Even for those OADs that are looking to land their best one year NIL, they need to prioritize what program helps them get drafted the highest. Now there are some like Flagg and Dysbantsa that are slam dunk 1 and it really doesn’t matter where they go. For others that have a much larger delta in where they could get drafted, there is a significant difference in 3 year earnings based on where they are drafted. For instance, if you’re drafted 3rd, your 3 year guarantee nets you 26mm. If you’re pick 13, it’s 12mm. That’s a massive difference. The 3 year diff between pick 3 and pick 4 is about 2mm. That would likely be far more material sum than the difference you’d see in a 1 year NIL deal.
Net net, the large majority of top kids should prioritize where their draft stock goes highest vs NIL. I am not going to Kansas St for 100k more in NIL if I’m a projected first round OAD. My guess is schools like that end up overplaying for second tier talent year over year. Kst is likely better off saving their NIL for the portal and established men then frosh.