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Third final in four years and we’re entering Monday just the way I like it: as the underdog.
I get why Michigan is the favored team – Draftkings currently lists Michigan’s odds at -7.5 – they’ve got the #1 defense in the nation and a top-five offense. They are big, talented and deep two-through-five.
Why didn’t I pick Michigan to make the Final Four in my bracket? Sophomore combo guard LJ Cason’s torn ACL has turned the Wolverines into a one-PG roster, which could devastate some styles of play, but has been more of a pivot for the team than a major obstacle even though Cason was one of their best transition players and quicker guards
With or without Cason, Michigan's offense is a modern and flexible offense at its core with a lot of NBA-style reads rather than rigid sets, with multiple ball-handlers and skill up and down the lineup, regardless of position. Tons of spread pick-and-roll that prioritizes flow, spacing and decision-making than what you typically see in the Big Ten.
In Year 2 at Michigan, May’s offense is more similar to what he ran at FAU, albeit with wayyy more size. Key features include offense initiated from players, which can either create offense on their own or make the next pass or kick out once the defense collapses. Since all of their players are expected to facilitate and pass well, offense sets can be interchangeable regardless of position, even though their bigs Mara and Johnson aren’t necessarily volume spacers, they shoot well enough to respect when they stretch out to the elbow or beyond. In addition to this, all of their guards, wings and forwards [I’d exclude the two bigs I mentioned and Will Tschetter are expected to handle quite a bit, so especially since Cason has gone down with injury, one-big offenses w/ Yaxel Lendeborg at the 4 makes the 1-through-4 offensive expectations pretty positionless.
Michigan’s defense plays a structured, switching-paced offense that utilizes the roster’s overall excellent size keep things tight in the halfcourt, staying in front in their positioning and they are stoutly in the paint, led by Mara’s elite block rate (6th best in the nation) and Johnson and Lendeborg rock-solid defending in the paint. With Cason out, there’s less pressure and transition chances with effectively the defense has lost some of its versatility with fewer possessions with full court looks or disruption early in possessions. The player it has affected the most is Cadeau, as he is the team’s only true point guard so his energy is almost more conserved in the defensive end. This means that the bigger players in their now 8-man rotation need to play more conservatively late in the game, leading to more potential for fatigue against quick backcourts and/or offenses like UConn’s that move so much without the ball. For example, Karaban’s halfcourt actions has been a game-changer this tournament depleting energy from bigger power forwards like Mirkovic (6 points), Kohler (12 points) and Dailey (12 points) who also were less dangerous in the paint since Karaban’s perimeter presence opened up space for Reed to go one-on-one and cut for open looks.
To add, Michigan is a good rebounding team (top-55 rates in OR% and DR%), but nowhere near as dangerous as UConn’s previous four opponents, who were all excellent rebounding teams. Odd to say, comparatively to UCLA, Michigan State, Duke and Illinois, UConn might find the battle under the boards against a monster-sized team like Michigan less daunting.
To me, the biggest matchup for UConn exists when Consensus All-America Team selection Yaxel Lendeborg plays the 3, which occurs early in the halves as that is his spot in the starting lineup, but it’s fair to expect about 8-10 minutes with Lendenborg at the 3 and about 20 minutes of him at the 4.
Lendeborg is Michigan’s best all-around defender, who is especially elite at smothering up space off-ball. On offense, he has basically no holes and is a lot like Cameron Boozer, albeit a better slasher and creator off the dribble from the perimeter. He can play in transition, makes good reads off drives and shoots well at all levels, while also having no issues bullying smaller opponents and is good at getting second-chance shots. Thankfully, Ross has been playing very well and Stewart looks healthy, so my hope is that either of these two guys are at the 3 for most of the time Yaxel is at the 3, but I doubt Hurley will switch up starting lineups, so I expect Mullins to guard him early in each half, we’ll see.
Michigan’s scoring prowess continues in its frontcourt. 7’3 Aday Mara has improved his conditioning to the point of getting close to 30 minutes-per-game, especially in a game like last night when Mara wasn’t challenged much by Arizona’s sub-par offensive bigs. He’ll face a way bigger challenge against Reed. Looking a bit at Michigan’s loss to Purdue, Purdue’s Oscar Cluff [6’11 255] was particularly effective applying his strength and footwork under the basket, scoring 21 and drawing 11 foul shots. Cluff was particularly open thanks to Purdue’s inside-the-arc spacing as their halfcourt offense relied less on three-point attempts (just 14) and more on outside two-point attempts (43 2PAs, 60.5 2P%, 7.4 average 2PA distance) making defensive switching assignments particularly challenging for Michigan. In summary, Mara is an elite interior defender who is a good low-post scorer, but has a decent amount of skill for a 7’3 big, especially as a passer.
Starting at the 4 and backing up Mara at the 5 is Illinois transfer Morez Johnson, who has some similarities on the offensive end to David Mitrovic and is the exact same size as him. Two-way rebounding, the top eFG% in the Big Ten, and elite FT% and 2P%, Johnson is more than just a big dude who defends really well: he’s got OK floor spacing ability and is a smart passer. He’s an elite, versatile defender who uses his 7’3 wingspan and foot speed to allow him to, like Yaxel, switch one through five. Shades of Day’ron Sharpe: a stout and skilled power forward who is bigger than most 5s. There’s about a 50/50 split between his minutes at the 4 and the 5, but when he plays the 5, almost all of his minutes are with Yaxel at the 4.
Staying in the frontcourt, senior Will Tschetter backs up at the 3 and the 4, good for about 15 minutes per game as a low usage floor spacer. Offensively, he is essentially Ben Humrichous, but a worse defender.
With Cason out, Elliot Cadeau has done a nice job stepping up and is a much better player compared to his time at North Carolina. With a quick first step, Cadeau is a rock solid PNR point guard with great vision at full speed. He’s small and skinny, so he has trouble converting against more physical defenders inside the arc, but he’s greatly improved his three-point shot from a major liability at UNC to a major asset at Michigan. With the fifth highest assist rate in the Big Ten, he’s a drink stirrer, so I love having Demary matching him up. Shout out to Cadeau taking on more of an important backcourt defensive role with Cason out, and his efficiency rates are solid despite him not being a turnover generator.
The remainder of Michigan guards are medium usage, smart bigger guards that flow nicely within the offensive system and are decent defenders, so expect good versatility and unselfish two-way play.
With Cason out, Roddy Gayle, Nimari Burnett and Trey McKenney are basically the glue that holds the offense together thanks to their combination of secondary ball-handling, ability to create shots late in the clock and switchability all throughout the backcourt.
Gayle has stepped up as arguably Michigan’s de facto point guard when Cadeau is on the bench and he typically defends the best backcourt option on defense. There’s a ton of variability in his game as he’s prone to coughing up turnovers and getting cold with his shot. He’ll play 1, 2 and 3 off the bench.
Starting 2-guard Nimari Burnett is more of a low-mistake, catch-and-shoot guy who is best on offense when he’s not forced to put the floor on the deck and create off the dribble. In terms of offensive role, he’s the least versatile of the three.
Freshman Trey McKenney is another guy who has stepped up with Cason out, getting starter’s minutes as a backup 2, 3 and occasional 1. At 6’4 225, he’s built like an outside linebacker that can overpower off-the-dribble, combining strength with form to end up as one of the most efficient shooters in the Big Ten. With this current roster, when the ball is in his hands, he’s looking to score, reaching double-digits in four of the last five.
A team that likes pace, UConn can capitalize with their matchups if they can control the glass and force Michigan to play at a slower pace. UConn can win this game if they hold Michigan to the low 70s or less, which Ohio State and Wisconsin tried to do in the Big Ten tournament, but those two teams lost by a combination of seven points.
Alright, balancing this game and Easter prep has been something else, but I gotta bounce. Let’s go Huskies!!!
I get why Michigan is the favored team – Draftkings currently lists Michigan’s odds at -7.5 – they’ve got the #1 defense in the nation and a top-five offense. They are big, talented and deep two-through-five.
Why didn’t I pick Michigan to make the Final Four in my bracket? Sophomore combo guard LJ Cason’s torn ACL has turned the Wolverines into a one-PG roster, which could devastate some styles of play, but has been more of a pivot for the team than a major obstacle even though Cason was one of their best transition players and quicker guards
With or without Cason, Michigan's offense is a modern and flexible offense at its core with a lot of NBA-style reads rather than rigid sets, with multiple ball-handlers and skill up and down the lineup, regardless of position. Tons of spread pick-and-roll that prioritizes flow, spacing and decision-making than what you typically see in the Big Ten.
In Year 2 at Michigan, May’s offense is more similar to what he ran at FAU, albeit with wayyy more size. Key features include offense initiated from players, which can either create offense on their own or make the next pass or kick out once the defense collapses. Since all of their players are expected to facilitate and pass well, offense sets can be interchangeable regardless of position, even though their bigs Mara and Johnson aren’t necessarily volume spacers, they shoot well enough to respect when they stretch out to the elbow or beyond. In addition to this, all of their guards, wings and forwards [I’d exclude the two bigs I mentioned and Will Tschetter are expected to handle quite a bit, so especially since Cason has gone down with injury, one-big offenses w/ Yaxel Lendeborg at the 4 makes the 1-through-4 offensive expectations pretty positionless.
Michigan’s defense plays a structured, switching-paced offense that utilizes the roster’s overall excellent size keep things tight in the halfcourt, staying in front in their positioning and they are stoutly in the paint, led by Mara’s elite block rate (6th best in the nation) and Johnson and Lendeborg rock-solid defending in the paint. With Cason out, there’s less pressure and transition chances with effectively the defense has lost some of its versatility with fewer possessions with full court looks or disruption early in possessions. The player it has affected the most is Cadeau, as he is the team’s only true point guard so his energy is almost more conserved in the defensive end. This means that the bigger players in their now 8-man rotation need to play more conservatively late in the game, leading to more potential for fatigue against quick backcourts and/or offenses like UConn’s that move so much without the ball. For example, Karaban’s halfcourt actions has been a game-changer this tournament depleting energy from bigger power forwards like Mirkovic (6 points), Kohler (12 points) and Dailey (12 points) who also were less dangerous in the paint since Karaban’s perimeter presence opened up space for Reed to go one-on-one and cut for open looks.
To add, Michigan is a good rebounding team (top-55 rates in OR% and DR%), but nowhere near as dangerous as UConn’s previous four opponents, who were all excellent rebounding teams. Odd to say, comparatively to UCLA, Michigan State, Duke and Illinois, UConn might find the battle under the boards against a monster-sized team like Michigan less daunting.
To me, the biggest matchup for UConn exists when Consensus All-America Team selection Yaxel Lendeborg plays the 3, which occurs early in the halves as that is his spot in the starting lineup, but it’s fair to expect about 8-10 minutes with Lendenborg at the 3 and about 20 minutes of him at the 4.
Lendeborg is Michigan’s best all-around defender, who is especially elite at smothering up space off-ball. On offense, he has basically no holes and is a lot like Cameron Boozer, albeit a better slasher and creator off the dribble from the perimeter. He can play in transition, makes good reads off drives and shoots well at all levels, while also having no issues bullying smaller opponents and is good at getting second-chance shots. Thankfully, Ross has been playing very well and Stewart looks healthy, so my hope is that either of these two guys are at the 3 for most of the time Yaxel is at the 3, but I doubt Hurley will switch up starting lineups, so I expect Mullins to guard him early in each half, we’ll see.
Michigan’s scoring prowess continues in its frontcourt. 7’3 Aday Mara has improved his conditioning to the point of getting close to 30 minutes-per-game, especially in a game like last night when Mara wasn’t challenged much by Arizona’s sub-par offensive bigs. He’ll face a way bigger challenge against Reed. Looking a bit at Michigan’s loss to Purdue, Purdue’s Oscar Cluff [6’11 255] was particularly effective applying his strength and footwork under the basket, scoring 21 and drawing 11 foul shots. Cluff was particularly open thanks to Purdue’s inside-the-arc spacing as their halfcourt offense relied less on three-point attempts (just 14) and more on outside two-point attempts (43 2PAs, 60.5 2P%, 7.4 average 2PA distance) making defensive switching assignments particularly challenging for Michigan. In summary, Mara is an elite interior defender who is a good low-post scorer, but has a decent amount of skill for a 7’3 big, especially as a passer.
Starting at the 4 and backing up Mara at the 5 is Illinois transfer Morez Johnson, who has some similarities on the offensive end to David Mitrovic and is the exact same size as him. Two-way rebounding, the top eFG% in the Big Ten, and elite FT% and 2P%, Johnson is more than just a big dude who defends really well: he’s got OK floor spacing ability and is a smart passer. He’s an elite, versatile defender who uses his 7’3 wingspan and foot speed to allow him to, like Yaxel, switch one through five. Shades of Day’ron Sharpe: a stout and skilled power forward who is bigger than most 5s. There’s about a 50/50 split between his minutes at the 4 and the 5, but when he plays the 5, almost all of his minutes are with Yaxel at the 4.
Staying in the frontcourt, senior Will Tschetter backs up at the 3 and the 4, good for about 15 minutes per game as a low usage floor spacer. Offensively, he is essentially Ben Humrichous, but a worse defender.
With Cason out, Elliot Cadeau has done a nice job stepping up and is a much better player compared to his time at North Carolina. With a quick first step, Cadeau is a rock solid PNR point guard with great vision at full speed. He’s small and skinny, so he has trouble converting against more physical defenders inside the arc, but he’s greatly improved his three-point shot from a major liability at UNC to a major asset at Michigan. With the fifth highest assist rate in the Big Ten, he’s a drink stirrer, so I love having Demary matching him up. Shout out to Cadeau taking on more of an important backcourt defensive role with Cason out, and his efficiency rates are solid despite him not being a turnover generator.
The remainder of Michigan guards are medium usage, smart bigger guards that flow nicely within the offensive system and are decent defenders, so expect good versatility and unselfish two-way play.
With Cason out, Roddy Gayle, Nimari Burnett and Trey McKenney are basically the glue that holds the offense together thanks to their combination of secondary ball-handling, ability to create shots late in the clock and switchability all throughout the backcourt.
Gayle has stepped up as arguably Michigan’s de facto point guard when Cadeau is on the bench and he typically defends the best backcourt option on defense. There’s a ton of variability in his game as he’s prone to coughing up turnovers and getting cold with his shot. He’ll play 1, 2 and 3 off the bench.
Starting 2-guard Nimari Burnett is more of a low-mistake, catch-and-shoot guy who is best on offense when he’s not forced to put the floor on the deck and create off the dribble. In terms of offensive role, he’s the least versatile of the three.
Freshman Trey McKenney is another guy who has stepped up with Cason out, getting starter’s minutes as a backup 2, 3 and occasional 1. At 6’4 225, he’s built like an outside linebacker that can overpower off-the-dribble, combining strength with form to end up as one of the most efficient shooters in the Big Ten. With this current roster, when the ball is in his hands, he’s looking to score, reaching double-digits in four of the last five.
A team that likes pace, UConn can capitalize with their matchups if they can control the glass and force Michigan to play at a slower pace. UConn can win this game if they hold Michigan to the low 70s or less, which Ohio State and Wisconsin tried to do in the Big Ten tournament, but those two teams lost by a combination of seven points.
Alright, balancing this game and Easter prep has been something else, but I gotta bounce. Let’s go Huskies!!!
