Memphis to the Big East??? Really??,

[FfldCntyFan]

I was just using this as a comparison point... but, it's possible these schools in 3-5 years go to the SEC, Big10 or Big12. If the ACC loses 4 or more of its top brands, it becomes more likely Notre Dame goes to the Big10. Clearly the way in which the Clemson/FSU-ACC settlement went down, there is an increased likelihood of this happening.

Neither of the P-2 would ever consider Louisville. Clemson, Ga Tech FSU & Miami would all be redundant in the SEC (who I imagine will prioritize culling the herd before adding more schools) and I would be very surprised if the B1G would consider adding the second best property in a state where they don't own the best property.

ND's run in last year's CFP added about a dozen or more years to their independence (which had at least half a decade left prior to last year's run).

I need someone to explain why a school would pay a nine figure departure fee to move to a conference with UCF, Cincinnati and a similar media deal.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Neither of the P-2 would ever consider Louisville. Clemson, Ga Tech FSU & Miami would all be redundant in the SEC (who I imagine will prioritize culling the herd before adding more schools) and I would be very surprised if the B1G would consider adding the second best property in a state where they don't own the best property.

ND's run in last year's CFP added about a dozen or more years to their independence (which had at least half a decade left prior to last year's run).

I need someone to explain why a school would pay a nine figure departure fee to move to a conference with UCF, Cincinnati and a similar media deal.

Or...

Louisville could certainly go to the Big12 in 3+ years/after a couple of the big brands go to the SEC/Big10. The SEC could land UNC/VA and FSU/Clemson (it fits their regional footprint model and provides lift to both FB and BB and a combo of new markets and nationally important brands) while the Big10 takes Miami/GA Tech (as they fit the Big10 athletic/AAU/big market profile they always seek and gains entry to the deep south for athletic and academic recruiting grounds). If 6-8 schools leave, it forces ND's hands of having to finally go to the Big10 because by then with even larger still P2 the CFP will likely have expanded to 16 or more teams, the ND/NBC TV contract will be compromised because they will have less marquee matchups precipitating NBC to devalue the contract. And at this point with consolidated P2 power, its more likely ND's protected CFP status will be reduced/eliminated. The walls will have closed in on ND. This all might take until 2031 to happen but that's where things are headed.

I need someone to explain why a school would pay a nine figure departure fee to move to a conference with UCF, Cincinnati and a similar media deal. ~~~~ Because if the top 4 ACC tv brands (FSU, Clemson, Miami, GaTech) leave, ESPN will devalue the ACC contract and this will reduce the ACC media rights below the Big12's. The ACC will then be on the bubble as a Power conference and likely have even less protected access to the CFP. Louisville and a couple of others will then be worth more in the Big12 than the ACC remnants conference.

I'm not saying this is all guaranteed but this scenario is very possible. Private capital investments into individual schools and or into the conference coffers would be a further enabler and could make it happen sooner rather than later. We shall see.

 

[billybud]

The only way teams from the ACC move to the SEC or B1G is if ESPN, FOX, etc actually force a new league made up of 40 or so teams....

As per doing away with the SEC/Big entirely, the angst of a complete reshuffling of two historic conferences might not be overcome. Fox/ESPN might not love the Indiana-Purdue, Minnesota-Iowa, Vandy-Mississippi State type matches...but may not have the power to direct conference dissolution. We'll see when the media contracts come due in 2030.