's a tough sell when your exhibit A+B are HoFers - no one on this team is even close to being in the same stratosphere as those 2. I get your point, but mid range shots in modern bball should pretty much always be 3rd option behind dunk/layups and 3pters

True, but a player like Jackson would be much more of a threat with a mid range option. Just because dunks and 3 pointers dominate, it doesn’t mean that in the right hands a mid range is silly. Jackson’s other skills (driving and passing) would get a boost with the attention he might draw at 12-15 feet. He’s not a good 3 shooter despite a bit of a misleading stat and he drives into impossible layups a lot. His gifts are unusual but with big limitations that maybe an ounce of mid range might help.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Two thoughts:

1- Hurley said earlier this year he wanted guys to take 3's instead of long 2's. This is consistent with the direction of basketball from the high school level on up. (I personally hate it).

2- I think there's a way to be contrarian and take advantage of defenses if you can have a strong mid-range game because other teams are not going to be able to defend it because no one really plays this way. Belichick was always scheming (offensively and defensively) in terms of what's next, not what's now; this creates match-up issues and success.

Give me basketball players with skills that are difficult to match up with - I'll take that 8 days a week. Example: 'Nova.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

No you are wrong. The game plans are built to take no mid range or very few mid range shots, it's statistically a bad shot... it isn't about BBQ. In college you do what the coach says.

The math is wrong because none of the sabermetrics take into account that basketball shots are not independent events. They are directly related to what comes immediately before and have a direct effect on what comes immediately after.

If all a team does is take 3's and try dunks, it will change how the defense plays them, which will lead to lower percentages on attempted 3's and dunks.

 

[polycom]

The math is wrong because none of the sabermetrics take into account that basketball shots are not independent events. They are directly related to what comes immediately before and have a direct effect on what comes immediately after.

If all a team does is take 3's and try dunks, it will change how the defense plays them, which will lead to lower percentages on attempted 3's and dunks.

If this were true nba teams would exploit this… but outside of embiid the mid range shot isn’t even taken even when given. You can’t say the math is wrong as it’s more you don’t believe the inputs to be correct

 

[husky429]

If this were true nba teams would exploit this… but outside of embiid the mid range shot isn’t even taken even when given. You can’t say the math is wrong as it’s more you don’t believe the inputs to be correct

Durant. Durants #s from mid-range breaks all the stat nerds systems.

 

[Huskyforlife]

If Ray Allen and Rip Hamilton could do it, why not Andre Jackson?

 

[superjohn]

Demar DeRozan lives off of the midrange game and he's devastating with it. It's a shame it's been phased out of the game and young talented players aren't being taught they could be unstoppable with it.

 

[Husky68]

Well, UConn players have shown they are crappy shooters from 3 and up close so maybe they are the exception and should try mid range shots.

How about the boys spend a practice watching Azzi Fudd shoot. Or better yet, hire whoever taught her.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

If Ray Allen and Rip Hamilton could do it, why not Andre Jackson?

It's all about practice.

 

[polycom]

Durant. Durants #s from mid-range breaks all the stat nerds systems.

Yes he is the other person, but him and embiid have the same situation where they are giants who can shoot so the mid range shot can't be appropriately statistically quantified.

 

[Lefty2one]

Not that I'm advocating for us to pretend it's 1996 but the big problem with NBA analytics applied to college hoops is that college players aren't professional athletes and certainly aren't professional shooters. Also, there are elite penetrators and PnR playmakers throughout the NBA that make it easier to get open looks. Very few college teams have that luxury. Not to mention the college game is still more physical and played at a slower pace. Look no further than Cade Cunningham's college season: he looked very underwhelming for a hyped up #1 pick. Still, now that he's in the NBA he's just fine.

If Hurley tried to exclusively run an NBA offense with this roster (and we do have plays commonly run in the NBA) it won't lead to much. We don't have a PnR point guard, let alone an elite one. We don't have a roster littered with shooters to help stretch the floor. The reality is our offense is at its best when we're playing 80/90s basketball: inside-out through Sanogo.

 

[borninansonia]

The math is wrong because none of the sabermetrics take into account that basketball shots are not independent events. They are directly related to what comes immediately before and have a direct effect on what comes immediately after.

If all a team does is take 3's and try dunks, it will change how the defense plays them, which will lead to lower percentages on attempted 3's and dunks.

And therefore more open mid-range shots.

 

[August_West]

Well, UConn players have shown they are crappy shooters from 3 and up close so maybe they are the exception and should try mid range shots.

How about the boys spend a practice watching Azzi Fudd shoot. Or better yet, hire whoever taught her.

Or maybe the guys percentages would be better using the toy ball women play with.

Stands to reason that a smaller ball has a better chance of going through an equal size hoop, no?

I mean that's just math.

 

[XLCenterFan]

It's the worst shot to take. Although who remembers Jeff Adrian's knock down jumper from the elbow? It was money.

 

[XLCenterFan]

If Ray Allen and Rip Hamilton could do it, why not Andre Jackson?

Those guys were shooters. Ajax is not. Have you seen his form and release?

 

[Chin Diesel]

The midrange J is a low percentage shot in terms of value. That being said, Cole usually has a real good pull up from the FT line. I'm way more comfortable with Cole pulling up from 12'-15' than I am with him trying to drive the lane for layups.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If this were true nba teams would exploit this… but outside of embiid the mid range shot isn’t even taken even when given. You can’t say the math is wrong as it’s more you don’t believe the inputs to be correct

If an open mid range shot is a worse shot than a contested 3, then why have a team play defense at all? By this logic, playing defense actually makes it a better shot.

In reality, we are still in the early days of analytics. They will start running regressions against different defenses and based on what happened immediately before and after. There is a lot to learn about what increases points per possession and what decreases points per possession. I am confident that post touches will make a comeback, while 5 out offenses will decline in prevalence.

 

[ConnEd]

3’s are a better shot than mid-range 2’s across an entire team assuming the team can make 33% of their 3’s (equivalent to 50% shooting from 2). Over large samples that will be true. But, as we’ve seen, in a given game, a team may shoot 25% from 3. Now, their 2 pt equivalent is only 37.5% shooting. In that case, it might benefit the team to take most of its shots from 2 including mid-range shots assuming it can shoot more than 37.5% on those shots.

Of course, you don’t know how you’re going to shoot for an entire game in the middle of the game. But it’s also true that shooting requires rhythm/feel. And if one or more of your 3-pt shooters doesn’t have it, one way to get it is to take (and make) easier jumpshots. Hawkins, for example, needs the confidence he gets from seeing his shot drop. I’d run plays to get him an elbow jumper or two every time he enters a game. Similarly, getting to the FT line can get you in that rhythm.

Lastly, some players may just be highly proficient mid-range shooters that defy the stats, e.g. Rip, Cole. I wouldn’t push guys like that to shoot mostly 3’s when you can count on them being extraordinarily efficient in the mid-range. And, as others have stated, there’s something to be said for making the opposition have to defend the entire court and not just the lane and the arc.

 

[olehead]

It isn't 2004. If the defense gives you a mid-range shot you take it, but it shouldn't be a part of our scheming on offense at all.



Not really. He shoots 3s and bangs under the basket primarily. His release is too low to be very consistently effective from the 3 point line.

Wait what? He's our incoming sniper I thought.

 

[Yawin4Heisman]

Mid-range j’s are just not a good shot from an EV standpoint… Period… love all the armchair experts this topic brings out who apparently know more about it than the people whose full time job it is to study this sort of stuff… (and as if the experts haven’t considered the counterarguments before… c’mon)

1) we don’t shoot mid-range j’s at a high enough % to warrant taking them… not sure why there’s a need to speculate or debate this - we have shot charts of makes/misses for every game this year. Just take a look. 2-6 from mid-range vs Nova (some of which I think came after passing up possible 3’s) vs 8-20 on 3’s

Creighton game even worse - took double digit mid-range attempts and looks like we made 2…
I’m sure there’s games which are outliers but that isn’t the point as the %’s needed long-term to make it worthwhile just aren’t there… also, you don’t get to the foul line as often (which impacts the EV and seems to have been overlooked in this chat unless I missed it) taking mid-range j’s which is another reason why teams emphasize attacking the basket when not taking 3’s

2) what’s the recruiting pitch - “hey we’re gonna teach you a skill / run an offense that no NBA GM values”… let’s leave that to Cuse with their 2-3 zone… not to mention as already mentioned it’s not a skill that’s emphasized at the high school level anymore which brings me to 3…

3) love using the examples of some of the greatest shooters / mid-range j shooters to ever play the game as evidence a mid-range j strategy can work… well aside from the fact none currently play for us, there will be less and less of those guys in the future cause of what players are taught in HS so good luck building a team around the concept nowadays

 

[Hoophound]

Polley/Hawkins/Martin should flash to the follow line for an easy jumper or quick pass down low now and then. We need some way to offset our inability to penetrate with our guards. Polley in particular, at 6’9”, may find some easy buckets there.