Why is there an assumption that these guys will drop out of the lottery? If Thomas goes to KState and his team goes 20-12 he's still most likely going in the lottery AND he's making an extra 200k.
IMO, coaching and winning matters. Choosing a winning program will likely give top recruits more post season games (Conference and NCAA tournament games) to give NBA organizations more opportunities to view these players.
There are lots of highly ranked recruits who's stock drops as a result of bad coaching, and end up getting drafted lower than they expected, taking longer to get drafted or not drafted at all.
If a top recruit really wants to win, I don't know why they would want to go elsewhere. I kind a understand if they choose a different blue chip program where the path to PT seems better, the roster looks competitive and the NIL is very good, but going to a program like K State or other unproven programs just seems like a highest bidder situation. If winning is most important, then choosing UConn is a no brainer. If a recruit believes that they are a legit NBA prospect where getting proven coaching will help them realize that dream, being part of a possible 3-peat should be at the top of their decision making. Why choose a program where that won't be possible and miss out on such a historic opportunity and a proven chance to improve their game and draft potential?
My biggest concern is UConn missing out on most or all of their top targets to an array of top programs (or the Squid's Arkansas) that offer ridiculous amounts of NIL money, picking off one target after another. I'm not sure there are many that throw a ton of money and get a bunch top recruits, but maybe programs like Dook, KU, UK or Arkansas surprise me and do just that.
I just hope Hurley and staff land 2 to 4 of their top targets, that consist of one or two at most 1-and-doners and a couple 2 or 3 year players. Adding a 5 or 4/5 combo to fortify the post, a stretch-4 or 3/4 combo to replace AK, and one or two combo guards who can score, pass, defend and man the top of Hurley’s motion/multiple action offense. Is that asking for too much?