Good question. If the tournament were today, anything higher than 7 would be idiotic. IF they win out, they'll be probably a 4 or 5, however, I'd imagine they'll lose one game, especially if they play Belmont twice between the regular season and the OVC tournament.
Murray State is a very unique mid-major team as in they profile as the type of team that does well in tournaments:
- old (top two players are seniors),
- comfortable playing slow (219th in overall pace)
- and they have a cold-blooded legit three-level bucket-getter who can get to the line (Tevin Brown).
Most good mid-majors tend to lean heavily towards one style which creates a detriment on something else. For example, the Wofford team you mentioned was an insanely strong three-point shooting team, but their interior defense was bad (197th in nation).
However, if you look at Murray State's metrics, they are an incredibly balanced team with their only weakness being ft%:
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When you compare their metrics to a similarly ranked high-major team, like Michigan State, you see way more imbalance: in their case, awful turnover ratio and bad interior offense:
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On that note, Murray State on paper looks like a team that can go very far. I do agree that, as you mentioned
@BLUEDOGHOUSE, I'd like to see Jordan Skipper-Brown play a few games before the tournament because without him, their depth is basically just three players. Star big KJ Williams is holding it down, but South Carolina transfer Trae Hannibal has been their backup 4 w/ JSB out and at 6'2 220 that's not the size I want at the 4 (even though Hannibal is a really fun player to watch. He reminds me a bit of Dylan Addae-Wusu). He's better off as wing depth and he's a capable backup point guard.
Big game Thursday with Belmont visiting Murray State. 9 PM on ESPNU. Would love for both teams to make the tournament so Belmont winning that game increases the odds of that.
