Media Rights Are Set to Surpass the Gate in 2018

[Seaa Blue]

Reading some stories about ESPN, I think that Rights fees are about to fall off a cliff. I think the Big 10 is going to be very disappointed in its next ESPN contract, and I would not be surprised if ESPN does not even seriously bid on the contract. The second chart makes no sense, and there is no way that Disney will allow ESPN to keep bidding up contracts when its subscriber base is shrinking.

Um, the second chart shows us the ESPN is primed to go big with the next B1G contract (even if it doesn't make sense).

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Um, the second chart shows us the ESPN is primed to go big with the next B1G contract (even if it doesn't make sense).

Do you think Disney will allow ESPN to increase content spending in a shrinking revenue environment?

 

[Kolumbo]

The number of households graph is shocking. The number of households with espn is actually shrinking. I would expect growth to slow but to actually shrink is a huge problem. I have actually found myself tuning into a cbs and nbc sports network more frequently lately.

NBA? Seriously?! "Last year, ESPN agreed as part of a renewal deal with the National Basketball Association to triple its average annual fees from $485 million to about $1.47 billion, people familiar with the deal said."
http://www.wsj.com/articles/espn-tightens-its-belt-as-pressure-on-it-mounts-1436485852

 

[Kolumbo]

How can you have revenue 20% over budget (favorable) and expenses by even with the budget but have net income be $54K below budget (unfavorable)?

Perhaps the revenue and expense ratios are related to events only, while net income includes some other extraordinary expense item? There is no other explanation. Did the roof collapse again?

 

[The Funster]

The number of households graph is shocking. The number of households with espn is actually shrinking. I would expect growth to slow but to actually shrink is a huge problem. I have actually found myself tuning into a cbs and nbc sports network more frequently lately.

Maybe college FB has reached the saturation point. You have the over the air stations, the ESPN group, CBS, NBC and Fox also have their spinoff stations with games too. This coming Saturday alone, I count 40 games either on TV or streaming.

 

[Kolumbo]

I was looking for a visual and this is from 2014. Pretty outrageous when you think about it. There are plenty of sports fans willing to pay espn, plenty not willing to pay, and then plenty of non-sports fans. The bubble is surely going to burst.
http://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/how-much-cable-subscribers-pay-per-channel-1626/

 

[CL82]

How can you have revenue 20% over budget (favorable) and expenses by even with the budget but have net income be $54K below budget (unfavorable)?

I'm guessing a big fixed expense allocation, perhaps due to the most recent update to the locker rooms, etc.

 

[Seaa Blue]

Do you think Disney will allow ESPN to increase content spending in a shrinking revenue environment?

Well, if you shrink the content, you get a shrinkage multiplier on lost subscriptions.

 

[Nostical]

This chart tells me FOX Sports1 has incentive to spend lots of money for content. Better content will allow for a rise in carriage fee. Spend more to make much more. Watch them continue to grab talent (Cowherd, etc) and content going forward such as NBA, more college football. Everyone thought the NFC was nuts going to FOX--they would get lost on the remote control. People will find the content they want to watch-- wherever it is.

 

[whaler11]

Cowherd is pulling 0.0 ratings. That's been a winner.

Nos your strategy for Fox Sports 1 is 10 years too late. Overpaying for anything is death - you can't get increases or grow the subscriber base.

Throw in the fact nobody in their right mind is putting all their eggs in the Fox basket. The coaches would murder the Big Ten leadership if they weren't on ESPN/ABC. You could flush their recruiting down the toilet if they didn't have a deal with ESPN.

BTW the NBA is locked up until 2025. So yeah they probably won't have them anytime soon.

 

[whaler11]

Reading some stories about ESPN, I think that Rights fees are about to fall off a cliff. I think the Big 10 is going to be very disappointed in its next ESPN contract, and I would not be surprised if ESPN does not even seriously bid on the contract. The second chart makes no sense, and there is no way that Disney will allow ESPN to keep bidding up contracts when its subscriber base is shrinking.

For those behind the curve on this you'd think that chart would make it obvious. This is going to be a horrific marketplace for sellers.

 

[Kolumbo]

Cowherd is pulling 0.0 ratings. That's been a winner.

Nos your strategy for Fox Sports 1 is 10 years too late. Overpaying for anything is death - you can't get increases or grow the subscriber base.

Throw in the fact nobody in their right mind is putting all their eggs in the Fox basket. The coaches would murder the Big Ten leadership if they weren't on ESPN/ABC. You could flush their recruiting down the toilet if they didn't have a deal with ESPN.

BTW the NBA is locked up until 2025. So yeah they probably won't have them anytime soon.

Well, Fox does have Erin Andrews. What were Cowherds real ratings? Fox may be able to continue to get some former espn "talent" on the cheap.
http://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/colin-cowherd-bashes-espn-for-being-too-disney/272943

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Cowherd is pulling 0.0 ratings. That's been a winner.

Nos your strategy for Fox Sports 1 is 10 years too late. Overpaying for anything is death - you can't get increases or grow the subscriber base.

Throw in the fact nobody in their right mind is putting all their eggs in the Fox basket. The coaches would murder the Big Ten leadership if they weren't on ESPN/ABC. You could flush their recruiting down the toilet if they didn't have a deal with ESPN.

BTW the NBA is locked up until 2025. So yeah they probably won't have them anytime soon.

I still don't get your obsession with numbers on a cable dial. Do you own a beeper store?

 

[Slasher]

Did you just call Cowherd talent??

 

[whaler11]

I still don't get your obsession with numbers on a cable dial. Do you own a beeper store?

I don't get why you can't see the numbers and understand how much they still matter.

For example last week Northwestern and Nebraska had double the viewership of Texas and Kansas State in the same window. Not ESPN to FS1 - ESPN2 to FS1.

Pitt and Syracuse on ESPNU. U! Drew 100k more than Kansas and Oklahoma State on FS1.

ESPN still dominates how sports are perceived in the country. A college conference that doesn't have a realtionship with them is walking into a competitive disadvantage.

Rutgers got double the viewership of Utah/USC last week - because they were on ABC and not Fox. Double... Rutgers.

 

[Kolumbo]

I don't get why you can't see the numbers and understand how much they still matter.

For example last week Northwestern and Nebraska had double the viewership of Texas and Kansas State in the same window. Not ESPN to FS1 - ESPN2 to FS1.

Pitt and Syracuse on ESPNU. U! Drew 100k more than Kansas and Oklahoma State on FS1.

ESPN still dominates how sports are perceived in the country. A college conference that doesn't have a realtionship with them is walking into a competitive disadvantage.

Rutgers got double the viewership of Utah/USC last week - because they were on ABC and not Fox. Double... Rutgers.

Interesting numbers but if Rutgers got double, it's because it was an away game for Ohio State, and that is the only reason.

 

[Dooley]

Whaler's point happens every week in every sport...not just last week's football games. Mediocre games in the ACC/B1G aired on ESPN/ABC trump whatever the PAC/B12 are running on FOX/FS1. The true eye opener will be how much of a ratings gap occurs when TCU plays Baylor (probably the best game left to be played in either conference if both are undefeated) and that game goes up against a couple of garbage ACC/B1G games.

 

[J187Money]

Cowherd is pulling 0.0 ratings. That's been a winner. Nos your strategy for Fox Sports 1 is 10 years too late. Overpaying for anything is death - you can't get increases or grow the subscriber base. Throw in the fact nobody in their right mind is putting all their eggs in the Fox basket. The coaches would murder the Big Ten leadership if they weren't on ESPN/ABC. You could flush their recruiting down the toilet if they didn't have a deal with ESPN. BTW the NBA is locked up until 2025. So yeah they probably won't have them anytime soon.

His radio deal is profitable. The FS1 is a throw-in to get eyeballs to the channel. Actually smart the way it was structured.

 

[Seaa Blue]

His radio deal is profitable. The FS1 is a throw-in to get eyeballs to the channel. Actually smart the way it was structured.

Profitable for whom?

 

[J187Money]

Profitable for whom?

Why would you assume that someone would sign him to a deal where they won't make money?

 

[whaler11]

His radio deal is profitable. The FS1 is a throw-in to get eyeballs to the channel. Actually smart the way it was structured.

Yeah I know it's just something to put on and they know nobody is going to watch and they hired him for radio - but we aren't talking about radio wars here - nobody is worried about radio right fees.

Cowherd isn't going to make up any ground on ESPN TV for FS1.

 

[J187Money]

Yeah I know it's just something to put on and they know nobody is going to watch and they hired him for radio - but we aren't talking about radio wars here - nobody is worried about radio right fees. Cowherd isn't going to make up any ground on ESPN TV for FS1.

It will get some people to at least find FS1 on the dial. I know I might look for it. And I have no idea where to find it now. I think he may also get some of the inventory on the TV broadcast so there is an incentive for him personally to drive ratings.

 

[Kolumbo]

The beauty of technology is the remote control, search, and favorites. The actual channel numbers and "location on the dial" are becoming meaningless. In the "old" days, it was beneficial to be channel numbers 30, 31, 32, whatever espn chose. But when I am regularly entering 1112 or 1643 or 1852, the actual numbers really don't mean anything. Especially when the past couple generations learn computers when they are 2. It will only get easier to find your game on whatever device you are watching.

 

[whaler11]

It will get some people to at least find FS1 on the dial. I know I might look for it. And I have no idea where to find it now. I think he may also get some of the inventory on the TV broadcast so there is an incentive for him personally to drive ratings.

Well Neilsen doesn't certify ratings <100,000 viewers and that is where his TV ratings are.

So good luck selling against those numbers?

 

[whaler11]

The beauty of technology is the remote control, search, and favorites. The actual channel numbers and "location on the dial" are becoming meaningless. In the "old" days, it was beneficial to be channel numbers 30, 31, 32, whatever espn chose. But when I am regularly entering 1112 or 1643 or 1852, the actual numbers really don't mean anything. Especially when the past couple generations learn computers when they are 2. It will only get easier to find your game on whatever device you are watching.

Yeah the ratings tell a completely different story but it's not like numerical evidence means much around here once people have their minds made up.